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Outlook

June 2023 CPI report: Inflation comes in at just 3%

July 13, 2023

Annual inflation posted its smallest increase since March 2021.

Man shopping in a supermarket while on a budget. He is looking for low prices due to inflation, standing looking at his phone in front of a row of freezers. He is living in the North East of England.

By China Llanos

Key takeaways

The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 0.2% in June, double May’s increase.
For the trailing 12 months, the CPI came in at just 3%, the smallest annual increase since the period ending March 2021.
Core inflation, which excludes the highly volatile food and energy index components, rose 0.2% in June and 4.8% for the year.
Shelter was the primary driver of inflation in both all-items and core CPI.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its June 2023 CPI report¹ in advance of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting coming up on July 25–July 26. Overall, things are looking up. Madison Faller, Global Investment Strategist at J.P. Morgan, notes that, “This week’s U.S. CPI print showed that inflation angst is quickly fading away. The headline rate dropped over 100 basis points to 3% year-over-year, marking 12 straight months of declines and the coolest pace since March 2021.” This is apparent in the core measure (which excludes food and energy), which fell to 4.8%, unseen since October 2021.

Key drivers of inflation

Housing continues to serve as a tailwind to inflation. Shelter costs increased by another 0.4% in June, with the cost for the preceding 12 months up 7.8%. Rents rose half a percent in June. While persistently rising costs in this nondiscretionary expense category can be concerning, shelter tends to respond more slowly to Fed policy moves and prices may well come down toward the end of the year.

Car insurance has also contributed to higher inflation. The category was up 1.7% for the month and 16.9% for the trailing year. Filling up the tank also cost more in June. Gasoline prices rose 1% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis. The good news is that the category has fallen 26.5% for the trailing year, including the 5.6% drop seen in May.

The cost of food was up a modest 0.1% in June, driven by the cost of food away from home, which rose 0.4%. The price of food at home was flat for the month and only a third of the major food groups saw increases. Notably, the price of eggs, which had risen sharply following an outbreak of the bird flu² , has since come down, including a 7.3% drop in June.

The price of electricity ticked up 0.9%. The 18.6% decrease in the cost of natural gas over the past year offered welcome relief in the top level energy category.

Implications for the upcoming Fed meeting

This month’s CPI report shows inflation moving closer to the Fed’s long-term 2% target inflation rate. It has come a long way from the 9.1% peak in June 2022. Given housing is a lagging indicator and a key contributor to this month’s 0.2% increase in CPI, the central bank may feel encouraged that current data indicates their policy moves have taken effect.

The labor market has been a significant headwind to the Fed efforts to rein in inflation. The pandemic appears to have accelerated retirement for many in the age 55+ group³ , which has resulted in a shrunken labor pool. With many jobs chasing fewer people, wages have risen. However, the past year has seen a slowing rate of jobs growth amid a cooling demand for workers. A spate of layoffs have already occurred in the tech sector.

As CPI trends lower, the Fed may well see support for ending its tightening cycle sometime this year. The central bank previously indicated that the pause in rate increases at the last meeting would likely be followed by subsequent increases. Stephanie Roth, Senior Markets Economist at J.P. Morgan, points out that, “This is the third month in a row of a slowdown, increasing the odds the Fed is able to cut rates before seeing material economic weakness. Said differently, this should equate to a more mild growth slowdown than we had previously expected.” Given the recent CPI report, the question is whether the Fed will proceed with a rate hike this month. Another 25 basis point increase has been widely anticipated. Factors that may contribute to a more dovish tone to policy decisions include rising consumer debt, and possible reduced corporate spending amid higher interest rates. The possibility of a recession also still looms.

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References

Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index Summary.” (June 2023).

USDA, “Avian influenza outbreaks reduced egg production, driving prices to record highs in 2022.” (January 11, 2023).

J.P. Morgan Asset Management, “Economic and Market Update.” (June 2023).

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Key takeaways

Key drivers of inflation

Implications for the upcoming Fed meeting

Connect with a Wealth Advisor

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References

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