Contributors

Kriti Gupta

Executive Director, Global Investment Strategist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank

By: Kriti Gupta and Nick Roberts

Markets seem positioned for a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That’s clear in energy prices, rates and the concentration of equity leadership. But if the path shifts – even marginally – toward de‑escalation, the adjustment could be swift and underappreciated. A lower oil price directly feeds into falling yields, easier financial conditions and a short-term rotation into parts of the market that investors have largely ignored.

The all-clear signal

It’s become a familiar pattern: An Iran-related headline crosses the wire. Oil prices spike. Inflation fears resurface. Interest rates drift higher. And investors crowd into the same trades – energy, defensive assets and mega-cap growth stocks. Part of the bid is grounded in fundamentals, but some of it is increasingly momentum-driven – and that’s when the narrative starts to stretch.

Investors are pricing in persistence: Persistent geopolitical risk. Persistent inflation pressure. Persistent concentration in equity leadership. That view rests on one key assumption – that the current shock lasts. What if it doesn’t?

And what does an all-clear sign look like in a world that’s bracing for further impact?

Hopes of a peace deal continue to grow as more Washington officials and their international partners take a more active role in negotiation and mediation efforts. On the surface, it seems to be yielding some progress. While agreement on key issues like nuclear enrichment remains distant, it may not matter for investors trying to price a resolution. The green light is tied to the number of ships making their way through the Strait of Hormuz and restoring global trade flows.

A plausible near-term path could involve a temporary extension of ceasefire conditions alongside a gradual resumption of transit. That would matter quickly. Over 100 million barrels remain effectively trapped in the region, which could re-enter global markets in short order. Expectations of that eventuality are already seeping into niche markets.

This line chart shows the cost to ship goods from the Middle East to China, measured in U.S. dollars per metric tonne, from October 2025 through May 2026.

The feedback loop

A gradual reopening of transit routes could bring oil prices lower. But it could also go further than that and compress the geopolitical premium embedded across financial markets, ease physical shortages and shift the macro narrative in a way that investors may not yet be positioned for.

One-fifth of global oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When flows are disrupted, energy markets react immediately. But when supply resumes, prices can normalize just as quickly. And that has ripple effects, namely in the bond market. The transmission mechanism is straightforward: Energy prices feed into inflation, inflation expectations feed into policy odds and policy expectations affect bond yields.

This bar chart shows the year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index broken down by four components: core goods, core services, food, and energy, from 2018 to 2026.

An unwind in the oil price can push bond yields lower globally as investors re-evaluate the need for interest rate hikes. It could alleviate pressure on supply chains ­– an increasingly acute problem – and decrease input costs on the most energy-intensive industries. This could in turn catalyze a rotation back into some of the lagging corners of the equity market, prompting a sudden shift in stock market leadership – at least temporarily.

This isn’t unprecedented. Markets often overshoot on both sides – pricing worst-case scenarios first, then unwinding them once reality proves more stable than feared.

Bracing for rotation

While the blistering rally in the S&P 500 continues, under the hood, the gains remain concentrated in trades related to artificial intelligence (AI). Semiconductors, memory and computer stocks continue to drive returns, with some parts of the market trading at levels near double where they were at the start of the year, creating a wide dispersion in performance within the stock market.

This line chart shows year-to-date price returns for two groups: AI data center beneficiaries and the S&P 500 excluding AI stocks.

In many parts of the AI buildout, demand continues to outstrip supply. Take a look at earnings growth. S&P 500 earnings estimates in the first quarter stood at around 13% on a quarterly basis at the start of the reporting season. Corporate earnings not only beat those estimates but jumped to over 28%. Excluding one-time gains, the figure is nearly 20%. Even software – the sector that’s perhaps seen the most disruption – didn’t post any negative revisions. In fact, it was revised higher despite the first-quarter volatility.

Setting itself apart from the technological boom at the start of the century, this is not the late 1990s – earnings are real and they’re accelerating sharply. But with the outperformance of momentum sectors, which are posting some of the most powerful rallies seen over the past 15 years, comes crowded trades. 

