Business leaders across India are optimistic about the economy, according to our 2023 Business Leaders Outlook survey. Nearly two-thirds (63%) have a positive outlook about the global economy, and 68% are upbeat about the national economy.
Still, 61% of business leaders said they expect a recession in 2023. Compared with other countries surveyed at the same time, leaders in India are less worried about a recession than their counterparts in the United Kingdom (69%) and the United States (65%)—but more concerned than leaders in Germany (59%), France (53%) and Australia (46%).
The majority of leaders in India are confident in their own companies. A commanding 95% expect their revenues to increase or remain the same in 2023.
Inflation continues to weigh on businesses. Sourcing materials and shipping goods is also a challenge: 44% said supply chain pressures have gotten worse over the last 12 months.
Economic outlook and expectations
Indian business leaders are optimistic about the global, national and regional economies. And their optimism carries over to how they feel about their own industries and companies.
Economic outlook for 2023
Global economy: Optimistic 63%; Neutral 12%; Pessimistic 25%
National economy: Optimistic 68%; Neutral 11%; Pessimistic 21%
Local economy: Optimistic 61%; Neutral 18%; Pessimistic 21%
Industry performance: Optimistic 72%; Neutral 10%; Pessimistic 18%
Company performance: Optimistic 72%; Neutral 10%; Pessimistic 18%
Business expectations
Revenue/sales: Increase 91%; Remain the same 4%; Decrease 5%
Profits: Increase 84%; Remain the same 11%; Decrease 5%
Capital expenditures: Increase 76%; Remain the same 18%; Decrease 6%
Credit needs: Increase 82%; Remain the same 13%; Decrease 6%
Business challenges
Business leaders in India face several challenges today. Among them: persistent inflation, snarled supply chains and a tight labour market.
Top ways companies are adapting to inflation*
Watching change in relative prices: 53%
Making changes to purchasing: 50%
Prioritizing most profitable products: 49%
Raising prices: 47%
Changing pricing model: 47%
Automation and moving production (tie): 44%
*Among respondents who indicated they are experiencing inflation.
What’s driving up the cost of doing business*
Supply chain: 69%
Raw materials: 67%
Energy prices: 65%
*Among respondents who indicated they are experiencing inflation.
Top responses to the labour shortage*
Provide flexible work location: 64%
Increase wages and/or benefits: 60%
Offer flexible hours: 57%
Offer upskilling/training: 56%
Invest in automation: 53%
*Among respondents who indicated they are planning to increase staff or maintain their current headcount.
Top external business threats
Competition: 20%
Cybersecurity and fraud: 17%
Energy prices: 14%
Cost of debt/access to capital: 13%
General market volatility: 12%
Russia-Ukraine war: 11%
95% are considering investing in renewable sources of energy as a result of rising energy prices.*
*Among respondents who listed energy prices as their top external threat
Cyberattacks experienced in last 6 months
Security of data/integrity concerns: 43%
Crashing of company’s online services or site: 38%
Payments fraud: 36%
Malware (including ransomware): 36%
Business email compromise: 36%
Social responsibility
Top areas of focus within corporate responsibility: Social 74%; Environmental 64%; Diversity, equity and inclusion 64%
Top objectives motivating corporate responsibility*
Improve employee retention: 63%
Enhance marketing and find new customers: 60%
Establish/reinforce company’s position in community: 57%
*Among respondents who indicated they plan to focus on an area of corporate responsibility in 2023.
Business transitions and growth plans
Plans for business transfer
Yes, full transfer: 51%
Yes, partial transfer: 23%
Timeline to transfer business*
Within the next two years: 91%
Two or more years from now: 9%
*Among respondents who indicated they have a full or partial business transfer plan in place.
Growth strategies for the next 12 months
Introduce new products/services: 66%
Expand into new international markets: 58%
Expand into new distribution channels: 55%
Expand into new domestic markets: 50%
Make strategic partnerships/investments: 49%
About the survey
In its first year, the J.P. Morgan Business Leaders Outlook: India survey is a snapshot capturing the concerns and expectations of senior business leaders of midsize companies.
This year, 302 respondents completed the online survey between 21 November and 8 December, 2022. Results are within statistical parameters for validity; the error rate is plus or minus 5.7% at the 95% confidence interval.
Who took the survey
CEO/chairman/chairwoman: 30%
CFO: 26%
Other C-level: 21%
Owner/founder: 18%
Other: 4%
Company size by number of employees
1-49: 2%
50-99: 3%
100-249: 9%
250-499: 12%
500-999: 26%
1,000-4,999: 33%
5,000+: 15%
Company size by annual revenue
₹150 Cr - ₹800 Cr: 39%
₹800 Cr - ₹4,000 Cr: 31%
₹4,000 Cr - ₹8,000 Cr: 19%
₹8,000 Cr - ₹16,000 Cr: 12%
Company by industry
Government: 4%; healthcare: 6%; higher education: 4%; home services: 4%; industrials: 3%; manufacturing: 17%; media/entertainment/advertising: 2%; oil and gas: 2%; other professional/non-finance: 3%; real estate: 1%; restaurants/food services: 1%; technology: 39%; transportation/logistics: 1%; wholesale/retail: 8%; other: 5%
Note: Some numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Contributors
Kaustubh Kulkarni
Senior Country Officer, India and Vice Chair, Asia Pacific J.P. Morgan
Pranav Chawda
Head of Commercial Banking, India J.P. Morgan
Navin Wadhwani
Head of Investment Banking, India J.P. Morgan
Nitin Maheshwari
Head of M&A, India J.P. Morgan
Gautam Viswanathan
Head of M&A, India J.P. Morgan
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Visit jpmorgan.com/cb-disclaimer for disclosures and disclaimers related to this content.
