Key takeaways
- EMEA ECM activity remains strong and ahead of trend heading into the second half of the year, up ~30% year-over-year and slightly ahead of 10-year averages.
- Issuance is heavily driven by Accelerated Bookbuilds (ABBs) and Follow-ons, including multiple mega-sized trades.
- Sector concentration is pronounced, led by Industrials and Natural Resources, consistent with tailwinds from the AI ecosystem buildout.
- Equity-linked and primary issuance have rebounded, and the IPO outlook is improving into the second half of the year, with activity expected to accelerate post-summer.
Global capital markets activity has been remarkably buoyant in the first half of 2026. Equity capital markets (ECM) in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) are no exception, with $95 billion total volume year-to-date (YTD) tracking up 30% year-over-year (YoY) and slightly ahead of 10-year averages. Here's a review of the activity from the first half of the year — and a peek at what's ahead.
Key themes driving European equity capital markets in H1 2026
Halfway through 2026, three key themes have taken shape across the landscape of the European equity capital markets. In a year headlined by the AI infrastructure buildout, geopolitical uncertainty and central bank hawkish pivots amidst inflation uncertainty, the equity markets have shown resilience and robustness.
The Stoxx600 closed the first half of the year up 8.4%, with Q2 the best performing quarter for the index since 2020. The two best performing sectors YTD were technology (+25.5%) and energy (+20%) driven by the aforementioned factors.
“The question is no longer whether the IPO market will return, but when. Given the strength of the pipeline and improving market backdrop, we believe activity will accelerate post-summer.”
Ashish Jhajharia
Head of EMEA Equity Capital Markets, J.P. Morgan
YTD volumes have been skewed towards Accelerated Bookbuilds (ABBs) and Follow-ons (~60% YTD vs a 10-year average of 47%), including 12 transactions that were over $1 billion in size, with J.P. Morgan advising on 50% of them. March was the single highest month of ABB issuance in EMEA on record (~$20 billion volume).
Dealmaking year-to-date sits above the 10-year average
Deals by size show a preference toward Accelerated Bookbuilds, with volume currently above the 10-year average and well outpacing prior years, with the exception of 2024.
By sector, Natural Resources (including Utilities) and Industrials (including Defence) have made up over 50% of year-to-date volumes, with tailwinds from global megatrends such as the AI ecosystem buildout, geopolitical volatility, electrification and grid updates.
Dealmaking is showing a preference for industrials
Splitting out the deals by sector shows a heavy preference for industrials, consistent with AI tailwinds.
Equity-linked issuance continues to see a resurgence, with YTD volumes tracking up ~150% YoY.
Equity-linked splits are enjoying a resurgence
Equity-linked split issuance sits above the 10-year average, the pre-Covid average, and well above the past five years.
Investors have been consistent in their support of primary raises intended to fund M&A activity as well as to support accelerated investment roadmaps. Primary issuance has made up nearly 50% of year-to-date ABB volumes (significantly higher than average splits), and total primary issuance of $41 billion is tracking up +131% year-over-year.
Primary vs. secondary ABBs show a relatively even split
Primary and secondary ABB volumes sit above the 10-year average and are demonstrating greater balance than in years past.
The median discount on Accelerated Bookbuilds
Median discounts for ABBs appear relatively consistent with past years.
Select transactions that
J.P. Morgan advised on in H1 2026
- Multibillion dollar secondary sales in Galderma and Naturgy
- Multibillion dollar primary raises from RWE and Engie to fund M&A. RWE’s primary ABB was the largest in German history
- Multibillion dollar primary raises from PPC and United Utilities to fund AI-linked investment plans
- $4.5 billion Initial Public Offering of CSG which was the largest in EMEA since 2022
- $1.5 billion in Convertible Bonds for STMicroelectronics
“Driving much of the momentum in ECM activity is clear and consistent investor appetite to back credible growth stories. There is significant investor excitement for the broader data center ecosystem that the AI thematic is unlocking.”
Sunil Dhupelia
Head of Equity Capital Markets International, J.P. Morgan
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