Business leaders across Germany are less optimistic about the economy than they were a year ago, according to our 2023 Business Leaders Outlook survey. Just over half (53%) have a positive outlook about the national economy today; last year, more than three-fifths (62%) were optimistic.
Optimism around the global economy has fallen as well—to 56% from 64% last year. Notably, 59% of business leaders in Germany said they expect a recession in 2023. Compared with other countries surveyed at the same time, German leaders are less worried about a recession than their counterparts in the United Kingdom (69%), the United States (65%) and India (61%), but more concerned than leaders in France (53%) and Australia (46%).
Rising costs in general—and energy prices in particular—continue to weigh on German businesses. More than three-fourths of the companies experiencing inflation said energy prices are their biggest challenge; next in line are the increased costs of raw materials (63%) and supply chain issues (55%).
Despite the inflationary challenges, most leaders are still confident in their own companies. More than eight in 10 (83%) expect their revenues to increase or remain the same in 2023.
Most German business leaders are optimistic about the global, national and local economies. But they’re even more optimistic about their own industries and companies.
Optimism has weakened over the past 12 months. A year ago, three-fifths of German business leaders were optimistic about the national economy. Today, just over half hold a positive outlook.
The vast majority of businesses (83%) expect their revenues to grow or hold steady in 2023. A similar amount (85%) expect their capital expenditures to increase or remain the same.
German business leaders face many challenges today. Among them: persistent inflation, high energy prices, snarled supply chains and a shortage of available workers.
Started in 2021, the J.P. Morgan Business Leaders Outlook: Germany survey is a snapshot capturing the concerns and expectations of senior business leaders whose companies have annual revenues between €20 million and €2 billion.
This year, 254 respondents completed the online survey between 21 November and 8 December, 2022. Results are within statistical parameters for validity; the error rate is plus or minus 6.2% at the 95% confidence interval.
Healthcare: 12%; higher education: 3%; home services: 6%; industrials: 9%; manufacturing: 20%; nonprofit: 1%; oil and gas: 4%; other professional/non-finance: 2%; real estate: 1%; restaurants/food services: 1%; technology: 14%; transportation/logistics: 7%; wholesale/retail: 15%; other: 5%
Note: Some numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Head of Germany, Senior Country Officer J.P. Morgan
Head of Investment Banking, Germany J.P. Morgan
Head of Commercial Banking, DACH Region J.P. Morgan
Head of Corporate Debt Capital Markets, DACH Region J.P. Morgan
Head of Commercial Banking Treasury Management, DACH Region J.P. Morgan
Head of Private Bank, Germany J.P. Morgan
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