Global disruptions, strong demand

Overall, these disruptions have been more acute than we expected, driven primarily by robust demand. Our supply chain gauge shows that pressures around delivery times, inventory sentiment and shipping costs have all increased year-to-date. It seems that consumers are experiencing a lack of inventory and expanded wait times for everything from cars to couches, to golf clubs, just to name a few.

Supply chain pressures have spiked across the board year-to-date

supply chain pressure gauge

Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 8/20/2021

Given this restricted supply, some market commentators have suggested that growth expectations must come down based on the views that it is hard to generate output without inventory to sell, or that prices will increase so much that future demand will decline. While we see modest downside risk to our global GDP outlook (mostly on the back of COVID-19 worries and potential policy missteps), we don’t expect supply shortages alone to require significant downward revisions.

1. It is important to level set on the math surrounding GDP. From where we stand today, it’s not a high hurdle for 2021 U.S. GDP growth to come in above 6% (our base case). Consider that 2020 real GDP was $18.38 trillion for the full year, while real GDP for the first half of 2021 was already $19.36 trillion. The implication is that even in the unlikely case that GDP growth is flat for the rest of 2021, it would still increase around 5% for the year. Add in the sizable catchup growth that remains to be had in the service sector, where real spending is still 3.3% below end 2019 levels, and it seems unlikely that GDP will significantly stagnate for the second half of the year. Of course, the dominant risk to this view—and to service sector spending specifically—is the Delta variant. But so far, the variant does not appear to be having major impacts on mobility. It is also encouraging that vaccine adoption appears to be picking up again in recent weeks.

2. Despite mounting year-to-date supply chain pressures, inflation has not restricted growth. Plus, these fears seem overblown. In fact, the only area where inflation has held back growth is in the auto sector, where it has significantly outpaced real spending over the past six months. Real spending everywhere else this year has vastly trumped inflation. While auto production bottlenecks remain an issue, they are likely more micro than macro in nature and appear to be easing at the margin, with a promising rebound in July industrial production data.

No sign of demand destruction (ex motor vehicles)

no sign of demand destruction

Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 8/20/2021

3. Inventories are moving from a headwind to tailwind on GDP. In GDP accounting, inventory changes boost GDP when rising, and subtract from GDP when falling. Inventory depletions so far this year have subtracted nearly two percentage points off GDP. Here’s a simple way to look at it: Headline GDP in the first half of 2021 averaged 6.4%, but GDP excluding inventories averaged 8.4%. The best proxy for real underlying demand, which excludes inventories, trade and government spending (Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers), grew nearly 11%!

Real GDP understates the strong domestic demand in the first half of 2021

real gdp understates the strong domestric demand

Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 8/20/2021

Inventories are falling because sales have been incredibly robust, resulting in record low inventories-to-sales ratios. Even excluding the auto sector, sales have far outpaced inventories over the past 12 months. Companies simply have not been able to produce goods fast enough to maintain normal levels of inventories to sales. To make matters worse, the shift to just-in-time (JIT) inventories over the past 25 years meant companies were already running very lean, leaving them vulnerable to the worst supply shock this economy has seen in recent history.

Inventories haven’t kept up with robust sales

Inventories haven’t kept up with robust sales

Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 8/20/2021

U.S. retail (ex motor vehicle) days inventory

U.S. retail (ex motor vehicle) days inventory

Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 8/20/2021

Rebuilding inventories to levels more consistent with current sales volumes would boost GDP by about one percentage point over the next 12 to 18 months, and it is possible this replenishing might be even more robust than we are expecting. For example, companies could decide to hold even more inventory than they did in the decade leading up to COVID-19 as a buffer for future shocks. However, this may end up being more of a 2022 story, as building up inventories in the next few months may prove difficult, given that supply chain disruptions remain acute and seasonal demand for goods is strong, thanks to back-to-school and holiday shopping. Still, that just takes GDP growth from 2021 and moves it to 2022, rather than destroying output.

What does this mean for companies?

Looking ahead, companies are likely to focus on supply chain resiliency and boosting inventories and sourcing diversity. They may also begin to onshore production back to the United States to maintain greater supply chain control. That should be a growth tailwind as firms look to boost inventories above pre-COVID-19 levels and increase capital expenditures (capex) to meet current robust demand. While corporate spending last cycle was lackluster, it appears that both the manufacturing and innovation technology fronts may enjoy strong growth in the current cycle. We have written extensively about our view on productivity increasing this cycle, which is further supported by a capex acceleration.

Semiconductors are a great example of this low inventory and capex link. The pandemic highlighted chip supply chain structural vulnerabilities, and there has been a shift toward self-reliance in production in the name of national security. As a result, the United States is planning to invest billions of dollars to subsidize chipmakers moving production from Asia back to the United States.

