Optimism about the economy has plummeted among midsize business leaders in the United States, according to our 2023 Business Leaders Outlook survey. Only 8% have a positive outlook about the global economy today; a year ago, that number stood at 34%.
Attitudes about the national economy also have changed. Roughly one-fourth (22%) are optimistic about the U.S. economy this year, down sharply from 50% in 2022. Notably, 65% of business leaders in the United States said they expect a recession in 2023.
Inflation continues to be an issue, with the overwhelming majority (91%) of leaders saying their costs are rising. In response, more than 80% of businesses have passed a portion of their higher costs onto consumers and buyers.
But the news isn’t all doom and gloom. Most leaders (66%) are still optimistic about their own company’s performance. Nearly 90% expect to add or keep employees. And supply chain challenges have eased somewhat: 39% said it has gotten easier over the past 12 months to source materials and ship goods.
Started in 2011, the annual and midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey series provides snapshots of the challenges and opportunities facing executives of midsize companies in the United States.
This year, 791 respondents completed the online survey between Nov. 29 and Dec. 13, 2022. Of those respondents, 157 self-identified as working in commercial real estate. The 2023 survey captures those responses for the inaugural Business Leaders Outlook: Commercial Real Estate.
Results are within statistical parameters for validity; the error rate is plus or minus 7.9% at the 95% confidence interval.
The share of midsize U.S. business leaders who are optimistic about the national and global economies has fallen steadily since peaking in 2018. This year, in fact, marks the lowest levels of optimism since the Business Leaders Outlook survey began.
The vast majority of businesses (86%) expect their revenues to grow or hold steady in 2023. But a smaller percentage (76%) expect their capital expenditures to increase or remain the same.
Leaders generally don’t expect many changes due to recent elections. The one outlier? Inflation, with more than half thinking it will get worse.
U.S. business leaders face a litany of challenges today. Among them: persistent inflation, snarled supply chains and a shortage of workers.
Started in 2011, the annual and midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey series provides snapshots of the challenges and opportunities facing executives of midsize companies in the United States.
This year, 791 respondents completed the online survey between Nov. 29 and Dec. 13, 2022. Results are within statistical parameters for validity; the error rate is plus or minus 3.5% at the 95% confidence interval.
Government: 1%; healthcare: 6%; higher education: 1%; home services: 2%; industrials: 7%; manufacturing: 26%; media/entertainment/advertising: 3%; nonprofit: 3%; oil and gas: 2%; other professional/non-finance: 7%; real estate: 8%; restaurants/food services: 3%; technology: 7%; transportation/logistics 4%; wholesale/retail: 12%; other: 9%
Note: Some numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
John Simmons
Head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking
Morgan McGrath
Head of International Banking Commercial Banking, J.P. Morgan
Ginger Chambless
Head of Research Commercial Banking, J.P. Morgan
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Visit jpmorgan.com/cb-disclaimer for disclosures and disclaimers related to this content.
Midyear survey
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