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Despite an uptick in optimism over the past six months, midsize business leaders in the United States are far less optimistic about the national economy now than they were in the years before the pandemic.
According to our 2023 midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey, 29% of leaders have a positive outlook about the U.S. economy today, up from 22% in January. From 2012 to early 2020, however, the average level of optimism was 66%.
Attitudes about the global economy also remain low. Only 15% of leaders are optimistic about the global economy today. And while that is up from January (8%), it is much lower than before the pandemic, when the average level of optimism was almost 30%.
Concerns about a recession are mixed. Nearly half (45%) expect an economic downturn this year or believe we are already in one, while 20% are unsure about a recession.
But there are plenty of bright spots in the report. Most leaders (67%) are still optimistic about their own company’s performance. More than half expect their sales and profits to increase this year. And 85% expect to add or keep staff.
On the policy front, two-thirds of leaders believe the Fed should pause rate hikes; only 16% believe the Fed should raise rates. Even fewer (11%) think rates should be cut.
Outlook
Geopolitical unrest: Assessing market implications
Apr 19, 2024
Some investors worry Middle East tensions could impact inflation, making it tricky for central banks. Top Market Takeaways digs into what we’re watching and what it could mean for investors.
Outlook
Does it matter if the Fed cuts?
Apr 12, 2024
If growth is solid and inflation doesn’t reaccelerate, we continue to see opportunity for investors.
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March 2024 CPI report: Slightly increased inflation may not sit well with the Fed
Apr 11, 2024
The March 2024 CPI report will not sit well with the Fed as inflation is slightly up. Learn more here.
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March 2024 jobs report: 303,000 jobs added, marking an acceleration
Apr 08, 2024
The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March, signaling a still strong labor market.
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Zooming out to see the 3 largest trends of Q1
Apr 05, 2024
Inflation, growth and the markets – here’s what you should know now.
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Eye on the market: The good, the bad and the ugly: On tech valuations, AI, energy and U.S. politics
Apr 02, 2024
The latest Eye on The Market discusses the good, the bad and the ugly with tech valuations, AI, energy and U.S. politics.
Outlook
Bubble or bliss? Why we think stocks could grind higher.
Mar 28, 2024
The market has made over 20 new highs this year. Here’s what’s driving it and why the gains could continue.
Outlook
The race to rate cuts is on: What it means for you
Mar 22, 2024
Central banks have given the go ahead on rate cuts. Is your portfolio ready?
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