Join us for the J.P. Morgan Global China Summit 2025, Capital Connections, May 22-23 in Shanghai. This influential event will feature Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorganChase, and other distinguished business and economic leaders, including innovators in advanced AI and builders of breakthrough brands.
Last year’s summit marked 20 Years of Exchange and demonstrated that the demand to connect remains high, with over 2,700 international investor and corporate clients joining us from 33 countries and markets. We'll gather again to explore key topics impacting China and the global economy. As investment patterns shift and business strategies pivot, staying engaged is crucial, as markets evolve and make way for new opportunities. We look forward to welcoming you to this must-attend event in Shanghai.
Investors have had an unforgettable start to 2025, with tariffs, a stock market selloff felt in most major markets, followed by trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies. Tom Summersall, head of Asia-Ex Equity Sales, shares his view on current market conditions and what investors need to look out for.
We came into the year reasonably optimistic, with a strong narrative supporting U.S. exceptionalism that had been pervasive across markets for some time. After Liberation Day, investors’ ability to forecast, whether that's economics or company earnings has been compromised and the lens through which markets are viewed is cloudier. For pension funds or long-only asset managers that track an index, many will have adjusted to more defensive stocks or reduced beta. For non-fundamental investors, systematic, quant or momentum strategies, or even multimanager platforms and hedge funds, leverage was likely reduced. As a function of the lower volatility since then, some of these systematic strategies are now starting to increase their leverage again. Meanwhile, fundamental investors have been watching and waiting, but others such as momentum or trend-focused strategies have been triggered to start buying the market, so we have a tactical view that equities can move higher.
There are a lot of signs showing that China is focused on providing comprehensive policy support to boost its domestic economy, pivoting from an export-led, investment-focused economy to a more domestic consumption-driven model. Secondary home sales in major cities in China are up 11 percent. Historically, the property market has been an important sentiment indicator and onshore retail sales are up 10 percent year-on-year in some categories. Looking at industrial commodities like copper and aluminum, prices are also broadly moving higher. In terms of tariffs, we've gone through the initial shock – market participants are defensively positioned and will continue to be buffeted by headlines, but current talks with the U.S. administration look increasingly constructive. From an equity valuation standpoint, Asia is significantly cheaper than other parts of the world and represents an opportunity.
In China, there has been a regulatory push to incentivize economic activity and investment that started long before tariffs. Certain sectors such as consumer and education saw valuations come under sustained pressure over the past few years as a result of the ‘common prosperity’ directive and are now benefitting from supportive policy. The travel and transportation sectors, particularly in the U.S. are being closely followed, as they track broader economy activity. Tech is always a focus especially at the moment, given the structural tailwind from AI. When combined with geopolitical crosscurrents, this makes for a complex and potentially volatile, backdrop. We will be featuring humanoid robots again at this year’s conference, which is another emerging global trend.
We know that some of the Q1 economic data and company earnings look artificially strong as companies were pulling forward demand and shipping products ahead of the implementation of tariffs. The earlier expectation of payback in the second half has been somewhat tempered by the tariff delays and hopes of progress in talks. In the U.S. that’s led us to reduce our probability of recession to below 50%, although there remains an economic drag. The forward-looking sentiment data (such as company purchasing manager indices – PMIs) has shown signs of caution on behalf of companies given the heightened uncertainty. The question that remains is whether the hard data on delivered economic outcomes follows lower or whether the recent news flow on tariffs rescues confidence. First quarter company earnings and management commentary so far has tended to be more positive than the market expected. That’s good news for equity markets.
J.P. Morgan’s Global China Summit is one of the largest and most influential annual gatherings of business leaders in China.
J.P. Morgan’s Global China Summit is one of the largest and most influential annual gatherings of business leaders in China.
Text on screen:
J.P. Morgan global China summit - 20 years of exchange.
Logo:
J.P. Morgan.
Text on screen:
Over the past 20 years China’s GDP has grown from 2.3 trillion dollars to 17.7 trillion dollars. Share of global GDP has increased from 4.8% to 16.9%. Grown from the world's 4th largest economy to the 2nd largest economy.
Text on screen:
Twenty years of strengthening connections. The global China summit has bought together:
Over 33,000 participants;
Over 5000 companies and institutional investors;
(and) over 25,000 investor meetings.
Bringing China to the world.
On screen:
An aerial view show's the iconic great wall of china. Now,
photos appear, showing:
- zhu guangyao, vice minister of
finance, people's republic of China;
- Lou jiwei, former minister of finance,
people's republic of China;
- Zhou xiaochuan, governor, PBOC;
- Jane sun, CEO,
Ctrip;
- Joe Tsai, co-founder & chairman,
Alibaba group.
- Robin li, co-founder, chairman and ceo
baidu;
- Sonia Cheng, ceo,
rosewood hotel group;
- Ning gaoning, chairman, Sinochem;
- (and) stella li, executive vice
president of BYD, CEO of BYD Americas.
Text on screen:
Bringing the world to China.
On screen:
Photos appear, showing:
- Condoleezza Rice, 66th U.S. Secretary Of State, Director Of The Hover
Institution;
- Henry Kissinger, 56th U.S. Secretary
Of State, Chairman Of Kissinger Associates;
- Madeleine Albright, 64th U.S.
Secretary Of State,
- Ray Dalio, Founder,
Co-Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates;
- Ken Griffin, Founder And Ceo, Citadel;
- Özlem Türeci, Co-Founder And Chief
Medical Officer, Bontech.
- Laxman Narasimhan,
Ceo, Starbucks;
- Michelle Yeoh, Best Actress Oscar
2023, Producer And Director;
- Jeff Immlet, Chairman And Ceo, General
Electric.
- Daniel Pinto,
President And Chief Operating Officer, Jpmorgan Chase & Co.;
- Jamie Dimon, Chairman And Ceo,
Jpmorgan Chase & Co.;
- (And) Mary Erdoes, Ceo, Asset And
Wealth Management, Jpmorgan Chase & Co.
Text on screen:
20 years of thought leadership on the most relevant topics impacting china and the world.
A montage shows:
- A massive construction site;
- and icebergs in a still ocean.
Now, a series of headlines appear, reading:
- what's next for the world's 2nd
largest economy?
- China’s new economy gaining ground;
- embarking on China’s green chapter in
modern times;
- China’s solar boom fuels record growth
in global renewables;
- tapping into 30 trillion yuan
healthcare sector;
- China’s rapid advancements in ai;
- (and) China auto exports rank first in
the world – embracing electrification and autonomous driving.
A montage shows traffic speeding along highways in a metropolis.
Text on screen:
Growing with China. Invested in China. Celebrating 20 years of exchange.
Titles of the speakers presented herein were the titles held by the speakers at the time when they attended the global China summit in the past years.
The speakers may no longer hold the same titles, positions, or work for the same institutions or companies currently.
Please do not rely on and JPMC is not liable for the correctness and accuracy of the titles and positions of the speakers presented herein.
Copyright 2024 JPMorgan chase & co. All rights reserved.
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This conference is by invitation only and is not transferable. The conference is not open to the media.