U.S. equity markets continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience. After rallying to new highs—supported by optimism around a potential U.S.–China trade deal, the Federal Reserve’s latest decision and strong corporate earnings—major indices have held steady despite modest pullbacks. Notably, the broader AI theme is emerging as a market barometer, with significant capex investments and performance gains driving investor enthusiasm and sector leadership.
Investor sentiment remains constructive, with consensus expectations pointing to an economic reacceleration in early 2026 as Fed policy and fiscal stimulus take effect. Although few near-term catalysts remain for additional upside, investors continue to stay fully invested in a market that has largely moved one way—higher.
Activity Accelerates
Despite the recent government shutdown, Equity capital markets activity has picked up meaningfully following the blackout period, with issuers seizing on constructive conditions and investors demonstrating strong risk appetite. Over the past few weeks, $12.3 billion was raised across 26 transactions, spanning IPOs, follow-ons, block trades and convertible offerings.
Year-to-date, total U.S. issuance has reached $311 billion, up 19% year over year, signaling renewed confidence and liquidity depth across sectors.
A Measured but Optimistic Market
While macro crosscurrents—including the ongoing government shutdown, recent layoffs and lingering uncertainty around the Fed’s next move—have introduced caution, investors continue to show a strong bias toward staying long. Passive inflows and the return of corporate buybacks are expected to provide a supportive bid through year-end, particularly as funds seek to catch up on performance during what is typically a seasonally strong period. Convertible and structured equity issuance also remain in focus.
“Investors remain highly engaged across all ECM products—from IPOs to converts—reflecting confidence in both market fundamentals and innovation-led growth stories.”
David Bauer
Co-Head of Americas Equity Capital Markets
Several recent J.P. Morgan-led transactions have set the tone for quality execution and strong aftermarket performance across diverse sectors:
- HeartFlow Inc. | AI-Driven Cardiac Diagnostics
HeartFlow Inc., a leader in AI-driven cardiac diagnostics, attracted deep support from healthcare investors. The transaction underscored the continued strength of innovation-focused healthcare names and demonstrated the market’s willingness to back clear clinical and commercial differentiation. - Circle Internet Group | Digital Financial Infrastructure
Circle Internet Group successfully executed a strategic equity raise amid growing institutional interest in digital financial infrastructure, highlighting investor confidence in blockchain-enabled platforms. - Pattern Group | Energy Transition
Pattern Group’s offering reinforced the appeal of the energy-transition theme, benefiting from both ESG-driven allocations and renewed focus on resilient yield assets. - Alliance Laundry Systems | $950 Million Sponsor-Backed IPO
Alliance Laundry Systems successfully completed a $950 million sponsor-backed IPO, marking one of the largest industrial listings of the year. The offering—backed by BDT Capital Partners—was met with strong institutional demand, pricing at the top of the range and trading up more than 22% from its IPO price, reflecting investor confidence in recurring revenue and aftermarket services within the commercial-laundry sector. - Quantinuum | $800 Million Quantum Computing Funding Round Quantinuum expanded its oversubscribed funding round from $600 million to $800 million, attracting new and existing global investors. The capital will support the launch of Helios, its next-generation quantum computing system, and further accelerate commercial momentum — reinforcing J.P. Morgan’s leadership in deep tech and quantum computing.
Across the board, the 2025 IPO performance has been strong, with J.P. Morgan-led IPOs up 50% on average. The market continues to reward strong fundamentals, clear growth narratives and disciplined execution.
Looking Ahead
After a period of selectivity, the IPO window is firmly reopening. Last week 5 IPOs priced for $1.9 billion and 3 IPOs are on the road. Follow-on activity meaningfully picked up; two $1 billion registered blocks, both led by J.P. Morgan. We expect activity in both convert and follow-ons to remain healthy.
Issuers are leaning into supportive conditions and investor demand for quality new issuance, particularly as valuations stabilize and secondary market performance improves.
The backdrop for equity issuance remains constructive. Markets have proven resilient in the face of macro noise, investor engagement remains high, and the deal pipeline is steadily expanding. As the year draws to a close, the focus for issuers will be on precision—timing, structure and positioning—to capture sustained investor demand.
Despite near-term caution, the U.S. equity capital markets remain open, active and resilient—driven by investor conviction and the strong performance of recent landmark transactions. J.P. Morgan continues to help clients navigate this dynamic environment with tailored advice, deep sector expertise and a proven track record of leading high-quality transactions. We expect both issuers and investors to be very active post re-opening of the US Government and into 2026.
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