Executive summary
Our midyear Business Leaders Outlook Pulse survey revealed a notable decline in economic optimism among U.S. middle market executives, yet confidence in business performance remains strong. Optimism about the national economy has fallen by more than half, dropping from 65%, as reported six months ago, to 32% in June. Optimism about the global economy has also dropped by half, from 29% to 15%, and optimism about local economies fell to 35%—a 24 percentage point decrease.
Despite these declines in broader economic sentiment, confidence in individual business performance remains strong, with 58% of executives still optimistic about their own companies. Most (78%) also expect revenue and sales to increase or remain the same, and 72% expect profits to increase or remain the same.
This resilience underscores business leaders’ determination to navigate challenges and pursue growth opportunities even in uncertain times.
“Middle market businesses are navigating recent market volatility and uncertainty with remarkable resilience. While optimism for the global and national economies has tempered for the near term, business leaders are balancing this with executing their strategies for the long term.”
Ginger Chambless
Head of Research, Commercial Banking
Economic outlook and expectations
Optimism declines as recession fears return
Business leaders’ recession expectations have risen compared to six months ago. A majority of executives (71%) did not expect a recession at the end of 2024, but now 32% of respondents anticipate a recession or believe we’re already in one.
Recession expectations for second half of 2025
32%
Of business executives expect or believe we are already in a recession, up from 14% at the end of 2024
Economic outlook for second half of 2025
The chart titled “Economic outlook for second half of 2025” compares data from June 2025 to December 2024 across various economic categories. In June 2025, the global economy outlook shows business leaders to be 15% optimistic, 48% neutral and 37% pessimistic, compared to December 2024 when it was 29% optimistic, 51% neutral and 20% pessimistic. For the national economy, June 2025 data indicates 32% optimistic, 25% neutral and 42% pessimistic, whereas December 2024 data was 65% optimistic, 21% neutral and 14% pessimistic. The local/regional economy in June 2025 is 35% optimistic, 38% neutral and 27% pessimistic, contrasting with previous figures of 59% optimistic, 30% neutral and 11% pessimistic. The outlook for industry performance in June 2025 is 38% optimistic, 33% neutral and 29% pessimistic, while December 2024 showed 60% optimistic, 28% neutral and 13% pessimistic. Lastly, company performance in June 2025 is 58% optimistic, 28% neutral and 15% pessimistic, compared to December 2024 where it was 75% optimistic, 19% neutral, and 6% pessimistic. Overall, the data indicates a decline in optimism across all categories from December 2024 to June 2025, with an increase in pessimism, particularly notable in the national economy and global economy outlooks.
*Values may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Challenges and opportunities
Obstacles remain, but drivers have shifted
Between December 2024 and June 2025, revenue and economic uncertainty remained a top concern for business leaders. However, the other most frequently cited challenge has shifted. In December 2024, labor issues (46%), revenue and sales growth (39%) and uncertain economic conditions (37%) were the biggest concerns. In the midyear survey, uncertain economic conditions was the external factor cited the most (55%), followed by revenue and sales growth (41%) and tariffs (41%).
This shift underscores the dynamic nature of the business environment, with attention moving away from workforce challenges to economic and policy uncertainty.
Leaders are resolute, charging ahead with strategic plans
Despite challenges and decreasing economic optimism, business leaders remain resolute in their strategic planning. Policy uncertainty (74%), customer demand shifts and market volatility (both 37%) are the main external factors causing changes to strategic plans.
Our survey data suggests that while some business leaders are delaying strategic plans into 2026 (23%), most are maintaining their timelines for 2025 (21%) or proceeding as planned with no changes at all (40%). Some are accelerating their plans (14%), adapting to the challenging economic landscape.
This determination to forge ahead with growth strategies—even in the face of uncertainty—reflects a resilient mindset among middle market executives.
Have your strategic plans been impacted by external factors?
The chart titled “Have your strategic plans been impacted by external factors?” presents data on the impact of external factors on business leaders’ strategic plans. The overall trend shows that the majority of respondents, 40%, reported no change to their plans. A significant portion, 23%, indicated that their plans have been delayed into 2026, while 21% mentioned that their plans are delayed but on track for 2025. Additionally, 14% of respondents have accelerated their plans, and a small fraction, 1%, have canceled their plans entirely.
*Values may not add to 100% due to rounding.
About the survey
The annual and midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey series provides snapshots of the challenges and opportunities facing executives of midsize companies in the United States. These companies, with annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million, span a variety of industries and business types, from family-run businesses to seed-stage and high-growth startups.
718 respondents completed the online survey between June 4 and June 18, 2025. Results are within statistical parameters for validity with an error rate of plus or minus 3.7% at the 95% confidence interval.
Helping midsize businesses grow
With a No. 1 ranking in overall middle market client satisfaction1 and a presence in more than 135 U.S. markets and worldwide, our middle market bankers and specialists deliver proactive, local support combined with global expertise. When you bank with J.P. Morgan, you gain access to all of our resources, from expertise and insights to practical strategies and simple solutions.
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Visit jpmorgan.com/commercial-banking/legal-disclaimer for disclosures and disclaimers related to this content.
References
2023 Coalition Greenwich Excellence Awards
