Video Series:

Consumer franchise

A closed restaurant is almost always reopened as another restaurant, and we expect supply to be largely caught up by the end of 2022.

Casual dining is likely to regain most on-premise business while holding onto a permanent 5-10% uplift from off-premise. For quick service restaurants, holding onto ticket gains is key as the consumer pivots back to normalized single-order transactions.

Labor availability is the number one risk for recovery, with approximately 1.4 million job openings (April 2021). Restaurants normally represent approximately 8% of total U.S. employment (2019). The industry must capture >20% of the approximately 5.4 million lapsed workforce (May 2021) to regain 2019 sector employment levels.