The e-Trading Edit:
Insights from
the inside


Carbon CompassSM

JPMorgan Chase is working to align key sectors of our financing portfolio with what we consider to be the primary goals of the Paris Agreement.

The e-Trading Edit is your annual insight into predictions for the year ahead. In January, 2023 traders across asset classes and regions share their views in our annual e-Trading survey, covering upcoming trends and the most hotly debated topics. How will your predictions compare?

7 years
now in its seventh year
7 years
institutional traders responded
7 years
global locations

Trader TV

Watch industry-leading experts discuss the results of this year's e-Trading Edit, including Scott Wacker, J.P. Morgan's Global Head of FICC e-Sales.

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DAN BARNES: Welcome to Trader TV, your insight into institutional trading. I'm Dan Barnes. J.P. Morgan's latest e-trading survey has found that traders have new priorities and concerns in 2023 across asset classes. With me to discuss these results and implications are Scott Wacker of JP Morgan and Gordon Noonan of Schroders. Guys, welcome to the show.

SCOTT WACKER: Thank you.


DAN BARNES: Which challenges and new developments will be driving markets in 2023?

SCOTT WACKER: We had a bit of a change this year. Last year, inflation was the number one priority. But this year, there's more concern around recessionary risks, followed by inflation, and then geopolitical issues.

DAN BARNES: And Gordon, how do you see technology changing trading over the short and medium term?

GORDON NOONAN: Well, I think traders are very much now getting into the mode where they can use data bit more and be a lot more comfortable with the data that they can consume. Traders now have access to more tools. They're getting more data from the banks, ranging from equities, which is very, very data rich, all the way down to high yield credit, which is still light on data. And they're happy to use that data to provide better investment decisions on the fly while we're trading in-flight.

SCOTT WACKER: This year, we saw artificial intelligence and machine learning as sort of the number one technology innovations that's going to affect trading over the next three years, followed by API, connectivity, and integration. And then, the third one, which I think was quite interesting, is a view that the emerging blockchain technology is going to change things as well. How the market is harnessing this data using machine learning is evident.

But the second one, I think, is probably most poignant in terms of where electronic trading is going. The fact that more people are recognizing that API connections is really the cornerstone of enhancing electronic trading across asset classes. Transaction cost analysis, you need to use a lot of data. And if you want to enhance your training models, also, get more efficient outcomes, using data with sort of machine learning, reinforcement has played a huge part.

GORDON NOONAN: As traders have become more comfortable with the data, they've been getting a lot more comfortable asking questions and then querying the data themselves. And then we can go back to the sell side and query that data further and make suggestions. And we can work together. Guys like JPM have really pushed that forward with their JPM Markets tool, giving us more real-time data, which is only better for us and only better for our clients.

DAN BARNES: Scott, coming back to you, how do you see market structural change potentially impacting how and where people will be trading this year?

SCOTT WACKER: Really, the three biggest market structural concerns for clients were, first, access to liquidity, second, regulatory changes, and finally, market fragmentation. That's one of the things I think electronic trading really helps address. So by connecting through APIs, creating an automated process, we're able to give access to markets that typically might not be as easy to access.

And so as that grows, I think it's just going to continue to improve. And when you look at the world through the pandemic and particularly in 2022 where we saw unprecedented levels of volatility, essentially, we didn't see any major markets break down.

DAN BARNES: That's right.

SCOTT WACKER: No real flash crashes. And actually, the electronic portals were very, very resilient through a pretty testing period of time.

GORDON NOONAN: As we get more data, we're able to look at the pricing we get from different banks. We're able to then rate the quality of that pricing. If we see a material market impact, we know that although the bank has given us that price, how they're accessing that liquidity, where they're getting that liquidity from, we can gauge a lot better than the way we used to. Spreads have widened materially post the Ukraine invasion. Now, they have come down, and they've come back, but not to where we were prior to the invasion.

Liquidity is a bit thinner, and the depth of book is thinner as well. And we've noticed that from conversations with a lot of our banks. So on the back of that, we've had to change how we've executed with the market. And we have to constantly reassess going forward as we see changes in liquidity, adapt accordingly.

DAN BARNES: Scott, looking at inflation, how impactful will that be this year?

SCOTT WACKER: In last year's survey, inflation was the number one concern. This year, it's risk of recession. If you really think about it, one sort of leads to the other. The natural response to inflation is to raise interest rates. The whole purpose of raising interest rates is to slow the economy down. And essentially, a recession is a slowing down of an economy.

GORDON NOONAN: What we're finding is divergence in interest rates across different economies and different currencies. So all of a sudden, the points, the forward points that were being charged, is a lot more important than when everyone had zero interest rates. Before, we would be hyper concentrated on the spot spread. Now, we really need to start looking at the forward spread as well. And we have to look at the all-in costs for spot and forward. That is just as important now.

