2019 J.P. Morgan Global Payment Trends

2019 Global Payments Trends Report - Poland Country Insights

POLAND INSIGHTS REPORT


This fast-growing market is one to watch as strong consumer confidence continues to help drive e-commerce sales. 

Introduction

The Polish e-commerce market is showing impressive growth,1 which is unsurprising considering the overall performance of the economy. Gross domestic product growth was 5.1 percent in 2018.2 The main driver has been private consumption and strong consumer confidence, driven by high wage growth.3 Slowing employment levels in the economy is reducing this positive growth, however. In this environment, it is no surprise that Poland is forecast to have double-digit growth for e-commerce up to 2021,making it one of the most dynamic European markets covered in our study.*

This document is based on projected figures and is subject to change at any time.

Polish shoppers seek homegrown bargains in a price-conscious arena 

 

Online shopping has taken some time to establish itself within Poland: the country’s business to consumer e-commerce market is worth €9.9 billion,15 representing a modest 1.9 percent of the overall European e-commerce market.16 Growth, however, has been steady in recent years and is set to continue at a double-digit compound annual growth rate of 10 percent to 2021.17

Average annual online spend per capita is €581, a low figure in comparison with the European average of €2,186.18 This figure is linked to the economic development of the country and its legacy as a former Soviet state. Indeed, only the Czech Republic and Poland, out of the European countries in this report series, have e-commerce spends lower than €1,000 per person. In addition, Polish online shoppers have a tendency to be highly cost-conscious. Consumers seek to compare prices, websites and deals before committing to a purchase: 62 percent say they always use comparison websites before ordering online.19 This behavior is reflected in Poland’s top three e-commerce sites: Amazon-style platform Allegro.pl (first), classified ads shopping site OLX.pl (second) and fellow price comparison platform Ceneo.pl (third).20

It should be noted that all of these sites are Polish. Cross-border spending is low, with international e-commerce accounting for only six percent of total e-commerce spend, or €0.6 billion of sales.21 Just 10 percent of online shoppers opt to buy products from abroad,22 but when Polish consumers do choose to buy from overseas companies, they tend to seek out items from major online merchant markets – China, the UK and Germany.23 The primary driver of cross-border shopping is price, with 25 percent saying this is the main reason for choosing to shop outside of Poland.24

Brands hoping to break into the Polish e-commerce market will need to be patient. An overwhelming majority of Polish people, 94 percent, currently say they would not buy a product via a click-through advert on a social media website or an app.25  Retailers will need a long-term strategy to establish themselves in such an arena, with the need to incentivize consumers to adopt online shopping habits. 

 

Ban on Sunday trading may lead to online merchant uplift

 

In terms of event-based shopping, Cyber Monday is slowly gaining traction in Poland, with a variety of deals offered in 2018, while the Polish consumer watchdog has also sought to educate shoppers on their rights during the sales period.26 Polish consumers tend to be last-minute shoppers, with 60 to 70 percent of gifts ordered online in the last two weeks before Christmas.27

Looking ahead, the ban on Sunday trading across Poland, which came into force in 2018, could also drive e-commerce sales. Shoppers will look to the online channel to fulfill their shopping urges after physical stores are increasingly forced to shut-up shop. Trade was initially banned on two Sundays per month; this has risen to three Sundays each month as of 2019, before a complete ban is scheduled for 2020.28

Delivery expectations are moderate, with the majority of shoppers (67 percent) expecting their order to arrive within three to five days. Only one in five shoppers think deliveries should arrive within 48 hours of ordering.29 This could change as increasing numbers of orders lead to heightened expectations of service and speed. State-backed delivery group Poczta Polska estimated that courier companies in the country delivered 40 million more parcels in 2018 than in 2017, a 20 percent year-on-year increase. In fact, major logistics providers including DHL, Poczta Polska and DPD have all recruited additional staff and are raising salaries to upskill their workforce ahead of the expected growth in Polish online shopping.30

Converting browsing to closed deals will be key in a market happy to adopt new technology

 

The Polish mobile commerce market is worth €1.1 billion, and takes an 11 percent share of overall e-commerce sales in the country.31 Mobile commerce is predicted to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 20 percent to 2021, to reach a value of €2.3 billion.32

This aggressive growth is being supported by the proliferation of consumer technology. For example, 70 percent of Polish citizens now own a smartphone.33 These devices are already heavily used for recreation and research, with one third of the total time spent browsing the internet done via smartphones.34 Converting browsing into completed sales via dedicated apps and mobile-optimized websites is the next key challenge for the Polish mobile commerce market if such growth is to be realized.

