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Outlook

June 2023 jobs report reveals cooling labor market

July 10, 2023

The U.S. labor market added 209,000 jobs in June 2023, marking a slowdown in jobs growth. Read more about the employment data and the potential implications for your portfolio.

By Luke Conway

Senior Associate, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

By Luke Conway

Key takeaways

The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in June 2023, below the average of 278,000 per month over the first half of the year and well beneath last year’s monthly average of 399,000.
Downward revisions to data from prior months indicated 110,000 fewer job additions than previously reported in April and May collectively.
Unemployment ticked downward to 3.6% in June from 3.7% in May, while the labor force participation rate and employment population ratio remained stable over the month.
Average hourly earnings increased by 12 cents in June to $33.58, suggesting persistent inflationary pressure.

Overview of June 2023 jobs report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest report on the jobs market indicating that non-farm payrolls increased 209,000 in June 2023. The report also included downward revisions to data from prior months showing a combined 110,000 fewer job additions than previously reported in April and May.¹

Jobs growth in June marked a slowdown from the 278,000 jobs added per month over the first six months of 2023 and came in well below the monthly average of 399,000 reported in 2022.² The numbers indicate a cooldown in the labor market, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s attempts to tamp down inflation may be bearing fruit.

Despite this, the labor market is the strongest it’s been in years. Elyse Ausenbaugh, Global Investment Strategist at J.P. Morgan, noted how the jobs market is offering a solid environment for workers.

“The U.S. labor market is still hardy and offering a favorable environment for workers with an unemployment rate of just 3.6% and the highest rate of participation in the labor force amongst individuals aged 25-54 since 2002,” said Ausenbaugh.

She also noted that an increase in hours worked shows a strong market and a lower potential for layoffs.

“Although the economy added fewer jobs than expected in June, additions of 209,000 is still a strong pace. To boot, I found details like a tick-up in the average hours worked per week encouraging. That suggests that employers aren’t cutting hours, which could be a stepping stone to layoffs,” Ausenbaugh said.

Wages continued to move higher during the month. Average hourly earnings increased 12 cents to $33.58, bringing wage gains over the past 12 months up to a total of 4.4%.³ The persistence of wage growth complicates the notion that the labor market is slowing down and could inspire additional tightening measures by the Fed.

“Given that wage growth stayed firm at a 0.4% month-over-month pace, the next round of Consumer Price Index inflation data will get a lot of scrutiny,” said Ausenbaugh.

The labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.6% for the fourth month in a row. The employment population ratio of 60.3% also stayed unchanged in June.⁴

Strong areas for jobs growth included government, which added 60,000 jobs in June, although the government workforce remains 0.7% below its pre-pandemic level reported in February 2020. Health care employment jumped by 41,000 in June, only slightly below the 2023 monthly average of 42,000 jobs added in the industry. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality employment posted its third consecutive month of minimal changes and is hovering at 2.2% below its February 2020 level.⁵

Outlook for employment

The headline number of 209,000 non-farm payroll positions added in June marks a slowdown from the blistering pace of labor market growth seen over the past year as the U.S. economy continues to recover from the pandemic. The downward revisions to April and May jobs growth also support the notion of a cooling market.

However, despite the slower growth, employers continue to add to their payrolls, and the 4.4% year-over-year gains in average hourly wages suggest an enduring need to incentivize workers. The downtick in unemployment reported in June could also be taken as a signal of continued labor market resilience.

Potential portfolio implications

The impact of the jobs report on investors depends largely on how the Fed interprets and reacts to the latest data. At its June meeting, the central bank finally hit the pause button on its hiking cycle after 10 consecutive interest rate increases. However, officials said they would continue to monitor economic conditions and inflationary pressures, leaving the door open to additional interest rate boosts.⁶

“At this point, we’re all wondering the same thing: Can the Fed continue to cool inflation without causing excessive collateral damage in the broad economy, and especially the labor market? The answer is maybe – the ongoing resilience suggests that a soft landing scenario could still be on the table,” noted Ausenbaugh.

While the jobs market still has significant strength, the slowing pace may help to reduce fears of larger rate bumps in the future.

“From the perspective of markets and the Fed, I don’t think the story changes too much. The ultra-hot ADP jobs report that came out the day before this one stoked fears that the Fed would have to stay aggressive with rate hikes for longer than expected, but this latest data seems to have helped to quell some of that nervousness,” said Ausenbaugh.

References

Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The Employment Situation — June 2023.” (July 7, 2023)

Ibid.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee.” (June 13-14, 2023)

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Key takeaways

Overview of June 2023 jobs report

Outlook for employment

Potential portfolio implications

References

Show more

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