Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in the Earth’s interconnected systems, where even a small increase in global temperature can set off a series of self-reinforcing changes, triggering a new state. These shifts can be hard or impossible to reverse, with far-reaching consequences including migration, conflict and geopolitical instability.
Despite their ramifications, climate tipping points remain an abstract concept for many, as it is difficult to predict exactly when they might begin and how quickly changes might unfold. There is also a lack of historical precedent, which means the social, financial and national security impacts of these phenomena are not widely understood. This deep uncertainty often places them beyond the realm of traditional financial decision-making.
In the latest report in the “Climate Intuition” series, Dr. Sarah Kapnick explores the science behind climate tipping points, the importance of pricing them in and approaches to making decisions under deep uncertainty.
“Climate tipping points are under-modeled … their lack of historical analogues and deeply uncertain nature make them difficult to plan for. However, scenarios and tabletop exercises, borrowed from other spheres of decision-making, can help prepare for emerging shifts.”
Dr. Sarah Kapnick
Global Head of Climate Advisory, J.P. Morgan
About Dr. Sarah Kapnick
Dr. Sarah B. Kapnick is the global head of Climate Advisory at J.P. Morgan. In this role, she advises the bank’s clients on climate, energy, biodiversity and sustainability topics. Responsible for overseeing the firm’s climate thought leadership strategy, Dr. Kapnick leverages extensive technical and scientific expertise to drive content strategy and advise clients at the intersection of finance, climate science, commerce and national security. She has received several recognitions for her work at J.P. Morgan and “Climate Intuition” series, including being named to the 2025 TIME100 Climate and Bloomberg Green “Ones to Watch” lists.
She was previously with the bank’s Asset and Wealth Management division as senior climate scientist and sustainability strategist.
Prior to her current role, Dr. Kapnick was chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), responsible for guiding the programmatic focus of NOAA’s science and technology priorities. She spent a decade at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) leading research on seasonal climate prediction, mountain snowpack, extreme storms, water security, climate economics and climate impacts.
Dr. Kapnick earned a PhD in atmospheric and oceanic sciences with a certificate in Leaders in Sustainability from UCLA and an AB in mathematics with a certificate in finance from Princeton University.
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