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Business Leaders Outlook

2023 Business Leaders Outlook: France

Despite inflation and increased energy costs, optimism about the economy is holding steady in France, our survey shows.


Business leaders across France are slightly less optimistic about the economy than they were a year ago, according to our 2023 Business Leaders Outlook survey. Nearly three in five (58%) have a positive outlook about the global economy; last year, 62% were optimistic.

Optimism around the national economy has fallen as well—to 56% from 60% last year. Notably, 53% of business leaders in France said they expect a recession in 2023. Compared with other countries surveyed at the same time, French leaders are less worried about a recession than their counterparts in the United Kingdom (69%), the United States (65%), India (61%) and Germany (59%), but more concerned than leaders in Australia (46%).

Inflation and increased energy costs continue to weigh on French businesses. And supply chain pressures haven’t eased either: 63% said it has gotten worse over the past 12 months to source materials and ship goods.

Despite these challenges, many leaders are still confident in their own companies. Nearly nine in 10 (89%) expect their revenues to increase or remain the same in 2023. 

 

Top takeaways

 

Pie chart showing 53%

Recession concerns

More than half of French business leaders believe a recession is likely in 2023.

Two horizontal bar charts showing 62% in 2022 and 58% in 2023

Views on economy

Leaders are slightly less optimistic about the global economy than they were
12 months ago.

Big number showing 72%

Workforce outlook

Despite their concerns about a recession, most leaders expect to add or keep staff.

 

 

Double ring pie chart showing 88% and 12%

Capital expenditures

Most businesses (88%) expect capital spending to grow or stay the same; only 12% believe it will drop.

Pie chart showing 63%

Supply chain 

Nearly two-thirds of leaders say supply chain pressures are worse than they were a year ago.

Two horizontal bar charts showing 68% in 2022 and 61% in 2023

Profit snapshot

While most leaders believe profits will rise, fewer believe so compared to last year’s expectations

     

 

 


Our experts

Kyril Courboin, Head of France, Senior Country Officer J.P. Morgan

Kyril Courboin
Head of France, Senior Country Officer
J.P. Morgan

Olivier Simon, Head of Commercial Banking, France and Benelux J.P. Morgan

Olivier Simon
Head of Commercial Banking, France and Benelux
J.P. Morgan

Arthur Brunschwig, Head of Commercial Banking, Treasury Management, France J.P. Morgan

Arthur Brunschwig
Head of Commercial Banking, Treasury Management, France
J.P. Morgan
 

Pierre Maman, Vice Chairman, Head of Debt Financing, EMEA, Commercial Banking J.P. Morgan

Pierre Maman
Vice Chairman, Head of Debt Financing, EMEA, Commercial Banking
J.P. Morgan

Maja Torun, Head of Investment Banking, France J.P. Morgan

Maja Torun
Head of Investment Banking, France
J.P. Morgan

Annabelle Azoulay, Head of Private Banking, France J.P. Morgan

Annabelle Azoulay
Head of Private Banking, France
J.P. Morgan
 

Vincent Juvyns, Global Market Strategist, Benelux, France and Geneva, Asset Management J.P. Morgan

Vincent Juvyns
Global Market Strategist, Benelux, France and Geneva, Asset Management
J.P. Morgan


 

Economic outlook and expectations

Slightly more than half of French business leaders are optimistic about the global, national and regional economies. But their optimism is much stronger for their own industries and companies.

Optimism dips slightly

The drop in optimism has been subtle. A year ago, three-fifths (60%) of business leaders were optimistic about the national economy. Today, 56% have a positive outlook.

Bullish on their own businesses

The vast majority of businesses (89%) expect their revenues to grow or hold steady in 2023. A similar amount (88%) expect their capital expenditures to increase or remain the same.


 

Election effects

Business leaders generally don’t expect many changes due to recent elections. 


 

Business challenges

French business leaders face a range of challenges today. Among them: persistent inflation, high energy prices, snarled supply chains and a shortage of available workers.


 

Social responsibility


 

Business transitions and growth plans


 

About the survey

Started in 2022, the J.P. Morgan Business Leaders Outlook: France survey is a snapshot capturing the concerns and expectations of senior business leaders whose companies have annual revenues between €20 million and €2 billion.

This year, 254 respondents completed the online survey between 21 November and 8 December, 2022. Results are within statistical parameters for validity; the error rate is plus or minus 6.2% at the 95% confidence interval.

Company by industry

Government: 4%; healthcare: 6%; home services: 4%; industrials: 7%; manufacturing: 24%; media/entertainment/advertising: 2%; nonprofit: 1%; oil and gas: 2%; other professional/non-finance: 3%; real estate: 2%; restaurants/food services: 3%; technology: 17%; transportation/logistics: 9%; wholesale/retail: 12%; other: 4%

Note: Some numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Visit jpmorgan.com/cb-disclaimer for disclosures and disclaimers related to this content.

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