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Consumer franchise

COVID-19 drove a consumer spending shift to “nesting” categories in 2020. We expect increasing consumer mobility to drive a wallet normalization, with apparel/beauty the biggest beneficiaries, and home categories most at risk.

There is a positive consumer spending environment. We forecast personal consumption expenditures to be up +20% YOY in 2Q21 and +12% in 2H21. We also forecast strong growth (+10%) through 1Q22. This is due to economic growth and the consumer draining the high savings rates.

Recent Chase credit card trends are encouraging. Transactions have increased approximately 13% on average versus pre-COVID levels since early May. Supermarkets have proven resilient, with double-digit growth largely sustained into June.