Global inflation forecast:
Will prices come down in 2024?

Inflation is easing, but will central banks achieve their targets in 2024? J.P. Morgan’s economists share their projections.
  • J.P. Morgan Research forecasts global core inflation will remain sticky at around 3% in 2024.
  • In the U.S., inflation has cooled significantly but still remains above target. Against a challenging growth backdrop, the road to lower inflation also looks bumpy in the U.K. and the Euro zone.
  • In China, deflationary pressures will likely ease in 2024, with headline CPI inflation trending up modestly to 0.9% year-over-year and core CPI inflation reaching 1.2%.
  • In emerging markets (ex-China and Türkiye), J.P. Morgan Research expects both core and headline inflation to decline by 100 basis points (bp) over the course of 2024.
February 7, 2024

Inflation has been slowing across the globe, raising hopes of a soft landing in 2024. However, while core goods prices are stabilizing in many regions, core services prices remain elevated and labor markets are still tight.

How will these dynamics play out in the coming months, and what’s the global inflation forecast for 2024? Explore our interactive global inflation map below.

Global CPI forecast

core CPI, %oya