Key takeaways

  • Volatility is reshaping dealmaking by influencing the cost of capital and deal timing — and it’s a parameter that investors are increasingly pricing in.
  • Strategic M&A activity remains strong, with companies prioritizing resilience and transformation in addition to scale.
  • The growing influence of private capital offers investors faster and more flexible financing alternatives.

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Geopolitical developments — most notably the recent military escalation in Iran — have underscored just how quickly market conditions can change. What dealmakers are facing today is not episodic volatility, but a sustained, structural shift in the operating environment.

The pace and magnitude of recent reactions across energy and capital markets underscore how quickly conditions can shift. Supply disruptions are once again in focus, pricing dynamics are adjusting in real time and investor sentiment is becoming increasingly reactive to geopolitical signals.

Longer-term forces, including AI-driven disruption and divergent interest rates, further complicate the dealmaking backdrop. The result is a market dynamic unlike previous cycles: one where volatility is constant, windows of opportunity are narrower and conditions can shift materially within days.

Against this backdrop, dealmakers must act with greater speed and precision, treating volatility as a parameter to navigate — not a reason to pause.

Strategic M&A activity continues to be strong, with companies prioritizing resilience and transformation in addition to scale. Today, companies are building more durable supply chains and core capabilities, and many are also viewing digital transformation as a critical lever for value creation. In addition, some are divesting non-core or underperforming assets to reallocate capital to higher-growth sectors.

Large-scale transactions continue, but with more rigorous underwriting and clearer strategic rationale. This shift is reshaping competitive dynamics across the industry, as leading platforms gain share and clients prioritize execution certainty — reflected in J.P. Morgan’s M&A fees nearly doubling year over year in the first quarter of 2026, significantly outpacing broader wallet growth.

The WB-Paramount deal stands out as a defining example of this environment. One of the most visible and competitive M&A situations in recent years, it highlighted how outcomes are increasingly driven not just by valuation, but by certainty of close, strategic alignment and the ability to navigate complex, evolving dynamics in real time.

This trend extends across sectors, including energy, where transactions such as Coterra-Devon Energy reflect a continued focus on scale, portfolio optimization and long-term positioning.

Recent high-profile transactions reflecting transformation and resilience include:

  • AES | $33.4 billion: J.P. Morgan advised American utility and power generation company AES on its $33.4 billion proportional sale to a consortium headed by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and EQT, enabling AES to drive long-term growth and capitalize on surging electricity demand.
  • InPost | EUR 9.8 billion: J.P. Morgan advised European courier service InPost on its EUR 9.8 billion sale to Advent, FedEx, A&R and PPF, supporting its footprint expansion and digital growth.
  • L3Harris | $1 billion: J.P. Morgan was the exclusive financial advisor for American aerospace and defense company L3Harris’s transformational $1 billion convertible preferred security investment from the Pentagon, aligning with the firm’s Security and Resiliency Initiative.
  • ST Telemedia | $5.1 billion: J.P. Morgan advised communications investor ST Telemedia on its acquisition by a consortium comprising KKR and Singtel. As part of the deal, the consortium will acquire an 82% stake in ST Telemedia Global Data Centers for $5.1 billion, helping it scale for growing cloud and AI demand.
  • UniFirst | $5.5 billion: J.P. Morgan advised American uniform rental company UniFirst on its $5.5 billion sale to direct competitor Cintas, which targets $375 million in operating cost synergies within four years. 

Regionally, momentum is building, albeit unevenly. Japan remains a major driver of M&A activity, with outbound dealmaking up roughly 125% in 2025, fueled by activism, take-privates and non-core divestitures. EMEA deal volumes are approaching $393 billion year to date, supported by a resurgence in mega-deals, and Latin America’s deal volumes have more than doubled to approximately $39 billion year to date.

Overall, capital is flowing toward assets that enhance resilience, build digital infrastructure and support long-term, sustainable growth. In this dynamic and selective environment, execution and strategic alignment are proving just as important as scale.

 

Private capital continues to expand across the deal ecosystem. Despite higher borrowing costs, private equity firms remain active as they seek to deploy near-record dry powder — around $3.7 trillion globally, according to Preqin. Elsewhere, private credit has become a critical source of flexible financing, particularly for small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) and middle-market companies, while alternative deal structures are increasingly being used to bridge valuation gaps. In Asia Pacific alone, deal volume in private capital markets hit $48 billion in 2025, up 15% year over year.

A standout transaction is the recent $55 billion leveraged buyout of video game company Electronic Arts by a consortium of private equity investors, including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners. J.P. Morgan is providing $20 billion in committed debt financing and leading an $8 billion junk bond sale to finance the deal, which marks the largest all-cash sponsor take-private in history.

In today’s volatile environment, private markets can give investors greater speed, flexibility and execution certainty with less regulatory red tape. Private lenders provide bespoke structuring solutions, allowing companies to better align financing with strategic objectives.

Clearly, private markets are no longer “alternative;” instead, they are becoming increasingly central to how deals get done.