Investment implications: Industrials

Previously, we have discussed our view that industrials should benefit from a robust economic recovery that remains firmly intact and supported by pent-up savings/demand, capacity to borrow, and a high likelihood of additional fiscal spending focused on infrastructure in the United States and abroad. The need to rebuild inventories only furthers this case, given that restocking tends to favor the industrial side of the equity market as demand picks up across the supply chain. In fact, our research shows that after periods of declining real private inventories (from the GDP accounts), industrials have tended to outperform the S&P 500.

Industrials tend to outperform after inventories bottom

Industrials tend to outperform after inventories bottom

Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 8/20/2021

We can help

Please speak with your J.P. Morgan team about how our economic views and the impending rebuild of U.S. corporate inventories might inform your financial goals.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

All market and economic data as of August 2021 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index. 
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions. 
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies. 
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service. 
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

Key RISKS

This material is for informational purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by J.P. Morgan’s wealth management businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). Products and services described, as well as associated fees, charges and interest rates, are subject to change in accordance with the applicable account agreements and may differ among geographic locations. Not all products and services are offered at all locations. If you are a person with a disability and need additional support accessing this material, please contact your J.P. Morgan team or email us at accessibility.support@jpmorgan.com for assistance. Please read all Important Information

GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS

Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g., equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

NON-RELIANCE

Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT YOUR INVESTMENTS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

Conflicts of interest will arise whenever JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates (together, “J.P. Morgan”) have an actual or perceived economic or other incentive in its management of our clients’ portfolios to act in a way that benefits J.P. Morgan. Conflicts will result, for example (to the extent the following activities are permitted in your account): (1) when J.P. Morgan invests in an investment product, such as a mutual fund, structured product, separately managed account or hedge fund issued or managed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or an affiliate, such as J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.; (2) when a J.P. Morgan entity obtains services, including trade execution and trade clearing, from an affiliate; (3) when J.P. Morgan receives payment as a result of purchasing an investment product for a client’s account; or (4) when J.P. Morgan receives payment for providing services (including shareholder servicing, recordkeeping or custody) with respect to investment products purchased for a client’s portfolio. Other conflicts will result because of relationships that J.P. Morgan has with other clients or when J.P. Morgan acts for its own account.

Investment strategies are selected from both J.P. Morgan and third-party asset managers and are subject to a review process by our manager research teams. From this pool of strategies, our portfolio construction teams select those strategies we believe fit our asset allocation goals and forward-looking views in order to meet the portfolio’s investment objective.

As a general matter, we prefer J.P. Morgan managed strategies. We expect the proportion of J.P. Morgan managed strategies will be high (in fact, up to 100 percent) in strategies such as, for example, cash and high-quality fixed income, subject to applicable law and any account-specific considerations.

While our internally managed strategies generally align well with our forward-looking views, and we are familiar with the investment processes as well as the risk and compliance philosophy of the firm, it is important to note that J.P. Morgan receives more overall fees when internally managed strategies are included. We offer the option of choosing to exclude J.P. Morgan managed strategies (other than cash and liquidity products) in certain portfolios.

The Six Circles Funds are U.S.-registered mutual funds managed by J.P. Morgan and sub-advised by third parties. Although considered internally managed strategies, JPMC does not retain a fee for fund management or other fund services.

LEGAL ENTITY, BRAND & REGULATORY INFORMATION

In the United States, bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively “JPMCB”) offer investment products, which may include bank-managed investment accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Annuities are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated companies under the common control of JPM. Products not available in all states.

