Business leaders across France are slightly less optimistic about the economy than they were a year ago, according to our 2023 Business Leaders Outlook survey. Nearly three in five (58%) have a positive outlook about the global economy; last year, 62% were optimistic.
Optimism around the national economy has fallen as well—to 56% from 60% last year. Notably, 53% of business leaders in France said they expect a recession in 2023. Compared with other countries surveyed at the same time, French leaders are less worried about a recession than their counterparts in the United Kingdom (69%), the United States (65%), India (61%) and Germany (59%), but more concerned than leaders in Australia (46%).
Inflation and increased energy costs continue to weigh on French businesses. And supply chain pressures haven’t eased either: 63% said it has gotten worse over the past 12 months to source materials and ship goods.
Despite these challenges, many leaders are still confident in their own companies. Nearly nine in 10 (89%) expect their revenues to increase or remain the same in 2023.
Slightly more than half of French business leaders are optimistic about the global, national and regional economies. But their optimism is much stronger for their own industries and companies.
The drop in optimism has been subtle. A year ago, three-fifths (60%) of business leaders were optimistic about the national economy. Today, 56% have a positive outlook.
The vast majority of businesses (89%) expect their revenues to grow or hold steady in 2023. A similar amount (88%) expect their capital expenditures to increase or remain the same.
Business leaders generally don’t expect many changes due to recent elections.
French business leaders face a range of challenges today. Among them: persistent inflation, high energy prices, snarled supply chains and a shortage of available workers.
Started in 2022, the J.P. Morgan Business Leaders Outlook: France survey is a snapshot capturing the concerns and expectations of senior business leaders whose companies have annual revenues between €20 million and €2 billion.
This year, 254 respondents completed the online survey between 21 November and 8 December, 2022. Results are within statistical parameters for validity; the error rate is plus or minus 6.2% at the 95% confidence interval.
Government: 4%; healthcare: 6%; home services: 4%; industrials: 7%; manufacturing: 24%; media/entertainment/advertising: 2%; nonprofit: 1%; oil and gas: 2%; other professional/non-finance: 3%; real estate: 2%; restaurants/food services: 3%; technology: 17%; transportation/logistics: 9%; wholesale/retail: 12%; other: 4%
Note: Some numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Head of France, Senior Country Officer J.P. Morgan
Head of Commercial Banking, France and Benelux J.P. Morgan
Head of Commercial Banking, Treasury Management, France J.P. Morgan
Vice Chairman, Head of Debt Financing, EMEA, Commercial Banking J.P. Morgan
Head of Investment Banking, France J.P. Morgan
Head of Private Banking, France J.P. Morgan
Global Market Strategist, Benelux, France and Geneva, Asset Management J.P. Morgan
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