Key takeaways

  • Geopolitical tensions, market volatility and cybersecurity risks are reshaping long-term planning, with treasurers adopting a cautious but proactive mindset for the second half of 2026.
  • AI and tokenization are moving from experimentation to targeted implementation, with data quality and governance emerging as prerequisites for scalable adoption.
  • Improving cash flow and implementing new technologies are at the top of treasury agendas for the next 12 months.

Corporate treasurers are entering the second half of 2026 anticipating persistent volatility, accelerating technology innovation and a resilience agenda that must move beyond contingency planning. Against this backdrop, polling from finance leaders from 26 countries and 60-plus industries, gathered at J.P. Morgan's EMEA Treasurers Forum in London, offers a real-time benchmark of where treasury priorities stand. Caution dominates the economic outlook, AI and tokenization are advancing from exploration to execution, and operational resilience has become a strategic imperative in its own right. Here’s where treasurers in the region are focused. 

Risk management and the economic outlook for 2H 2026

Long-term planning has shifted from forecasting to continuous scenario management. When asked to identify the biggest challenges shaping long-term business planning, treasurers pointed to a broad range of risks across interest rates, inflation and evolving cybersecurity threats. The most common challenge cited was geopolitical tensions, with over 50% of respondents identifying ongoing conflicts as their biggest barrier for future planning. 

What are your biggest challenges for long-term business planning? 

A bar chart showing over 50% of treasurers believe geopolitical tensions and conflicts are the biggest barrier to long-term planning.

The macro environment is structurally more complex than a typical cycle. Public and private investment forces are reshaping the macro landscape, as regional governments increase spending tied to domestic resilience priorities and technology hyperscalers drive large-scale infrastructure investment. This occurs while energy disruption and inflation pressure can quickly reprice risk. For treasury, that combination translates into a more fragile equilibrium: growth can persist, but the distribution of outcomes widens, increasing the value of flexibility.

Treasurers are well aware of the possible highs and lows. When polled on expectations for global economic conditions through year-end, respondents skewed toward stable or worsening conditions rather than a decisive improvement. The relevant planning response is to stress-test liquidity under adverse operating conditions while avoiding a blanket “risk-off” posture that blocks strategic optionality. 

What is your view on global economic conditions as we look to the second half of 2026? 

AI and tokenization: moving from experiments to foundations

AI has moved from a technology conversation to an operating model conversation. In polling on where AI will have the biggest impact over the next year, treasurers most frequently selected financially material use cases, including employee productivity, forecasting and planning, and automated reporting and fraud detection. These priorities reflect a pragmatic thesis: treasury is targeting applications that shorten close cycles, improve decision quality and reduce operational loss, not abstract innovation for its own sake.

In what areas of your business do you expect AI technologies will have the biggest impact in the next year? 

Successful AI deployment in treasury depends on readiness fundamentals. Forum discussion emphasized that many near-term “AI wins” are driven by process automation, disciplined data management and clearly defined controls, with advanced models only as effective as the data and governance that surround them. To prepare for AI implementation, treasurers should prioritize data quality, process documentation and policy controls, with a bias toward use cases that can be tested and scaled without creating new operational risk.

Tokenization is on a similar trajectory, with treasury interest clustered around tangible workflow benefits. Polling on tokenization highlighted use cases such as programmable payments, avoiding cutoff windows, moving money and information simultaneously and improving transaction security. For globally distributed corporates, these capabilities map directly to pain points: timing friction, reconciliation delays and operational risk created by handoffs across systems and time zones.

Overall, tokenization is seen as complementary to existing treasury infrastructure. The operational path is to start with a defined use case, clarify what “success” looks like in measurable terms (for example, faster settlement confirmation) and ensure controls keep pace with speed. Tokenization does not eliminate the need for governance, segregation of duties and clear authorization frameworks.

How do you think tokenization will support your business in the future? 

A bar graph showing where treasurers in EMEA believe tokenization can support their businesses. Nearly 40% cite avoiding traditional cutoff windows as the main benefit.

Liquidity, M&A and capital allocation

Forum polling on expected M&A activity in the second half of 2026 shows over 40% of respondents anticipate an increase versus the first half, with over 30% expecting M&A activity to stay steady. In a volatile market, that expectation shows treasurers want to preserve the ability to act if valuation gaps close or if opportunities emerge.

Forum discussion on capital structure and ratings highlighted how that readiness is being financed and governed. The session themes included flexible leverage targets, liquidity as both buffer and “firepower” and the growing complexity introduced by hybrid capital and private credit structures. For treasury leaders, the control objective is to align capital structure choices with the company’s strategic plan and risk appetite, then ensure liquidity metrics and funding diversification support that plan under stress.

These strategic considerations sit alongside a packed operating agenda. When asked to identify top priorities for the next 12 months, the majority of respondents highlighted improving cash flow and working capital. Other concerns included implementation of new technologies, reduced costs and streamlined processes. The list is notable for its breadth and internal tension: treasurers must both modernize and de-risk, often with constrained resources. 

What are your top priorities for the next 12 months? 

The next twelve months: three imperatives for treasurers

Volatility in rates, geopolitics and markets demands stress-tested cash and funding assumptions, a clear liquidity buffer philosophy and well-governed hedging aligned to exposures that can move quickly.

AI and tokenization can deliver measurable gains in forecasting, controls and payment operations, but only where data quality, process clarity and governance are established upfront.

Fraud prevention and cyber preparedness are now core treasury priorities, requiring playbooks, escalation rights and regular testing rather than static documentation.

In a market defined by both uncertainty and innovation, deliberate preparation is the most reliable source of optionality.

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