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Optimism about the economy has plummeted among midsize business leaders in the United States, according to our 2023 Business Leaders Outlook survey. Only 8% have a positive outlook about the global economy today; a year ago, that number stood at 34%.

Attitudes about the national economy also have changed. Roughly one-fourth (22%) are optimistic about the U.S. economy this year, down sharply from 50% in 2022. Notably, 65% of business leaders in the United States said they expect a recession in 2023. 

Inflation continues to be an issue, with the overwhelming majority (91%) of leaders saying their costs are rising. In response, more than 80% of businesses have passed a portion of their higher costs onto consumers and buyers.

But the news isn’t all doom and gloom. Most leaders (66%) are still optimistic about their own company’s performance. Nearly 90% expect to add or keep employees. And supply chain challenges have eased somewhat: 39% said it has gotten easier over the past 12 months to source materials and ship goods.

About the survey

Started in 2011, the annual and midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey series provides snapshots of the challenges and opportunities facing executives of midsize companies in the United States.

This year, 791 respondents completed the online survey between Nov. 29 and Dec. 13, 2022. Of those respondents, 157 self-identified as working in commercial real estate. The 2023 survey captures those responses for the inaugural Business Leaders Outlook: Commercial Real Estate.

Results are within statistical parameters for validity; the error rate is plus or minus 7.9% at the 95% confidence interval.


Economic outlook and expectations

Less than 40% of U.S. business leaders are optimistic about the global, national and local economies. But their pessimism doesn’t carry over to how they feel about their own companies.

Economic outlook for 2023

Optimism on the decline

The share of midsize U.S. business leaders who are optimistic about the national and global economies has fallen steadily since peaking in 2018. This year, in fact, marks the lowest levels of optimism since the Business Leaders Outlook survey began.

National and global optimism

Bullish on their own businesses

The vast majority of businesses (86%) expect their revenues to grow or hold steady in 2023. But a smaller percentage (76%) expect their capital expenditures to increase or remain the same.

Business expectations

Election effects

Leaders generally don’t expect many changes due to recent elections. The one outlier? Inflation, with more than half thinking it will get worse.

Sentiment following the 2022 elections

Business challenges

U.S. business leaders face a litany of challenges today. Among them: persistent inflation, snarled supply chains and a shortage of workers.

Top ways companies are adapting to inflation
What’s driving up the cost of doing business
Top responses to the labor shortage
Top external business threats
Considering investing in renewable sources of energy
Cyberattacks experienced in last 6 months

International plans 

45% conduct business outside the U.S.
Types of international activities
Top international business concerns

Social responsibility

Top areas of focus within corporate responsibility
Top objectives motivating corporate responsibility

Business transitions and growth plans

Plans for business transfer
Timeline to transfer business
Growth strategies for the next 12 months

About the survey

Started in 2011, the annual and midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey series provides snapshots of the challenges and opportunities facing executives of midsize companies in the United States. 

This year, 791 respondents completed the online survey between Nov. 29 and Dec. 13, 2022. Results are within statistical parameters for validity; the error rate is plus or minus 3.5% at the 95% confidence interval.

Who took the survey
Company size by number of employees
Company size by annual revenue

Company by industry

Government: 1%; healthcare: 6%; higher education: 1%; home services: 2%; industrials: 7%; manufacturing: 26%; media/entertainment/advertising: 3%; nonprofit: 3%; oil and gas: 2%; other professional/non-finance: 7%; real estate: 8%; restaurants/food services: 3%; technology: 7%; transportation/logistics 4%; wholesale/retail: 12%; other: 9%

Note: Some numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Our experts

Contributors

John Simmons, Head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking

John Simmons

Head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking

Morgan McGrath, Head of International Banking, Commercial Banking , J.P. Morgan

Morgan McGrath

Head of International Banking Commercial Banking, J.P. Morgan

Ginger Chambless, Head of Research, Commercial Banking, J.P. Morgan

Ginger Chambless

Head of Research Commercial Banking, J.P. Morgan

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Visit jpmorgan.com/cb-disclaimer for disclosures and disclaimers related to this content.