Indian equities have had a volatile year, with a period of correction toward the end of 2024, followed by significant pressure as U.S. tariffs and weak earnings weighed on sentiment. However, a strong policy push to revive domestic growth is set to ease inflation and fuel demand, boosting the outlook for India’s equity market.
The GST overhaul, which is the largest in eight years, follows other pro-growth policy measures announced this year, including tax cuts and monetary policy easing — the latter includes total repo rate cuts of 100 basis points (bp) and a Cash Reserve Ration (CRR) cut of 150 bp.
“Indian equities have experienced significant pressure over the past year, driven by disappointing corporate earnings, lackluster domestic consumption, higher valuations, adverse tariff outcomes and a weakening currency. However, the silver lining is that policymakers’ focus on reviving the domestic growth engine has been visible since the start of this year,” said Rajiv Batra, head of Asia and co-head of Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
India’s GST (Goods and Services Tax) Council is lowering tax rates from September 22 for essentials (5% or exempt) and aspirational products, such as premium food and beverage or high-end electronics (18%), while luxury goods and sectors such as alcohol and tobacco face a higher rate of 40%.
The incoming cuts are aimed at supporting consumption by lowering prices, enabling households to spend more on discretionary goods and services or increase financial investments.
“The positive momentum from GST 2.0 will partially help offset the adverse impact of U.S. tariffs in the coming quarters. While short-term uncertainties may keep markets range-bound in the near term, improving macro indicators and a strong earnings trajectory could set the stage for a rally from the second half of 2026 onward,” Batra said.