DAN BARNES: So Scott, what sort of institutional interest do you see in digital assets this year?

SCOTT WACKER: Interestingly, 72% said that they don't have any interest in trading in the next year with 6% saying that they did. We did see a rise in expectations over the coming years. But in the short term, it looks like perhaps the interest from previous years seems to be waning a bit.

GORDON NOONAN: The talk has very much moved away from people asking where Bitcoin pricing is going to go and the crypto bro kind of idea. People understand the technology a lot better. And I think there's a lot more nuance and a lot more education out there now from the buy side and the sell side about where we can go with digital technologies with regard to DLTS. It's not just about Bitcoin anymore. We're really looking at a wider scope.

DAN BARNES: That's great. Thank you. What are your expectations for electronic trading in 2023?

GORDON NOONAN: As people become more comfortable with the data, they can use post-TCA data to make a virtuous feedback loop into pre-TCA data and make smarter decisions. What we're hoping to do is allow automation and auto rules to allow us to trade smaller tickets more electronic. And we can feed that back through again in through our data and allow traders to concentrate on value add for PMs or concentrate on larger tickets.

SCOTT WACKER: If you look at the survey, 100% of the respondents said that they anticipate their electronic trading to grow. And if you think about machine learning and execution optimization, I think we're only at the beginning of that process. I think some of the advances in bringing the equity markets, such as the ETFs, into the fixed income side of the market is going to increase liquidity. I think bringing some of the tools that we've learned from foreign exchange, such as increasing internalization, creating SKUs, tiers, looking at mark-outs and responding accordingly, is, again, going to still bring further advances this year and in the years to come.

GORDON NOONAN: A lot of the buy side have always been keen to increase automation and increase electronification. What finally has happened in the last few years is that the EMSs have actually improved their functionality to allow us to realize a lot of what we planned on doing. So the quality of offering from the EMS is very, very important in this space. We need to introduce more logic there, more complicated rules that allow us then to increase our automation in a safe and risk-free manner where we can.

DAN BARNES: Gordon, Scott, that's been fantastic. Thank you.

GORDON NOONAN: Thanks very much.

SCOTT WACKER: Thank you very much.

DAN BARNES: I'd like to thank Scott and Gordon for their insights today, and of course, you for watching. To catch up on our other shows or to subscribe to our newsletter, go to



Market Matters

One of the biggest drivers of market structure change has been the growth of electronic trading. In this podcast, Kate Finlayson, Head of FICC Market Structure, Chi Nzelu, Head of FICC eTrading, and Andreas Koukorinis, Head of Credit and Public Finance eTrading, discuss the emerging themes surrounding electronification across asset classes.


Traders predict that 'Recession risk' will have the biggest impact on markets in 2023. Closely followed by 'Inflation' and 'Geopolitical conflict'.

Question asked: Which potential developments will have the greatest impact on the markets in 2023? (Rank in order of importance)

Potential Developments
Potential Developments

This chart reflects that traders predict Recession risk (30%) will have the biggest impact on markets in 2023. Followed by Inflation (26%), Geopolitical conflict (19%), Market and economy dislocation (14%), Government policy change (9%), ESG, Climate risk factors (1%) and Global pandemic (0%). For 2022: Inflation (48%) will have the biggest impact, followed by Market and economy dislocation (13%), Global pandemic (13%), Recession risk (5%) and ESG/Climate risk factors (3%).

For traders that predicted ‘Inflation’ to have an impact on markets, we asked them ‘What is your outlook for the impact of inflation when pricing it in for 2023?’, with 44% of traders predicting inflation will decrease.

Question asked: What is your outlook for the impact of inflation when pricing it in for 2023, based on the region you are located in? (Select one option)


This image shows that 44% of traders predict inflation will decrease. Followed by ‘Inflation will level off’ (37%) and ‘inflation will increase’(19%).

58% of traders surveyed based in the United States expect U.S. inflation levels to level off and 41% of traders surveyed based in the United Kingdom predict inflation to decrease.

Question asked: What is predicted impact of inflation, depending on the survey participants' location by region?


This chart displays what percentage of traders predict inflation to increase, decrease or level off, by their location: U.K., U.S., Rest of Europe and APAC. For U.K.-based traders, the graph shows inflation will increase (27%), decrease (41%) and level off (32%). For U.S.-based traders, the graph shows inflation will increase (10%), decrease (32%) and level off (58%). For traders in the Rest of Europe, the graph shows inflation will increase (13%), decrease (56%) and level off (31%). For APAC-based traders, the graph shows inflation will increase (25%), decrease (35%) and level off (40%).