Assessing the UK’s Turn of Events in 2020
In the wake of Boris Johnson’s historic victory in the UK’s general election, J.P. Morgan Research examines the impact of the vote on the Brexit process, UK economy and trade talks.
Given the size of Boris Johnson’s parliamentary majority, Brexit will now happen and the government should have no trouble securing enough votes to pass Johnson's Brexit bill through parliament. In this report, J.P. Morgan Research discusses the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, scenarios to consider and predictions for 2020.
- Johnson appears committed to a Brexit that places high value on the UK securing full autonomy—without negative impacts on its economy—as it leaves the EU
- The reduction in near-term political uncertainty will likely help lift economic growth in the UK in the first quarter of 2020
- The UK’s interaction with Europe will now be the main source of uncertainty and volatility