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Outlook

5 ideas to drive your portfolio through recession obsession

June 09, 2023

A recession may be coming, but it doesn’t mean your portfolio has to suffer. We take a look at the latest events for cues on how to position.

Red car moving on a winding coastal road approaching a beautiful beach with sea waves and blue water. Green forest and rocks for a perfect summer destination. Aerial view.

By Madison Faller

Global Investment Strategist

By Elyse Ausenbaugh

Global Investment Strategist

By Madison Faller , Elyse Ausenbaugh

Our Top Market Takeaways for June 9, 2023

Market spotlight: 5 ideas to drive your portfolio through recession obsession

Our 2023 Mid-Year Outlook: The Recession Obsession is hot off the press.

Obsession around a potential recession has been real, and there’s no doubt that headlines will continue to swirl into year-end – whether about central bank dynamics, inflation, fallout in labor markets or [insert worry here]. But, despite all the angst, we see promise for investors. Our Outlook centers on five key ideas to navigate what feels like one of the most well-telegraphed recessions ever.

In today’s note, we pull out some highlights.

Key Idea 1: Rebuild your equity portfolio now for the next bull market.

It might not be all smooth sailing (we expect volatility ahead), but we think the worst is over for stocks. The S&P 500 is now 20% higher from its October lows, almost eight months ago! When stocks have rebounded that much from their nadir in the past, it’s boded well for future returns. In the last 11 bear markets, after stocks rallied back 20%, the S&P was up on average another +22% over the next year.

The table describes the U.S. bear markets (S&P 500 Index) in history.

For the first bear market:

Type: Event-driven
Description: Suez Canal Crisis
Start (Prior High): Aug ’56
End (Trough): Oct ’57
Drawdown: -22%
Date of +20% rally from trough: July 25, ’58
12-month return after +20% rally: 27%
Recession?: Yes

For the second bear market

Type: Event-driven
Description: Flash Crash of 1962
Start (Prior High): Dec’61
End (Trough): Jun’62
Drawdown: -28%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Dec 5, ’62
12-month return after +20% rally: 18%
Recession?: No

For the third bear market

Type: Event-driven
Description: 1966 Financial Crisis
Start (Prior High): Feb’66
End (Trough): Oct’66
Drawdown: -22%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Feb 14,’67
12-month return after +20% rally: 2%
Recession?: No

For the fourth bear market

Type: Cyclical
Description: Tech Crash of 1970
Start (Prior High): Nov’68
End (Trough): May’70
Drawdown: -36%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Sep 24’70
12-month return after +20% rally: 17%
Recession?- Yes

For the fifth bear market

Type: Structural
Description: Stagflation – OPEC Oil Embargo
Start (Prior High): Jan '73
End (Trough): Oct '74
Drawdown: -48%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Nov 5, '74
12-month return after +20% rally: 19%
Recession?: Yes

For the sixth bear market

Type: Cyclical
Description: Volcker Tightening
Start (Prior High): Nov '80
End (Trough): Aug ‘82
Drawdown: -27%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Sep 14, '82
12-month return after +20% rally: 34%
Recession?: Yes

For the seventh bear market

Type: Event-driven
Description: 1987 Crash
Start (Prior High): Aug '87
End (Trough): Dec '87
Drawdown: -34%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Mar 8, '88
12-month return after +20% rally: 9%
Recession?: No

For the eighth bear market

Type: Cyclical
Description: Early 1990s Recession
Start (Prior High): Jul '90
End (Trough): Oct '90
Drawdown: -20%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Feb 6,'91
12-month return after +20% rally: 16%
Recession?: Yes

For the ninth bear market

Type: Structural
Description: Tech Bubble
Start (Prior High): Mar '00
End (Trough): Oct '02
Drawdown: -49%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Nov 21, '02
12-month return after +20% rally: 11%
Recession?: Yes

For the tenth bear market

Type: Structural
Description: Global Financial Crisis
Start (Prior High): Oct '07
End (Trough): Mar '09
Drawdown: -57%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Jan 19, '09
12-month return after +20% rally: 20%
Recession?: Yes

For the eleventh bear market

Type: Event-driven
Description: COVID-19
Start (Prior High): Feb '20
End (Trough): Mar '20
Drawdown: -34%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Apr 8, '20
12-month return after +20% rally: 49%
Recession?: Yes

For the twelfth bear market

Type: Cyclical
Description: Central Bank Tightening
Start (Prior High): Jan '22
End (Trough): Oct '22
Drawdown: -24%
Date of +20% rally from trough: Jun 8, '23
12-month return after +20% rally: ?
Recession?: ?

At the bottom of the table, it provides the average number for 12-month return after +20% rally across the first 11 bear markets, which is 22%.

But while stocks are up and the slide in earnings has been far better-than-feared, many investors have been reticent to jump back in. Our clients have been net buyers of equities in just seven of the 30 weeks since the market bottomed in October. That’s left the majority with a lower allocation to equities today than they did a year ago.

Yet, stocks are the engines of capital appreciation in portfolios, and our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions estimate equities will average returns of 7.5 – 10% per year over the next 10–15 years (depending on the region), handily outpacing expected annual U.S. inflation of 2.6%. When investors are fearful and markets dip, that’s often the time to pounce and use volatility to rebuild positions.

Key Idea 2: You probably stay too close to home with your investments.

Half of our U.S. clients are materially underweight Europe, and two-thirds have little to no exposure to China. That may have been a good bet in years’ past, but such positioning could leave investors wrong-footed as the tide turns.