 

Demand for mobile shopping to be made as simple as possible

 

Furthering the case for a Polish appetite for greater mobile-focused shopping sites35 is the fact that apps are already used more than browsers to complete transactions. At present, they account for 53 percent of sales.36 Android is the market-leading mobile operating system, taking a 93 percent market share.37 The enthusiastic adoption of online banking is also playing a key role in the growth of Polish mobile commerce: it is estimated that 2.1 million citizens now bank solely through their smartphone, disregarding other available channels.38

In particular, domestic mobile payment system BLIK has been a Polish success story, with over 40 million transactions completed in 2018 alone. The product was developed and is run by six major Polish banks. It offers one-click purchasing, automated teller machine withdrawals and peer-to-peer payments via smartphone.39

Cards growing rapidly as a payment method

 

At present, bank transfers are Poland’s most-used payment method, taking a 50 percent share of all e-commerce transactions and €5 billion in yearly sales.40 Major banks tend to offer their own, branded e-commerce bank transfer solutions, such as MultiBank’s MultiTransfer service and Bank Zochadni’s e-commerce bank transfer platform.41 This method is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of eight percent to 2021, but the rapid rise of cards as a payment option will dent the overall share of transactions carried out by bank transfers.42 Indeed, cards are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 25 percent up until 2021 and will take almost 30 percent of the payment market. Card usage is growing quickly in the country as people turn away from cash payments, and Mastercard® and Visa® are already well established.43

Digital wallets are also growing in popularity. At the moment, they account for only 15 percent of online sales but this is set to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 33 percent out to 2021, when they are predicted to take a 23 percent market share.44 The rise of digital wallet facilities is being supported by Poland’s aforementioned high uptake of mobile banking and an overall willingness to adopt new payment technologies. Poland was one of the first European countries to embrace contactless technology, for example,45 and the rapid success of BLIK highlights the readiness of the Polish consumer to migrate to digital-only payment options. Financing options are also emerging to allow online shoppers to spread the cost of their purchases across installments. An estimated 42 percent of Polish online consumers have experienced having a lack of sufficient funds in their banking accounts to make an urgent purchase.46 Firms such as PayU now offer the ability to defer e-commerce payments up to 30 days after purchase.47

Poland is a Single Euro Payments Area member, but as of late 2018, it is yet to join the SEPA Instant Credit Transfer scheme.48 However, Poland already has a successful home-grown instant payment clearing scheme, Express Elixir. The system launched in June 2012 and, to date, 24 banks have joined the scheme, which is managed by KIR (Krajowa Izba Rozliczeniowa), the national clearing house.49

Express Elixir operates 24/7 and has a transaction limit of PLN100,000 (approximately €23,375). It allows settling of transactions in near real time. By using the infrastructure of KIR and the National Bank of Poland, the assets remain in the banking system without using any intermediary institutions.50

Fraud is low but could rise as card use grows

 

E-commerce fraud in Poland is low. Approximately one percent of online shoppers in the country experience fraud each year, compared with a European average of two percent.51 One reason for this is that there is a correlation between countries with very high card usage and the instances of e-commerce fraud.52 Bank transfers are popular in Poland and this payment method is typically less commonly used by fraudsters. Poland’s card usage is relatively low but is expanding very quickly, so merchants should be prepared for an increase in fraud attempts.53

Key takeaways

 

  • Poland’s business to consumer e-commerce market is worth €9.9 billion,54 representing a modest 1.9 percent of the overall European e-commerce market55
  • Meanwhile, the Polish mobile commerce market is worth €1.1 billion, and takes an 11 percent share of overall e-commerce sales in the country56
  • At present, bank transfers are Poland’s most-used payment method, taking a 50 percent share of all e-commerce transactions and €5 billion in yearly sales57

 

Data may vary from historical figures, due to certain categories being re-stated as new information sources have become available.

 

* J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report series includes the following European countries: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, The Netherlands, UK.

 

About J.P. Morgan

 

J.P. Morgan offers a full suite of payments services to enable a seamless connection across the payments continuum for clients. We bring our consultative expertise, data-driven insights, and local service around the globe to provide a more unified view of payables, receivables and cash management. Merchant Services is the payment acceptance and merchant acquiring business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) – a global financial services firm with assets of $2.6 trillion and operations worldwide.i According to The Nilson Report, it is also the top merchant acquirer of e-commerce transactions in Europe.ii

 

i JPMorgan Chase & Co. Q4 2018 Earnings Report 2018.

ii The Nilson Report, #1132 May 2018.