AI investment is surging, with global spending on data centers, AI infrastructure and related power supplies projected at $5 trillion — over half of which is directed toward servers and storage. Data centers are expected to drive much of this capital, with 2026 capital expenditure from the top four U.S. hyperscalers estimated at $480 billion. Capital is also flowing into enterprise software, automation, cybersecurity and data governance, as investors seek to unlock opportunities across the entire AI value chain.

AI is also influencing how deals are evaluated. For instance, growth assumptions are changing, with buyers factoring in potential AI-driven revenue increases. This is leading to higher valuations, particularly for large software and data firms. 

Equity capital markets (ECM) and debt capital markets (DCM) are building on strong issuance from 2025, despite significant volatility driven by geopolitics, AI disruption and uncertainty in private credit. This is reinforcing competitive positioning across capital markets, where scale and distribution matter most — evidenced by J.P. Morgan gaining wallet share in the first quarter of 2026 and ranking #1 across investment ECM and DCM.

In this environment, investors are being more selective, favoring defensive, hard-asset sectors seen as immune to AI risks. Issuers must be ready to act quickly, and tactical deal execution is more critical than ever.

Despite the evolving macro backdrop, IPO activity is rising globally, with volumes up nearly 50% year over year. J.P. Morgan anticipates solid growth across all regions in 2026, with EMEA and Southeast Asia already well ahead of last year’s pace. There has been a notable increase in issuance from diversified industries, including defense, and particularly strong activity from AI supply chain issuers. Convertible bond issuance also remains exceptionally active, with U.S. volumes more than doubling year over year. Overall, the new issue market is firmly open for issuers with a compelling story and strong sector tailwinds.

Key capital markets transactions this year include: 

  • PayPay | $880 million: PayPay, Japan’s largest mobile payments platform, executed an $880 million IPO in March 2026, with J.P. Morgan acting as joint book-running manager and stabilization agent. In mid-March, PayPay’s shares traded ~40% higher than their IPO pricing of $16.
  • SoftBank Group | $40 billion: J.P. Morgan recently acted as structuring bank, underwriter, arranger and facility agent for SoftBank Group’s $40 billion bridge loan facility, supporting expanded investments in OpenAI. 

Cross-border activity is up 45% year over year, making up nearly a third of total M&A volumes. However, geopolitical risks are reshaping investor approaches. For instance, conflicts in energy-critical regions have underscored the importance of geographic diversification, local market access and operational resilience. There is also heightened regulatory scrutiny, with official bodies adapting frameworks and imposing tighter controls to safeguard economic security. As a result, companies are increasingly “friendshoring” (the practice of relocating supply chains to countries that are political and economic allies) to boost resilience and minimize disruption.

Recent cross-border mega-deals of note include: 

  • Nuveen and Schroders | £9.9 billion: Pantheon, a subsidiary of American asset manager Nuveen, announced a recommended ~£9.9 billion cash offer for U.K.-based active investment manager Schroders, combining two complementary businesses. The offer represents a significant premium to Schroders’ share price and a 17x multiple of its 2025 earnings. J.P. Morgan Cazenove is the financial adviser and corporate broker to Schroders for this transaction, which will create one of the world’s largest global active asset managers.
  • Santander and Webster | $12.3 billion: Spanish financial services company Banco Santander acquired Connecticut-based Webster Financial Corporation, creating a top-10 U.S. retail and commercial bank by assets. J.P. Morgan acted as lead financial advisor to Webster in what is the largest ever acquisition of a U.S. commercial bank by a European bank.
  • Zurich and Beazley | £8.2 billion: Zurich Insurance Group’s ~£8.2 billion cash offer in March for U.K.-based Beazley combines two global specialty insurers. J.P. Morgan Cazenove acted as joint adviser and broker to Beazley.
  • Olaplex and Henkel | $1.4 billion: In March, German chemical and consumer goods company Henkel entered into a definitive agreement to acquire American haircare brand Olaplex for $1.4 billion. J.P. Morgan acted as exclusive financial advisor to Olaplex. 

 

In today’s volatile and fast-evolving market, traditional financing methods often fall short. As such, J.P. Morgan is supporting companies with more flexible, tailored strategies that align capital with long-term strategy and investor expectations — a solutions-oriented approach that has cemented its status as the #1 investment banking franchise globally.

Recent transactions highlight this shift. Fleet Data Center’s $3.8 billion project financing and Nscale’s $2 billion Series C funding underscore the appetite for well-structured deals tied to hyperscale capacity, while Oracle’s hybrid capital raise and Salesforce’s large-scale share repurchase reflect the growing use of integrated debt and equity solutions. Software company  Wix’s structured private investment demonstrates how growth companies are aligning capital with long-term value creation.  

Across the market, the common thread is clear: financing is increasingly bespoke, requiring a broader toolkit and more adaptable execution to meet ever more complex objectives.

Looking ahead: Positioned for growth, built for uncertainty

Overall, the outlook for global dealmaking is constructive, but conditions will remain dynamic as the macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop evolves. In the coming months, the landscape will likely be characterized by continued investment in AI and infrastructure, the expansion of private capital solutions and strategic M&A focused on resilience and capability-building — key themes investors should keep in mind as they navigate the next phase of dealmaking.

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