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Business Leaders Outlook

2023 Business Leaders Outlook: Australia

Our survey shows leaders are cautiously optimistic about the economy—but nearly half expect a recession this year.

Business leaders across Australia are cautiously optimistic about the economy, according to our 2023 Business Leaders Outlook survey. More than half have a positive outlook about the global (59%) and national (59%) economies.

Still, 46% of Australian business leaders said they expect a recession in 2023. While sentiment about the likelihood of a recession is lower in Australia than in the United Kingdom (69%), the United States (65%), India (61%), Germany (59%) and France (53%), it represents a sizeable portion of business leaders.

Rising costs in general—and energy prices in particular—continue to weigh on Australian businesses. Two-thirds of the companies experiencing inflation said energy prices are their biggest challenge; next in line are the increased cost of capital (61%) and supply chain issues (60%).

Despite the inflationary challenges, the majority of leaders are confident in their own companies. A commanding 94% expect their revenues to increase or remain the same in 2023.


Top takeaways


Pie chart showing 46%

Recession concerns

Nearly half of business leaders in Australia believe a recession is likely in 2023.

Two horizontal bar charts showing 59% in 2023 and 63% in 2022

Views on economy

Companies are slightly less optimistic about the global economy than they were last year.

Pie chart showing 87%

Workforce outlook

Despite their sentiment about the economy, most leaders expect to add or keep staff.

Double ring pie chart showing 87% and 14%

Capital expenditures

Most businesses (87%) expect capital spending to grow or stay the same; only 14% believe it will drop.

Big number showing 40%

Supply chain

Four in 10 leaders say supply chain pressures are worse than they were a year ago.

Pie chart showing 74%

Profit snapshot

Most companies in Australia believe profits will rise in the next 12 months.



Our experts

Rob P. Bedwell, Head of Australia, Senior Country Officer

Robert Bedwell

Chief Executive Officer, Australia and New Zealand

J.P. Morgan

Annabelle Mooney, Head of Commercial Banking, Australia

Annabelle Mooney

Head of Commercial Banking, Australia and New Zealand

J.P. Morgan

Lindsay Atkinson, Head of Commercial Banking Treasury Management, Australia

Lindsay Atkinson

Head of Commercial Banking Treasury Management, Australia

J.P. Morgan

Oliver Bareau, Head of Private Banking, Australia

Oliver Bareau

Head of Private Banking, Australia

J.P. Morgan


Economic outlook and expectations

Australian business leaders are mostly optimistic about the global, national and regional economies. And their optimism carries over to how they feel about their own industries and companies.


Business challenges

Business leaders in Australia face a number of challenges today. Among them: persistent inflation, high energy prices, snarled supply chains and a shortage of available workers.


Social responsibility


Business transitions and growth plans


About the survey

Started in 2022, the J.P. Morgan Business Leaders Outlook: Australia survey is a snapshot capturing the concerns and expectations of senior business leaders whose companies have annual revenues between AU$20 million and AU$2 billion.

This year, 200 respondents completed the online survey between 21 November and 8 December 2022. Results are within statistical parameters for validity; the error rate is plus or minus 7.0% at the 95% confidence interval.

Company by industry

Government 3%; healthcare 7%; higher education 2%; home services 6%; industrials 7%; manufacturing 25%; media/entertainment/advertising 2%; nonprofit 1%; oil and gas 4%; other professional/non-finance 5%; real estate 2%; restaurants/food services 4%; technology 9%; transportation/logistics 4%; wholesale/retail 21%; other 2%

Note: Some numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Visit jpmorgan.com/cb-disclaimer for disclosures and disclaimers related to this content.

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