Will spatial computing be the next payments battleground?

Then, at the end of 2022, ChatGPT launched and the metaverse hype cycle quieted down, almost overnight.² But don’t confuse the end of the noise with the end of the story. The field remains a major preoccupation for the tech world. “Many companies are continuing to heavily invest in the hardware,” says Ken Moore, Chief Innovation Officer at Mastercard. “So the sector itself is still set for some pretty significant growth. One stat I’ve seen is that the market could hit just a little bit over $620 billion by 2032.³ So that’s pretty substantive.”

Many still believe that spatial computing has the potential to transform how we interact with the world around us. In healthcare, for instance, AR and VR are already being used to train medical professionals, simulate surgeries and provide remote consultations. In education, these technologies offer immersive learning experiences that can make complex subjects more accessible and engaging. Moore suggests that a major future use-case will be entertainment—especially sports. “When you sit at home on your couch and you watch a game on TV, you see things that you don’t in the stadium,” he says. “You get a data layer of statistics and visual analysis.” What if that could be brought to live sports, enhancing your understanding of the game in real time as you watch in the stadium? And, conversely, what if the immersion of a live sporting event could be brought into your living room? “I think you can start to create really interesting experiences as you bring the physical to the digital and the digital to the physical. Integrating spatial computing with AI will allow our realities to merge, creating new immersive experiences that transform how we interact with the world.”

For the companies pioneering spatial computing hardware, it’s not just innovation for innovation’s sake. There’s a motivating factor that is often overlooked: payments revenue. The thesis is that people will want to transact in spatial realms, and those that make the hardware will earn a cut of these payments. A comparison to smartphones is helpful. If you buy something from the App Store, or make an in-app purchase on your iPhone, Apple collects a fee up to 30% of the purchase.⁴ In 2024, more than $150 billion was spent on in-app purchases.⁵

The use-cases for metaverse payments range from the obvious—paying for access to spatial apps, making in-app purchases, buying items you have previewed in AR or VR—to the novel. Imagine buying cosmetic customizations that change how you appear to others when they look at you through their smart glasses. Or opening the door of your fridge, seeing it (via your headset) stocked with virtual items you normally buy but have run out of, and touching the ones you want to have delivered tomorrow. Or watching football in a VR stadium, and placing a bet on the action as it unfolds simply by issuing a voice command.

What would make such experiences so compelling is the seamlessness. The direction of travel for computing is towards ease-of-use, explains futurist, author and entrepreneur Brett King. “And the easiest form of a computer to use,” says King, “is one where you don’t have any screen or a keyboard, or any input devices—just ubiquitous compute power.” AI agents, with their ability to plan and execute multistage tasks, may be key to unlocking this frictionless paradigm, as they reduce the required level of user interaction.

For this vision to become mass-market reality, there are several key challenges to overcome. The first is in hardware. A headset that people want to wear for an extended period of time can’t be bulky; it will likely need to take the form of smart glasses. This will have to combine precision optics with a powerful computer and a long-lasting battery, yet somehow also be affordable and small in form factor. Current executions are either bulky but powerful, or lightweight but rudimentary. Moore also notes that 6G wireless technology will be required “to kind of give us the connectivity and the low latency that these virtual worlds will need.”

King is bullish that these technical challenges will eventually be tackled. “We are going to be able to get to pass-through AR glasses that are very high fidelity,” he says. “Right now, it costs $30,000, but within five years, the glasses will be cheaper than a smartphone.” Even then, the hardware itself might never need to make a profit: the manufacturers of some of the world’s most popular game consoles make a loss on every unit sold, but make that money back later through games sold via their virtual stores.⁶

A second hurdle is a pair of critical issues that need to be addressed: the development of universal standards and privacy concerns. Universal standards are needed for interoperability so that different systems can seamlessly work together and there is some aspect of quality assurance for customers. Privacy concerns around data collection and user tracking also need to be addressed, given how closely these platforms are designed to enmesh with the user’s life.

The third hurdle, however, is more nebulous: how to persuade people to actually wear the things? Ori Inbar, Co-founder and CEO of AWE and Super Ventures, points out that 35% of U.S. adults already use some form of mobile-based augmented reality, and of these, 80% use it at least monthly.⁷ “They use it for shopping, playing, learning how to put on makeup,” he says. This suggests converting them to metaverse-style AR may be possible. But more must-have use cases will need to be found for dedicated spatial computing devices to become ubiquitous, “all-day” devices that users wear for hours at a time.

If that happens, however, it could redefine our digital—and indeed physical—experiences. Whether it’s enhanced social interactions, innovative business models, or novel forms of entertainment, a new world would dawn. And, with it, a vast realm of economic connections that, while virtual in nature, would have very real business implications.