 

For more information, please contact:

 

Your J.P. Morgan Relationship Manager or visit: https://www.jpmorgan.com/europe/merchant-services/payment-insights

 

Information contained in this document has been prepared by third parties or obtained from sources which are believed to be reliable; but neither Chase Paymentech Europe Limited nor any of its affiliates warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information contained herein. Chase Paymentech Europe Limited and any of its affiliates shall have no liability to the user or to third parties, for the quality, accuracy, timeliness, or for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be experienced because of the use of or reliance on the data or statements made available herein. Third party trademarks, brand names, products and services are only referential and Chase Paymentech Europe Limited and its affiliates disclaims any sponsorship, affiliation or endorsement of or by any such third party.

 

Chase Paymentech Europe Limited, trading as J.P. Morgan, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered Office: J.P. Morgan, 200 Capital Dock, 79 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2 D02 RK57, Ireland. Registered in Ireland with the CRO under the Registration No. 474128.

Directors: Catherine Moore (UK), Carin Bryans, Dara Quinn, Steven Beasty (US), Eilish Finan

Copyright© 2019

 

1 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

2 European Commission. ‘Winter Economic Forecast – Poland.’ Accessed January 2019.

3 European Commission. ‘Winter Economic Forecast – Poland.’ Accessed January 2019.

4 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

5 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via World Bank, 2017.

6 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via CIA, 2017.

7 World Bank Open Data. ‘Poland.’ Accessed December 2018.

8 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

9 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

10 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

11 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Eurostat, 2017.

12 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Newzoo, 2018.

13 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via World Bank, 2017.

14 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via ECB Statistical Data Warehouse, 2018.

15 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via E-Commerce Foundation, 2016.

16 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

17 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

18 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

19 Ecommercewiki.org, November 2017. ‘Poland B2C Ecommerce Country Report 2017.’ Accessed December 2018.

20 SimilarWeb.com, 2018. ‘Top sites ranking for shopping in Poland.’ Accessed December 2018.

21 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been estimated for J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

22 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Eurostat, 2017.

23 Postnord.com. ‘E-Commerce in Europe 2017.’ Accessed December 2018.

24 Ecommercewiki.org, November 2017. ‘Poland B2C Ecommerce Country Report 2017.’ Accessed December 2018.

25 Ecommercewiki.org, November 2017. ‘Poland B2C Ecommerce Country Report 2017.’ Accessed December 2018.

26 TheNews.pl, November 2018. ‘Black Friday tips for shoppers from Polish consumer watchdog.’ Accessed December 2018.

27 TheNews.pl, November 2018. ‘Half of Poles to buy Christmas gifts online: report.’ Accessed December 2018.

28 The Guardian, March 2018. ‘Poland's Sunday trading ban takes effect.’ Accessed December 2018.

29 Ecommercewiki.org, November 2017. ‘Poland B2C Ecommerce Country Report 2017’. Accessed December 2018.

30 TheNews.pl, November 2018. ‘Half of Poles to buy Christmas gifts online: report.’ Accessed December 2018.

31 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

32 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

33 PaymentsJournal.com, March 2018. ‘Polish Payments More and More Mobile.’ Accessed December 2018.

34 PaymentsJournal.com, March 2018. ‘Polish Payments More and More Mobile.’ Accessed December 2018.

35 Gemius, E-Commerce Report 2017, 2017.

36 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

37 Ecommercewiki.org, November 2017. ‘Poland B2C Ecommerce Country Report 2017.’ Accessed December 2018.

38 PaymentsJournal.com, March 2018. ‘Polish Payments More and More Mobile.’ Accessed December 2018.

39 PaymentsJournal.com, March 2018. ‘Polish Payments More and More Mobile.’ Accessed December 2018.

40 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

41 About-Payments.com, 2019. ‘Which Online Payment Methods to Accept in Poland?’ Accessed March 2019.

42 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

43 About-Payments.com, 2019. ‘Which Online Payment Methods to Accept in Poland?’ Accessed March 2019.

44 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

45 PRNewswire.com, December 2017. ‘Payments Landscape in Poland: Opportunities and Risks to 2021.’ Accessed December 2018.

46 Payu.pl, January 2018. ‘What will 2018 bring for the e-commerce sector in Poland?’ Accessed December 2018.

47 Payu.pl, January 2018. ‘What will 2018 bring for the e-commerce sector in Poland?’ Accessed December 2018.

48 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via European Payments Council, 2018.

49 Kir.pl, 2018. ‘Express Elixir.’ Accessed December 2018.

50 Kir.pl, 2018. ‘Express Elixir.’ Accessed December 2018.

51 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Eurostat, 2017.

52 European Central Bank, ‘Fifth report on card fraud, September 2018.’ Accessed January 2018.

53 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

54 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via E-Commerce Foundation, 2016.

55 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

56 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

57 J.P. Morgan 2019 Payments Trends – Global Insights Report: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, 2018.

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