What’s unloved?

Cyclical sectors like financials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and real estate investment trusts (REITs) remain relatively muted. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ensuing decline in both the oil price and bond yields could shift flows toward these segments, at least in the short term, while resetting capital flows that have been all in on the AI trade. Cue the rotation.

It’s a similar picture internationally. European equities have underperformed while experiencing the greatest term of trade shock and stand to benefit from a short-term rotation – especially in sectors most exposed to the energy disruption, like airlines and retail. The change could even benefit banks and miners in the short term.

Investors are bracing for more of the same. But the de-escalation trade is ultimately about rotation. If the shock fades, the unwind could be as swift as the initial pricing of risk – before markets settle back into their longer-term trends.

All market and economic data as of 05/29/2026 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

Connect with a Wealth Advisor

Reach out to your Wealth Advisor to discuss any considerations for your current portfolio. If you don’t have a Wealth Advisor, click here to tell us about your needs and we’ll reach out to you.

Connect now

Important Information

Index definitions:

The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged broad-based index that is used as representation of the U.S. stock market. It includes 500 widely held common stocks. Total return figures reflect the reinvestment of dividends. “S&P500” is a trademark of Standard and Poor’s Corporation.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the author's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.

Any companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., its affiliates, and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Information presented on these webpages is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for tax, legal and accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transaction.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS 

  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
  • The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Share values can rise with strong earnings or positive market expectations, but they can also fall due to weak earnings or negative sentiment, and dividends are not guaranteed.
  • Investing in fixed income products (such as bonds) is subject to certain risks, including, but not limited to, interest rate, credit, inflation, call, default, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.
  • Investors should carefully read the prospectus or other offering documents which include information on the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses along with other information about the fund before investing.
  • Investors should understand the potential tax liabilities surrounding a municipal bond purchase. Certain municipal bonds are federally taxed if the holder is subject to alternative minimum tax. Capital gains, if any, are federally taxable. The investor should note that the income from tax-free municipal bond funds may be subject to state and local taxation and the alternative minimum tax (AMT).
  • International investments may not be suitable for all investors. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Some international markets may not be politically or economically stable. Foreign holdings are subject to currency risk, as fluctuations in exchange rates between the investment’s foreign currency and the holder’s domestic currency can affect the value of the investment.           
  • Investing in emerging markets involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility compared to developed markets. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the investor’s jurisdiction can raise or lower returns. Some markets may not be as politically and economically stable, in addition to differences in taxation policies, and legal systems outside the investor’s jurisdiction may create additional risks. Investors should carefully consider these risks and consult with financial and legal advisors before investing in emerging markets.
  • Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage. The value of commodity-linked derivative instruments may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Use of leveraged commodity-linked derivatives creates an opportunity for increased return but, at the same time, creates the possibility for greater loss.     
  • Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are subject to risks such as fluctuations in property values and changes in economic conditions. Additionally, REITs may face risks from interest rate changes, regulatory shifts, and limited diversification if concentrated in specific sectors or geographic areas.
  • Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments, including, without limitation, limited liquidity and valuation risk, and is suitable only for investors with sufficient knowledge and sophistication to evaluate the merits and risks of such investments. Alternative investments should not be deemed a complete investment program and distributions are not guaranteed. They may not be tax efficient, and an investor should consult with their tax professional prior to investing. Alternative investments often have higher fees than traditional investments and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the investment loss or gain--including risk of loss of the entire investment. For comprehensive details around unique set of risks for specific alternative investments, please consult the offering memorandum.
  • Structured product involves derivatives and intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing to bear the high economic risks of the investment. The most common risks include, but are not limited to, risk of adverse or unanticipated market developments, issuer credit quality risk, risk of lack of uniform standard pricing, risk of adverse events involving any underlying reference obligations, risk of high volatility, risk of illiquidity/little to no secondary market, and conflicts of interest. Any payments on a structured product are subject to the credit risk of the issuer and/or guarantor. Investors may lose their entire investment, i.e., incur an unlimited loss. Before investing in a structured product, investors should review the accompanying offering document, prospectus or prospectus supplement to understand the actual terms and key risks associated with each individual structured product. For a more comprehensive list of the risks involved with a particular product, please refer to the relevant risk disclosure booklet or speak to your J.P. Morgan team.  If you are in any doubt about the risks involved in the product, you may clarify with the intermediary or seek independent professional advice.
  • Private investment funds (including, without limitation, hedge funds, funds of hedge funds, private equity funds, real estate funds, etc.) are subject to special risks, including risk of loss of the entire investment and is suitable only for investors with sufficient knowledge and sophistication to evaluate the merits and risks of such investments. As a reminder, private investment funds often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. These investments can be highly illiquid, and may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, and may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. Distributions are not guaranteed and may be modified at the Fund Board’s discretion. These investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees (performance fees in addition to management fees). Further, any number of conflicts of interest may exist in the context of the management and/or operation of any such fund. For comprehensive details around unique set of risks for specific alternative investments, please refer to the applicable offering memorandum.
  • Investments in digital assets and cryptocurrencies, or other investment vehicles holding or referencing digital assets, are highly speculative and involve significant risks, including, but not limited to, increased volatility, ongoing regulatory uncertainty including lack of clear precedent in various jurisdictions surrounding digital assets, cybersecurity risk relating to digital asset holdings, and increased sensitivity to news, speculation and manipulation. Likewise, various digital assets may differ from one another in their technological characteristics, regulatory treatment, market convention and performance. There is limited data on the performance of digital assets and products referencing digital assets (although in no case should historical performance be taken as an indication of future performance). You should consider these unique characteristics and whether these assets are suitable for you when making an investment decision.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

