After more than a decade of stable policy rates and abundant liquidity, 2026 brought a decisive shift: central banks across Asia Pacific (APAC) are pulling in different directions, reshaping how companies borrow, refinance, invest and hedge.

Japan, Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines are hiking, while China could be cutting, varying the cost of funding from market by market and company by company across the region.

“After years of a very low rate environment, corporates expected the recent rise to be temporary in nature. Instead, we find ourselves in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Large corporates with sophisticated treasuries can absorb those swings, versus small and medium-sized companies that have less hedging in place and more margin pressure,” said Oliver Brinkmann, Co-Head, Global Corporate Banking, Asia Pacific at J.P. Morgan.

Certain central banks in APAC have intervened directly to steady their currencies this year, among them Japan and Korea. In the case of the yen, Japan spent around $100 billion in coordination with the U.S. For corporate Japan, this has reshaped how companies fund and hedge.

“In the case of the yen, hedging costs have fallen materially — to four-year lows — and are likely to go lower still. We're currently around 2.8%, and could head toward 2.5%,” said Rahul Deora, Head of Corporate FX & Rates, Asia Pacific and Head of Local Markets Sales, South Asia, at J.P. Morgan.

Fluctuations in rates will impact some sectors more than others. Technology and high-growth companies are the most rate-sensitive of all — higher rates compress forward multiples and lift the cost of capital, reshaping how projects are funded and how founders plan for exits. Nowhere is that clearer than in the hyperscalers and AI infrastructure powering the region's next wave of investment.

With global AI-related capital expenditure (capex) projected to approach $870 billion by the end of 2026, Asia Pacific (APAC) sits at the center of an unprecedented investment wave. That 77% year-over-year climb in AI capex, on top of around $5.5 trillion in data center spending¹ over the five years to 2030, means the region's semiconductor makers, cloud infrastructure and startups are among the biggest beneficiaries.

For the founders building through it, that opportunity is still complex.

“We're at the precipice of a platform transition that creates an unbridled opportunity in AI. At the same time, there are crosswinds — whether geopolitical, macroeconomic or supply chain-related. Founders need to build for both growth and resilience,” said Mark Fiteny, head of TMT and New Economy Investment Banking, Asia Pacific, at J.P. Morgan.

Venture capital investment has started to shift its focus with this transition. While significant value remains to be captured at the application layer, funding is increasingly flowing toward projects where AI meets the physical world — such as robotics, automation, edge computing and quantum computing.

The implications for founders navigating this environment are significant. Supply chains are more complex, capital deployment cycles are longer and the fundraising process needs to reflect this new reality.

“Investors are looking to see how companies are going to use AI to drive innovation — and whether it translates into a scalable, resilient business model,” said Amy Tan, head of Tech and Innovation, Global Corporate Banking, Asia Pacific, at J.P. Morgan.

On exits, the message from investors is clear: optionality is everything. Whether dual-tracking a private capital raise alongside an IPO or exploring a trade sale, companies that prepare ahead of the window — rather than waiting for it — are best placed to move when conditions allow.

While tech sector investment is looking ahead, energy markets are grappling with a more immediate challenge. Crude oil markets are facing one of the most severe supply shocks on record, driven by the Middle East conflict and its cascading effects across global trade routes.



Global oil demand slumped 4.3 million barrels a day (mbd) in April, climbing to 5.5 mbd in May, driving an inventory drawdown that will keep prices elevated for longer. When stability returns, governments will race to rebuild strategic reserves — putting a floor under oil prices well beyond what current market expectations imply.

“Headline fatigue is setting in. But don't mistake the price moves for stability. The real impact is being felt on the product side — gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), jet fuel. That's where the real stress is,” said Raman Walia, head of Commodities Sales for Asia Pacific at J.P. Morgan.