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Key takeaways

  • Japan witnessed healthy GDP growth in the first half of the financial year, fuelled by tailwinds including pent up demand and government stimulus packages.
  • The recovery, however, slowed towards the second half of the financial year thanks to multiple unexpected headwinds, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and weakness in the Japanese Yen.
  • For Japanese corporates, navigating challenges and seizing potential opportunities to achieve business goals will require a strategic and disciplined approach in optimizing working capital management.

Summary of findings

Summary of findings

The macroeconomic environment in FY2022 for Japanese companies can be best described as a tale of two cities.

  • On the one hand, Japan witnessed healthy GDP growth in the first half of the financial year, fuelled with optimism as Japanese companies benefited from a number of tailwinds including materialization of pent-up demand, strong government stimulus packages and ultra-easy monetary policy, both aiming at boosting the country's economy and supporting the minimum wage hike to spur domestic consumption. Additionally, the fall in the value of the Japanese Yen helped exporters, as Japanese-made goods became more competitive.
  • The recovery, however, slowed towards the second half of the financial year attributed to multiple unexpected headwinds, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, pushing the cost of fuel and basic commodities for manufacturers in Japan which consequentially weighed on the manufacturer's profit and discouraged them from raising wages and capital investment; critically, weakness in the Japanese Yen also compounded the core inflation rate which hit household spending and consumer confidence in the domestic market - adding to the pain for a fragile economy; COVID restrictions in China, the largest trading partner for Japan, for the majority of the period FY 2022-2023, also impacted the demand for Japanese products and disrupted supply chain; global economic slowdown in the US and Europe and weak signs in China economy exacerbated these challenges further.
  • Japanese economic situation is likely to remain unstable. Navigating the challenges and seizing potential opportunities to achieve business goals will require a strategic and disciplined approach in optimizing working capital management. Through insights derived from benchmarking and analysis of the drivers of working capital metrics, this Report aims to help treasury and finance professionals for Japanese companies track working capital trends and guide their initiatives for recovery and growth.
  • Working capital optimization has also become more critical for Japanese companies following the Corporate Governance reform initiatives by the Tokyo Stock Exchange where management of the companies listed on Prime and Standard sections are urged to place greater emphasis on stock prices and capital efficiency by careful consideration of the cost of capital and return of equity, instead of just sales and profit levels on the income statement, to achieve sustainable growth and increase corporate value in the mid-to-longer term.

Regional insights

ROCE Gap widened between S&P 1500 and Nikkei 225 companies

ROCE Gap widened between S&P 1500 and Nikkei 225 companies

The gap between S&P 1500 and Nikkei 225 companies widened in 2023 for return on capital employed (ROCE) by 0.6%. Although the ROCE of Nikkei 225 companies had marginally improved to pre-pandemic levels, the gap to S&P 1500 companies worsened by 0.6%.

  • On the balance sheet, Nikkei 225 companies’ Cash Conversion Cycle was slower by 27.9 days (0.1 day longer year on year); Nikkei 225 companies had 7.7% higher cash level (0.5% higher year on year) as a percentage of sales at 22.5%
  • On the income statement, Nikkei 225 had higher Selling, General & Administration (SG&A) Cost although the gap in Earnings before Interest and Tax (EBIT) has improved by 0.4% from (4.4%) to (4.0%)

Cash levels decrease globally

Cash levels decrease globally

As companies look to recover from the pandemic, cash levels have decreased due to a shift in focus from cash preservation to cash deployment into growth activities. However, for Nikkei 225 companies, the cash index fell by 5.2 points, relatively modest as compared to an 8.5 point drop for their S&P 1500 counterparts.

This drop in cash levels comes as Japanese corporates saw record high capital expenditure, which stemmed from preparation for expected growth in demand post-pandemic. Nikkei 225 firms saw record levels of buybacks and dividend payouts for the year ending March 2023, resulting in lower cash levels. Additionally, high inflation and depreciation of the yen meant that companies needed to spend more on purchases of supplies.

Strategies for the future

  • Strategic investments
    • With macroeconomic uncertainty on the horizon and higher global interest rates, the cost of holding working capital is going to be high. Businesses in Japan can look for selective investment and partnership opportunities to help set their companies up for future success and mitigate risks. There can also be significant synergy opportunities that can be realized through post-merger integration from the acquisitions done in 2020-2021 period when global interest rates were low.
  • Supply chain diversification
    • Supply chain disruptions in the past two years have forced corporates to re-evaluate their supply chains and invest towards mitigating any major risks. With economic and geopolitical conditions likely to remain uncertain in the near future, corporates in Japan will also need to explore various supply chain diversification strategies including “China plus one” strategy, nearshoring or friend shoring to diversify and mitigate supply chain risk.
  • Treasury and technology
    • Japanese corporates are seeing an increased emphasis on modernization, innovation and data intelligence across verticals. Those who adapt quickly will benefit from data insights that may help them make informed business decisions to prepare for the future.

References

1. Values are as of Dec year end for both Nikkei 225 and S&P 1500 till 2020, post which Nikkei 225 financials are changed to March year end while for S&P 1500 it continues to be December year end, a quarter before the Nikkei 225 March year end. The year label shown on the chart corresponds to Nikkei 225 March end financial year; ROCE is calculated as EBIT * (1- tax) / Average total capital; total capital is sum of Equity and Debt

2. Values are as of Dec year end for both Nikkei 225 and S&P 1500 till 2020, post which Nikkei 225 financials are changed to March year end while for S&P 1500 it continues to be December year end, a quarter before the Nikkei 225 March year end. The year label shown on the chart corresponds to Nikkei 225 March end financial year

Disclaimer

Please kindly note that this is a summarized version of the full report. For detailed findings, please reach out to the J.P. Morgan Payments Advisory team or the authors of the report.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan, its affiliates, or its employees. The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable. Neither the author nor J.P. Morgan makes any representations or warranties as to the information’s accuracy or completeness. The information contained herein has been provided solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, advice or recommendation, to make any investment decisions or purchase any financial instruments, and may not be construed as such.

Investments or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Neither J.P. Morgan nor any of its directors, officers, employees or agents shall incur in any responsibility or liability whatsoever to the Company or any other party with respect to the contents of any matters referred herein, or discussed as a result of, this material. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Please consult your own tax, legal, accounting or investment advisor concerning such matters.

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All values in this report are as of Dec year end for both Nikkei 225 and S&P 1500 till 2020, after which Nikkei 225 financials are changed to March year end while for S&P 1500 it continues to be December year end, a quarter before the Nikkei 225 March year end.