Global EconomyWatch video
“Global core inflation is expected to rise approximately 3% this year marking the largest increase in over a quarter century.” Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
Global GDP rose at a strong 4.6% annualized rate pace in 1H21 despite an ongoing large COVID-19 drag that weighed heavily on growth outside the U.S.
We expect the COVID-19 drag to fade in 2H21, allowing for a strong 6.5% annualized rate rise in global GDP led by bounces in Europe and many Emerging Markets excluding China.
Transitory inflation pressures related to this growth bounce are expected to persist, with notable upward pressure in service prices in 2H21.