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By Jacob Manoukian

U.S. Head of Investment Strategy

By Jacob Manoukian

In 2022, cash was tough to beat. A bear market in stocks, a historic sell-off in bonds and uncertainty over the war in Ukraine seemed to justify a flight to the safety of cash. So too did one of the fastest rate hiking cycles in Federal Reserve (Fed) history. While every hike caused stocks and longer-term bonds to lose value, they also increased the appeal of cash and short-term Treasuries.

By the end of last year, Treasury bills (T-bills) sported a yield of over 4.5%, money market fund assets reached an all-time high of almost $5 trillion, and American households held over $1 trillion in excess savings.

Cash yields have hit a 15-year high

Yield to worst* on Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Bill Index

This chart shows the yield to worst of the Bloomberg Treasury Bills Index from 2003 to 2023. It began at 1.2% and dipped to 0.8% by June 2003. It then rose to a series high of 5.2% in February 2007. It fell to 0.1% by December 2008 and remained there until around October 2015. It rose again to 2.4% by March 2019 then fell to 0.0% by March 2020. By February 2023, it skyrocketed to 4.6%.

Yield to worst* on Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Bill Index

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of February 2, 2023. *Yield to worst is a bond’s lowest possible yield absent default. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Cash and T-bills do offer an attractive yield, and they certainly play an important role in a financial plan. But we caution against holding too much cash in 2023. We’d point to three key reasons:

  • Inflation—Whatever the prevailing market yields, over the long term, inflation tends to erode the purchasing power of cash. Any capital that isn’t necessary for liquidity needs should probably find a home in an investment strategy.
  • Falling rates—We expect short-term and long-term rates to fall over the near term. This means that most investors are probably better off locking in today’s yields rather than rolling over T-bills year after year. Yes, a cash yield of over 4.5% seems tempting today. But look ahead. Those yields are unlikely to last, in our view.
  • Stock and bond return potential—We see better return opportunities in assets other than cash and T-bills. We expect both core bonds and equities to outperform cash this year, whether or not the economy goes into recession.

Purchasing power and the pain of inflation

While cash is a critical part of any investor’s plan, there’s obviously a cost to holding too much of it. To help our clients identify the appropriate amount for their needs, we suggest they think through its four uses. Decide how much you need:

  • To provide operating cash
  • To serve as a psychological safety net 
  • To earmark for upcoming big-ticket purchases
  • To make an opportunistic investment

It’s a personal choice, and the “right” amount of cash will differ for everyone.

Of course, it’s important to keep in mind how much purchasing power your cash will lose over time. Over the long term, we think cash will yield about 2.4%, while inflation will run a little higher, at ~2.6%1. In other words, even before taxes, cash is unlikely to keep up with higher prices. We expect other asset classes—all 57 that we track—will outpace inflation over the next 10–15 years.

Cash is unlikely to keep up with inflation in the long term

Annualized long-term expected return, 2022 vs. 2023 forecasts, %

This chart shows the J.P. Morgan Asset Management 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions annualized expected return in 2022 and 2023 for cash and inflation. For cash, 2022 was 1.3% and 2023 2.4%. For inflation, 2.3% and 2.6%.

Annualized long-term expected return, 2022 vs. 2023 forecasts, %

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. Data as of September 30, 2022. Note: The left bars represent 2022 estimates, and the right bars represent 2023 estimates.

Locking in today’s yields to prepare for lower rates

A yield above 4.5% for cash and cash-like instruments may look good now, but we don’t think those yields will last. The Fed seems to agree: The central bank’s most recent projections imply the Fed expects that sometime in 2024 it will start lowering rates gradually back to 2.5%.

If the Fed were to follow that playbook, investors over the next five years would be better off locking in the yield on a municipal bond rather than rolling over T-bills on an after-tax basis.

We think investors should lock in yields now before they fall

Federal funds rate, % Projected annualized return, %

There are two charts side-by-side. The left chart shows the federal funds rate from 2015 to 2023 and two projections into 2029, one based on a softish landing that the FOMC expects, and one that is a mild recession that JPM private bank expects. First, the federal funds rate started at 0.3% and rose to 2.5% in December 2018. It then stayed there until July 2019 when it then fell to 0.3% by March 2020. It skyrocketed to 4.8% by February 2023. From there, the softish landing projects it to reach 5.2% by March and fall to 2.5% by September 2026. On the other hand, the mild recession sees the fed funds rate falling immediately to 1.9% by September 2024 before rising back to 2.5% in September 2026. On the right side is projected returns of Treasury bills for both the softish landing and recession case. The 5-year projected annualized return in a softish landing is 3.8%, and for recession 3.0%. The 10-year projected annualized return is 3.1% for the softish landing and 2.7% for the recession. This compares to the 5- and 10-year Treasury yields current at 3.5%, and the 5- and 10-year Muni tax-equivalent yield near 4.3%.

Federal funds rate, % Projected annualized return, %

Sources: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Each scenario assumes bills are rolled at the projected federal funds rate. TEY = Tax Equivalent Yield, assumes a 40.8% tax rate.

What’s more, we think the Fed will likely start lowering rates even sooner and will move more aggressively than its projections signal. If we’re correct, investors may want to move quickly to lock in yields before they fall.

Recession or no recession: Better return prospects in stocks or bonds

We see a relatively high probability of a U.S. recession later this year. In that case, core investment grade fixed income would most likely outperform cash or T-bills. Even during the Global Financial Crisis, core fixed income returned 7%, while T-bills only returned 2%.  

Let’s say the U.S. economy manages a “soft landing” this year and avoids recession. Risk assets such as equities, preferred stocks and high yield bonds could probably outperform. So far this year, we’ve seen a preview of what a soft landing could mean for markets. Global equities have gained 8%2. Core and high yield bonds have returned around 2.5% and 4%, respectively3. All are on track to outpace cash and T-bills.

There is one scenario in which T-bills could outperform: inflation proves to be sticky and the Fed keeps hiking. This seems unlikely, especially given recent economic data, which show cooling inflation and slowing growth.

But if this scenario does come to pass, we think higher rates would prove temporary, and the eventual downturn would deepen. It would still probably make sense to build a position in core fixed income even if we did see sticky inflation this year.

So step back. Think again about how much liquidity you really need. If you have excess capital in cash and cash equivalents, we see a range of options across the risk spectrum that could potentially give you higher returns over the long run.

We can help

Your J.P. Morgan team can help you reassess how much cash you need and where excess capital might be deployed to reach your family’s goals.

References

1.

Source: JPMorgan Asset Management. Data as of September 30, 2022.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

Hypothetical or simulated future performance results have certain inherent limitations. No representation is made that profits or losses similar to those which may be shown herein will be achieved. Please contact your JPMorgan representative for further information. Hypothetical future performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Actual results and risks may vary depending on specific market circumstances.

The Bloomberg US Treasury Bill Index tracks the market for treasury bills issued by the US government. US Treasury bills are issued in fixed maturity terms of 4, 13, 26 and 52 weeks. The US Treasury Bill Index is a component of the US Short Treasury Index along with US Treasury notes and bonds that have fallen below one year to maturity.

For illustrative purposes only. Estimates, forecasts and comparisons are as of the dates stated in the material. Indices are not investment products and may not be considered for investment.

Simulated performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

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