Hot Air Balloons at sunrise in Goreme, Cappadocia, Turkey

Hidden behind ongoing bank headlines was the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release of February inflation data on Tuesday morning.

The verdict: Headline prices increased 0.4% through the month of February, while core inflation (which strips out food and energy prices) accelerated 0.5% month-over-month (from last month’s 0.4%).

To dig into some of the details, services prices are still increasing at a pretty fast clip, with shelter (think housing rentals) the biggest driver once again (accounting for 70% of the increase in headline prices). People also seemed to have made a lot of use of pet services and hair salons over the last month. On the other hand, a promising sign came as goods deflation continued—used auto prices fell on the month.

Infographic describes U.S. headline and core CPI month-over-month from 2018 to 2023

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics. Data as of February 28, 2023. *OER stands for Owners' Equivalent Rent.

What it means for the Fed: It’s not the best-case scenario, but it’s also not the worst. At this point, the Fed has found itself in a difficult situation—inflation is still hot, but ensuring the financial system keeps running smoothly is likely an even bigger focus. We think that means we are nearing the final stages. On top of the rate hikes the Fed has already delivered, the pressure in the banking system means the decision for businesses and consumers to borrow, invest and spend is more complicated. That should continue to slow growth and inflation from here.

As for what that means for the Fed’s next move at its March 22 meeting, it’s difficult to call. The CPI print alone would support a 0.25% move, but with recent regional bank failures in mind, it’s possible they take a pause to see how this shakes out.

Over the next few days, it will be important to see how investors respond to policymakers’ moves to ease the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) fallout.

All market data from Bloomberg Finance L.P., 3/14/23

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