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Despite an uptick in optimism over the past six months, midsize business leaders in the United States are far less optimistic about the national economy now than they were in the years before the pandemic.
According to our 2023 midyear Business Leaders Outlook survey, 29% of leaders have a positive outlook about the U.S. economy today, up from 22% in January. From 2012 to early 2020, however, the average level of optimism was 66%.
Attitudes about the global economy also remain low. Only 15% of leaders are optimistic about the global economy today. And while that is up from January (8%), it is much lower than before the pandemic, when the average level of optimism was almost 30%.
Concerns about a recession are mixed. Nearly half (45%) expect an economic downturn this year or believe we are already in one, while 20% are unsure about a recession.
But there are plenty of bright spots in the report. Most leaders (67%) are still optimistic about their own company’s performance. More than half expect their sales and profits to increase this year. And 85% expect to add or keep staff.
On the policy front, two-thirds of leaders believe the Fed should pause rate hikes; only 16% believe the Fed should raise rates. Even fewer (11%) think rates should be cut.
Outlook
September 2024 jobs report: 254,000 jobs added, defying expectations
Oct 07, 2024
U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated sharply beyond economists’ expectations, solidifying our strategists’ view that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting.
Outlook
Eye on the Market: Mind the gap
Sep 30, 2024
In this edition of Eye on the Market, Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, looks at presidential candidate policy differences and implications for investors.
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Embracing opportunity in uncertain and volatile times
Sep 26, 2024
J.P. Morgan Wealth Management hosted a webcast breaking down current trends and their impact on markets. Here’s how investors can make smart decisions as 2024 comes to an end.
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Navigating political uncertainty: Potential investment implications for you and your business
Sep 26, 2024
J.P. Morgan Wealth Management held an online event to discuss how investors can stay on track amid uncertain times. Discover the key takeaways from the webcast.
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September 2024 Fed meeting: Fed cuts rates by half point to support economy
Sep 19, 2024
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time in four years, thanks to welcome progress on its dual goals of restoring price stability and achieving maximum employment.
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August 2024 CPI Report: Inflation cooled, edging closer to the Fed's target
Sep 12, 2024
The August 2024 CPI report moderated to 2.5% year-over-year, cementing the likelihood that the Fed will begin cutting rates next week.
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August 2024 Jobs Report: 142,000 jobs added, an acceleration from July
Sep 09, 2024
U.S. job growth accelerated in August, solidifying the case for a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Outlook
Eye on the Market: A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market
Sep 03, 2024
The latest Eye on the Market: A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market explores the outlook for an AI-driven US equity market.
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