Stagflation is not here to ruin our economy once again. Here’s why.
Current fears appear overblown. Yes, inflation is rising. But we believe it will remain at a manageable rate.
The last time the United States faced a major period of stagflation was in the 1970s—and it wasn’t pretty. The economy was a mess, there were widespread food and energy shortages, and interest rates were soaring due to unhinged inflation expectations. Investors who sold risk assets, such as stocks and corporate bonds, to buy gold and other inflation investment hedges were rewarded.
Fast forward to 2021, and fears abound that the U.S. economy may be repeating a similar stagflation cycle—a difficult one-two punch of rising inflation and economic stagnation. After all, product shortages have emerged across numerous sectors, driving prices sharply higher.
For example, after trending sideways for about 25 years, the average automobile price has spiked up by more than 20% since the pandemic began in early 2020. Meanwhile, risk assets have continued their impressive run, with the U.S. stock market (adjusted for inflation) up roughly 30% over the same period.
Is the auto sector the proverbial “canary in the coal mine” when it comes to a 1970s redux? Should investors consider selling risk assets to buy inflation hedges such as gold with the expectation that stagflation appears to be just around the corner?
No! In reality, the U.S. economy in 2021 bears little resemblance to the 1970s upon a careful review of the data. Here are three reasons why.
1. It’s about demand, not supply
Every Econ 101 student learns that prices can go up in the short run as a result of either negative supply shocks or positive demand shocks. In the 1970s, it was a negative supply shock: OPEC cornered the oil market and instituted an embargo, sending real oil prices up 150% at the end of 1973. A second oil shock then hit in 1979 as a result of the Iran hostage crisis, sending real oil prices up another roughly 130%. In addition, this all happened at a time when the U.S. economy’s “oil intensity”—the number of oil barrels consumed per unit of real GDP—was extremely elevated (it has since fallen by more than 70%).
The oil price shocks of the 1970s occurred during a period of elevated oil intensity
In our view, today’s inflation spikes are not a result of a negative supply shock, but rather from stronger-than-expected demand, which rapidly depleted inventories after catching many producers flatfooted. How can we say with confidence that demand, rather than supply, is in the driver’s seat? Look at profits and productivity.
A negative supply shock implies a contraction in corporate profitability and a slowdown in economy-wide productivity growth, which is how the data played out in the 1970s. Today, we are seeing the opposite: Corporate profitability has soared, coinciding with an acceleration in aggregate productivity.
Unlike in the 1970s, profitability and productivity have been on the rise
Labor productivity is calculated by dividing real final sales to private domestic purchasers by average weekly hours of all private production and non-supervisory employees. Corporate margins defined as before-tax corporate profit as a % of potential GDP.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Congressional Budget Office as of Q2 2021
This rise in corporate profitability is also not unique to the United States; it’s a global development, broadly evident in the eurozone, Japan and across emerging markets (excluding China). 1
2. Long-term inflation expectations remain largely in check
One issue to keep in mind is that, in principle, inflation could still become a problem if demand shocks are so extreme that they alter longer-term inflation expectations. But is there any evidence of this? Not really. Longer-term inflation expectations have ticked up, but not by much. According to one measure from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, 10-year-ahead median annual expected CPI inflation has increased by only about 25 basis points since 2019. 2
Despite recent price increases, long-term inflation expectations remain relatively muted
3. Real spending continues to outpace price growth in most sectors
If the dynamics of stagflation aren’t playing out in the macro data, then why does it remain a prevailing concern for so many investors? According to Bloomberg, the number of news articles mentioning stagflation has soared, currently up more than 300% since 2019.
We think a main reason for this may be that too many investors are likely incorrectly reasoning from one sector to the broader macro-economy. More specifically, it appears there has been a micro bout of stagflation underway in the auto sector due to the global shortage of semiconductors.
However, in the U.S. consumer basket of goods and services, the auto sector is the only area where price growth has exceeded real spending year-to-date. Further, auto spending does not make up a large portion of the U.S. consumption basket, at only about 3.5% prior to the pandemic.
In other words, the global semiconductor shortage is an issue, but one we see more of as a micro issue that is not likely to push the economy as a whole into a 1970s-style stagflation trap. Plus, the light at the end of the tunnel for the semiconductor shortage appears to be finally in sight. Our Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Michael Cembalest, has noted that the semiconductor shortage is likely to ease by the middle of next year due to the flood of money entering the sector to expand production capacity (see Dude, Where’s My Stuff?). 3
The bottom line
The bottom line for investors is that stagflation fears are likely overblown right now, and we are not recommending a broad de-risking of multi-asset investment portfolios for fear of a 1970s repeat. In addition, inflation hedges such as gold and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) do not look particularly attractive to us, especially from a valuation perspective. 4
We have said before that we think the economic cycle of the 2020s will look and feel more like the 1990s productivity boom than the 1970s . If this core view turns out to be correct, the setup for inflation hedge assets such as gold won’t be that favorable.
So look past the headlines and focus on the underlying data for a clearer inflationary and economic picture. Your J.P. Morgan team can offer you more insights into how the current environment and investment outlook are shaping risk and return potential in the context of your specific situation and financial objectives.
Tactically speaking. From a more strategic or structural perspective, these assets may have a role to play in multi-asset portfolios, depending on an investor’s long-term investment objectives.
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