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The e-Trading Edit is your annual insight into predictions for the year ahead. In January, 2023 traders across asset classes and regions share their views in our annual e-Trading survey, covering upcoming trends and the most hotly debated topics.
How will your predictions compare?
Traders predict that 'Recession risk' will have the biggest impact on markets in 2023. Closely followed by 'Inflation' and 'Geopolitical conflict'.
Question asked: Which potential developments will have the greatest impact on the markets in 2023? (Rank in order of importance)
This chart reflects that traders predict Recession risk (30%) will have the biggest impact on markets in 2023. Followed by Inflation (26%), Geopolitical conflict (19%), Market and economy dislocation (14%), Government policy change (9%), ESG, Climate risk factors (1%) and Global pandemic (0%). For 2022: Inflation (48%) will have the biggest impact, followed by Market and economy dislocation (13%), Global pandemic (13%), Recession risk (5%) and ESG/Climate risk factors (3%).
For traders that predicted ‘Inflation’ to have an impact on markets, we asked them ‘What is your outlook for the impact of inflation when pricing it in for 2023?’, with 44% of traders predicting inflation will decrease.
Question asked: What is your outlook for the impact of inflation when pricing it in for 2023, based on the region you are located in? (Select one option)
This image shows that 44% of traders predict inflation will decrease. Followed by ‘Inflation will level off’ (37%) and ‘inflation will increase’(19%).
58% of traders surveyed based in the United States expect U.S. inflation levels to level off and 41% of traders surveyed based in the United Kingdom predict inflation to decrease.
Question asked: What is predicted impact of inflation, depending on the survey participants' location by region?
This chart displays what percentage of traders predict inflation to increase, decrease or level off, by their location: U.K., U.S., Rest of Europe and APAC. For U.K.-based traders, the graph shows inflation will increase (27%), decrease (41%) and level off (32%). For U.S.-based traders, the graph shows inflation will increase (10%), decrease (32%) and level off (58%). For traders in the Rest of Europe, the graph shows inflation will increase (13%), decrease (56%) and level off (31%). For APAC-based traders, the graph shows inflation will increase (25%), decrease (35%) and level off (40%).