This material is for information purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by J.P. Morgan’s wealth management businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). The views and strategies described in the material may not be suitable for all investors and are subject to investment risks. Please read all Important Information.

GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS. Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

NON-RELIANCECertain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

LEGAL ENTITY, BRAND & REGULATORY INFORMATION

In the United States, bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states. 

Bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

This document may provide information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”). The agreements entered into with JPMS, and corresponding disclosures provided with respect to the different products and services provided by JPMS (including our Form ADV disclosure brochure, if and when applicable), contain important information about the capacity in which we will be acting. You should read them all carefully. We encourage clients to speak to their JPMS representative regarding the nature of the products and services and to ask any questions they may have about the difference between brokerage and investment advisory services, including the obligation to disclose conflicts of interests and to act in the best interests of our clients.

J.P. Morgan may hold a position for itself or our other clients which may not be consistent with the information, opinions, estimates, investment strategies or views expressed in this document. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates may hold a position or act as market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or act as an underwriter, placement agent, advisor or lender to such issuer. 

Check the background of our firm and investment professionals on FINRA's BrokerCheck

To learn more about J. P. Morgan Wealth Management’s investment business, including our accounts, products and services, as well as our relationship with you, please review our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Form CRS and Guide to Investment Services and Brokerage Products.

This website is for informational purposes only, and not an offer, recommendation or solicitation of any product, strategy service or transaction. Any views, strategies or products discussed on this site may not be appropriate or suitable for all individuals and are subject to risks. Prior to making any investment or financial decisions, an investor should seek individualized advice from a personal financial, legal, tax and other professional advisors that take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of an investor's own situation. 

This website may provide information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"). When JPMS acts as a broker-dealer, a client's relationship with us and our duties to the client will be different in some important ways than a client's relationship with us and our duties to the client when we are acting as an investment advisor. A client should carefully read the agreements and disclosures received (including our Form ADV disclosure brochure, if and when applicable) in connection with our provision of services for important information about the capacity in which we will be acting.

INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE:
• NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

Please read additional Important Information in conjunction with these pages.