Europe defied expectations for a recession last winter, and stocks rallied in thanks. Still, Europe trades at a significant discount to the U.S. Even if you strip out U.S. mega cap tech, European stocks are at a 16% discount to the U.S. – wider than the 10-year average of -8%. On top of valuation tailwinds, add continued economic and earnings resilience and a weaker dollar, and we still think the Europe rally has legs – even if that pace of outperformance tempers.

On the other hand, geopolitics and a mixed reopening recovery have made China a tough call. But, that also means valuations are even more reasonable today. Economic policy is supportive (net new credit growth is once more on the rise), and a steady release of pent-up consumer savings should help support a durable recovery (despite it likely moderating from here). We think all of that could propel markets in the second half of the year.

Key Idea 3: Manage your concentrated positions.

The market swings of the last few years serve as a warning against putting all your eggs in one basket. While the broader Russell 3000 is just -12% off its 2021 highs as of yesterday’s close, one out of every four stocks in the index is down more than 75%. So while concentrated stock positions can create substantial wealth, they also come with a high probability of dramatic losses that can potentially derail the financial future you had envisioned for you and your family – especially during times of volatility.

Hindsight is 20/20. History suggests the risks of investing in a “losing” company are high, with most causes of catastrophic losses only obvious after the fact or outside of management’s control: government policy changes, regulation, commodity price risks, foreign competition, technological innovation, fraud or changes in consumer behavior. We’ve seen this play out again and again over history. The good news is that there are a number of ways you can manage the risk.

Key Idea 4: You may hold too much cash and not enough bonds.

Disinflationary forces are brewing. Used car prices, one of the OG villains in the inflation epic, can now be used as an example of forces pulling inflation lower. The Manheim Used Vehicle Index fell -2.7% last month, following a -3.1% decline in April. On a year-over-year basis, prices are down -7.6%.

Companies are also noting the shift, like Campbell’s Soup this week remarking that consumers aren’t buying as much soup at these higher prices. Meanwhile, most commodity prices have deflated well off their cycle highs, whether we’re talking about coffee (-20%), European natural gas (-90%), steel (-52%) or cotton (-47%).

Obviously, central banks don’t think that our inflation problem is over yet, but seeing prices cool across both discretionary and non-discretionary items is encouraging. We don’t think it will take many more hikes for the Fed to finish its part (perhaps just one more this summer), which means risk-free yields are likely at or near their peak for this cycle.

Given that approximately 25% of our clients’ investable assets are being held in cash or cash-like instruments right now, reinvestment risk should be top of mind. Now is the time to extend duration and lock in elevated yields for longer.

Key Idea 5: Know the risks – and opportunities – in regional U.S. banks and real estate.

While the most acute banking stress seems to have subsided, the flow of credit is slowly drying up – 46% of U.S. banks are now tightening lending standards, reticent to take more risk on their books.

But, companies still need access to credit, prompting many to turn to private lenders for their borrowing needs. That means private credit markets are able to fill a void, and earn a good premium: With rates higher and credit spreads wider, new loans in the private credit market are originating at much wider spreads – around 300 basis points wider than public market pricing.

What’s more, as default rates start to rise, opportunistic and distressed credit managers can sift through the damage and pick up quality assets at a discount.

That’s all to say, there may yet be ripple effects, but risks around banks and real estate can also bring opportunities – if you know where to look.

BONUS: Follow the dollars.

Presidential campaign announcements are popping up left and right, and eventually they’ll bring policy proposals with ambitious goals for the future. Instead of taking the debate bait about which ones could work, steer towards what’s already been passed: The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act (CHIPS) present an estimated combined $2.4 trillion in public and private spending over the next 10 years.

Together, the three bills compose the largest commitment to industrial policy in the United States since the Cold War – with cascading macroeconomic effects. That also supports our view that in the new emerging market cycle, “real economy” stocks should outperform the growth stocks that dominated the 2010s.

For more, dig into our 2023 Mid-Year Outlook: The Recession Obsession. All market data from FactSet and Bloomberg Finance L.P., 6/8/23

Disclosures

All market and economic data as of June 9, 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.

Small capitalization companies typically carry more risk than well-established "blue-chip" companies since smaller companies can carry a higher degree of market volatility than most large cap and/or blue-chip companies.

International investments may not be suitable for all investors. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the United States and other nations. Investments in international markets can be more volatile.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.

The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.

The MSCI World Index is a broad global developed markets equity benchmark designed to support: Asset allocation: Consistent, broad representation of the performance of developed equity markets worldwide, without home bias.

The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index or "the Agg" is a broad-based fixed-income index used by bond traders and the managers of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a benchmark to measure their relative performance.

The NYSE FANG+ Index is an equal-dollar weighted index designed to represent a segment of the technology and consumer discretionary sectors consisting of highly-traded growth stocks of technology and tech-enabled companies such as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet's Google.

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All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.

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The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

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Market spotlight: 5 ideas to drive your portfolio through recession obsession

Key Idea 1: Rebuild your equity portfolio now for the next bull market.

Key Idea 2: You probably stay too close to home with your investments.

Key Idea 3: Manage your concentrated positions.

Key Idea 4: You may hold too much cash and not enough bonds.

Key Idea 5: Know the risks – and opportunities – in regional U.S. banks and real estate.

BONUS: Follow the dollars.

Disclosures

All market and economic data as of June 9, 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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