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Despite an uptick in optimism over the past six months, midsize business leaders in the United States are far less optimistic about the national economy now than they were in the years before the pandemic.
According to our 2023 midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey, 29% of leaders have a positive outlook about the U.S. economy today, up from 22% in January. From 2012 to early 2020, however, the average level of optimism was 66%.
Attitudes about the global economy also remain low. Only 15% of leaders are optimistic about the global economy today. And while that is up from January (8%), it is much lower than before the pandemic, when the average level of optimism was almost 30%.
Concerns about a recession are mixed. Nearly half (45%) expect an economic downturn this year or believe we are already in one, while 20% are unsure about a recession.
But there are plenty of bright spots in the report. Most leaders (67%) are still optimistic about their own company’s performance. More than half expect their sales and profits to increase this year. And 85% expect to add or keep staff.
On the policy front, two-thirds of leaders believe the Fed should pause rate hikes; only 16% believe the Fed should raise rates. Even fewer (11%) think rates should be cut.
Outlook
Can markets climb the wall of worry?
Sep 29, 2023
From government shutdown fears to surging bond yields, there’s plenty for investors to fret about – but there’s also reason for optimism.
Outlook
Eye on the Market: What Was I Made For: Large language models in the real world
Sep 26, 2023
Real-world use of generative artificial intelligence models are impacting the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. Learn more here.
Outlook
Market thoughts: Start making sense
Sep 22, 2023
Markets haven’t seemed to make much sense this year. They’re starting to make sense again.
Outlook
Should you stay stashed in cash?
Sep 22, 2023
With the Fed keeping rates “higher for longer,” cash may be a competitive option right now. But cash comes at a cost, and other assets could offer investors even better opportunities.
Outlook
September 2023 Fed meeting: Hitting pause on rate hikes
Sep 20, 2023
The Fed announced they are keeping rates as-is, but the possibility of another hike before the end of the year remains.
Outlook
Gas prices are going up: Should you be worried?
Sep 15, 2023
While risks remain, we think prices could ease in the months ahead. To us, this means the consumer should be okay and inflation should continue to cool over the next year.
Outlook
August 2023 CPI report: Gas prices drive inflation higher to 3.7%
Sep 14, 2023
A 10.6% spike in gasoline prices contributed to a 0.6% increase in the August Consumer Price Index (CPI). Read on to learn more.
Outlook
Catalysts through year-end: 5 things to watch for
Sep 08, 2023
From the Fed to risks of reaccelerating inflation and a government shutdown, here are the main catalysts that we think will drive markets.
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