In Luxembourg, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. (JPMBL), with registered office at European Bank and Business Centre, 6 route de Treves, L-2633, Senningerberg, Luxembourg. R.C.S Luxembourg B10.958. Authorized and regulated by Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and jointly supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the CSSF. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. is authorized as a credit institution in accordance with the Law of 5th April 1993. In the United Kingdom, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., London Branch, registered office at 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP. Authorized and regulated by Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and jointly supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the CSSF. Deemed authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details of the Temporary Permissions Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the United Kingdom for a limited period while seeking full authorization, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website. In Spain, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Sucursal en España, with registered office at Paseo de la Castellana, 31, 28046 Madrid, Spain. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Sucursal en España is registered under number 1516 within the administrative registry of the Bank of Spain and supervised by the Spanish Securities Market Commission (CNMV). In Germany, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Frankfurt Branch, registered office at Taunustor 1 (TaunusTurm), 60310 Frankfurt, Germany, jointly supervised by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and the European Central Bank (ECB), and in certain areas also supervised by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin). In Italy, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Milan Branch, registered office at Via Cordusio 3, 20123 Milano, Italy, and regulated by Bank of Italy and the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB). In the Netherlands, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Amsterdam Branch, with registered office at World Trade Centre, Tower B, Strawinskylaan 1135, 1077 XX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Amsterdam Branch is authorized and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and jointly supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the CSSF in Luxembourg; J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Amsterdam Branch is also authorized and supervised by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and the Autoriteit Financiële Markten (AFM) in the Netherlands. Registered with the Kamer van Koophandel as a branch of J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. under registration number 71651845. In Denmark, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg, Copenhagen Br, filial af J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. with registered office at Kalvebod Brygge 39-41, 1560 København V, Denmark. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg, Copenhagen Br, filial af J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. is authorized and regulated by Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and jointly supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the CSSF. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg, Copenhagen Br, filial af J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. is also subject to the supervision of Finanstilsynet (Danish FSA) and registered with Finanstilsynet as a branch of J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. under code 29009. In Sweden, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Stockholm Bankfilial, with registered office at Hamngatan 15, Stockholm, 11147, Sweden. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Stockholm Bankfilial is authorized and regulated by Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and jointly supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the CSSF. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Stockholm Bankfilial is also subject to the supervision of Finansinspektionen (Swedish FSA). Registered with Finansinspektionen as a branch of J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. In France, this material is distributed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“JPMCB”), Paris branch, which is regulated by the French banking authorities Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution and Autorité des Marchés Financiers. In Switzerland, material is distributed by J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA, with registered address at rue de la Confédération, 8, 1204, Geneva, Switzerland, which is authorized and supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), with registered address at Laupenstrasse 27, 3003, Bern, Switzerland, as a bank and a securities dealer in Switzerland. Please consult the following link to obtain information regarding J.P. Morgan’s EMEA data protection policy: https://www.jpmorgan.com/privacy.

This communication is an advertisement for the purposes of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MIFID II) and the Swiss Financial Services Act (FINSA), and investors should not subscribe for or purchase any financial instruments referred to in this advertisement except on the basis of information contained in any applicable legal documentation, which is or shall be made available in the relevant jurisdictions.

In Hong Kong, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Hong Kong branch. JPMCB, Hong Kong branch is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, we will cease to use your personal data for our marketing purposes without charge if you so request. In Singapore, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Singapore branch. JPMCB, Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Dealing and advisory services and discretionary investment management services are provided to you by JPMCB, Hong Kong/Singapore branch (as notified to you). Banking and custody services are provided to you by JPMCB Singapore Branch. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong, Singapore or any other jurisdictions. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to this document. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. For materials which constitute product advertisement under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisers Act, this advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a national banking association chartered under the laws of the United States, and as a body corporate, its shareholder’s liability is limited.

With respect to countries in Latin America, the distribution of this material may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. We may offer and/or sell to you securities or other financial instruments which may not be registered under, and are not the subject of a public offering under, the securities or other financial regulatory laws of your home country. Such securities or instruments are offered and/or sold to you on a private basis only. Any communication by us to you regarding such securities or instruments, including without limitation the delivery of a prospectus, term sheet or other offering document, is not intended by us as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or instruments in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or a solicitation is unlawful. Furthermore, such securities or instruments may be subject to certain regulatory and/or contractual restrictions on subsequent transfer by you, and you are solely responsible for ascertaining and complying with such restrictions. To the extent this content makes reference to a fund, the Fund may not be publicly offered in any Latin American country, without previous registration of such fund’s securities in compliance with the laws of the corresponding jurisdiction. Public offering of any security, including the shares of the Fund, without previous registration at Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission—CVM is completely prohibited. Some products or services contained in the materials might not be currently provided by the Brazilian and Mexican platforms.

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCBNA) (ABN 43 074 112 011/AFS Licence No: 238367) is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Material provided by JPMCBNA in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Please inform us if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.

JPMS is a registered foreign company (overseas) (ARBN 109293610) incorporated in Delaware, U.S.A. Under Australian financial services licensing requirements, carrying on a financial services business in Australia requires a financial service provider, such as J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL), unless an exemption applies. JPMS is exempt from the requirement to hold an AFSL under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Act) in respect of financial services it provides to you, and is regulated by the SEC, FINRA and CFTC under U.S. laws, which differ from Australian laws. Material provided by JPMS in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. The information provided in this material is not intended to be, and must not be, distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons in Australia. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Act. Please inform us immediately if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.

This material has not been prepared specifically for Australian investors. It:

  • May contain references to dollar amounts which are not Australian dollars; 
  • May contain financial information which is not prepared in accordance with Australian law or practices; 
  • May not address risks associated with investment in foreign currency denominated investments; and 
  • Does not address Australian tax issues. References to “J.P. Morgan” are to JPM, its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. “J.P. Morgan Private Bank” is the brand name for the private banking business conducted by JPM. T

his material is intended for your personal use and should not be circulated to or used by any other person, or duplicated for non-personal use, without our permission. If you have any questions or no longer wish to receive these communications, please contact your J.P. Morgan team.