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By Jacob Manoukian

U.S. Head of Investment Strategy

By Paul Jacobson

Municipal Credit Analyst, J.P. Morgan

By Jacob Manoukian , Paul Jacobson

Our Top Market Takeaways for February 24, 2023

Market update: What’s so good about 5%

The big story in markets the last few weeks is that investors think that policy rates in the United States will stay higher for longer. After a string of strong economic data to start the year, the market thinks short rates will be almost 5.4% by the end of the year, up from 4.5% in January.

As a result, this week, for the first time in over 15 years, the one year Treasury bills’ yield is over 5%. 

This line chart shows the one-year Treasury bill from December 1990 to February 2023.

This line chart shows the one-year Treasury bill from December 1990 to February 2023. The series starts with a yield of 6.8% before falling in the early 1990s to a bottom of 3.0% in October 1992. From here, the one-year yields jump to a series high of 7.3% in January 1995, before dropping back to fluctuate between 5% and 6% until 2001, where yields fall sharply to 0.9% by June 2003. They then increase to 5.3% in July 2006 before falling through the global financial crisis to as low at 0.1% between 2011 and 2014. After this, yields ticked up to 2.8% in November 2018 before dropping back to near 0% levels in 2020 and 2021. Since then, the one-year Treasury bill yield has been rising to today’s levels of 5.1%.

This line chart shows the one-year Treasury bill from December 1990 to February 2023.

Earning 5% to lend money to the U.S. government seems tough to beat. But as we recently argued, investors should be mindful of what they might be missing when they keep too much capital in T-bills.

Despite the uncertainties, many different markets, assets and securities have outperformed the 0.59% return that cash has generated so far. Here are just a few examples.

A global 60/40 portfolio is up +3.4% and the MSCI All Country World equity index is up +5.2%. 35 of the 48 countries within that universe that we track have outperformed cash, headlined by Mexico (+16.8%), France (+12.2%), Taiwan (+11.6%), China (+4.7%) and the U.S. (+4.8%).

Even after the recent sell-off, the S&P 500 is up +4.8%. 306 of the individual equities that make up the index are beating cash, headlined by Nvidia (+61.9%), Meta (+43.0%), United Rentals (+26.1%), Disney (+17.1%) and Costco (+8.2%).

The Nasdaq 100 is up +11.5%. U.S. mid cap equities are up +7.8%. Small caps are up +8.5%.

European banks are up +19.3%. LVMH is up +19.0%. Preferred equities are up +7.0%.

Even high yield bonds (+0.8%), who have given up most of their year to date gains, are beating cash.

A 5% yield on Treasury bills pays investors to wait. But it isn’t the insurmountable hurdle that many are making it out to be. There are plenty of opportunities to get excited about if you know where to look. 

This bar chart shows the total return of assets year to date (in local currency, %).

This bar chart shows the total return of assets year to date (in local currency, %). Europe has gained 9.1%. EAFE 7.1% World 5.7%. U.S. 4.8%. Japan 4.5%. Asia ex-Japan 3.7%. EM Equity 3.6%. U.S. Corporate HY 2.2%. EM Debt 1.0%. U.S. Agg Bonds 0.7%. USD Cash 0.6%. U.S. Treasury 0.4%. Gold -0.1%. Commodities -5.4%.

The assets are also colored based on asset class—equities, fixed income, commodities, cash. Equities led the pack, and included Europe, EAFE, World, U.S. EM Equity, Asia ex-Japan, Japan. Fixed income includes U.S. corporate HY, EM Debt, U.S. Agg bonds, and U.S. Treasury. Cash is just USD cash. And Commodities are gold and commodities.

This bar chart shows the total return of assets year to date (in local currency, %).

Spotlight: Buying the dip in municipal bonds

Last week, we asked when the municipal bond market might get to a point where it gets attractive to U.S. taxpayers again. This week, we explain why we think now is the time to consider buying the dip in municipal bonds.

The strong start to the year for fixed income was too good to be true. Investment grade municipal bonds have pared most of their close to 3% rally to start the year after hotter-than-anticipated inflation and employment data forced investors to reassess the path of Federal Reserve policy. Now that investors are expecting policy rates to go higher and stay there longer, investment grade and high yield municipal bond indices have dropped by 2.3% and 3.4%, respectively.

Investors are starting to lose some faith. Prior to February 9th, municipal bond funds saw 26 consecutive days of inflows. Since that time, they have experienced outflows on six out of the last eight days. While a 3% sell-off may not seem like much to equity investors, this is a pretty material unravelling in the municipal bond space.

The good news is that we think this sell-off is giving U.S. taxpayers a good opportunity to pick up some yield, especially in shorter-term bonds. In January, yields on short term municipal bonds were so low that they failed to beat similar Treasury bills on an after-tax basis. But now, after the sell-off, there are many parts of the market that can.

In fact, the municipal SIFMA index, which measures the yields on 7-day tax exempt securities, has surged to 3.4% and nearly hit 4% just last week. Almost incredibly, this is comparable to the yield on the 20-year municipal bond index. Indeed, many parts of the municipal yield curve are inverted. This is historically rare, and is another indicator of the potential value in short-term municipal bonds.

This line chart shows the yield-to-worst for 7-day tax exempt securities and 20-year municipal bonds from March 2022 to February 2023.

This line chart shows the yield-to-worst for 7-day tax exempt securities and 20-year municipal bonds from March 2022 to February 2023.

The 7-day tax exempt securities yield starts at 0.2% and rises steadily to 2.5% in September 2022. The yield then falls slightly to 1.9% in November 2022 before sharply rising to 3.8% a month later, falling back to 1.7% by late January 2023 and then increasing again to finish the series at 3.4%.

The 20-year municipal bond begins at 2.2% on March 2022 and rises to 4.0% in May 2022. From here, it dips slightly before rising to 4.8% in November 2022 and has since fallen to 4.0% where it ended the series.

This line chart shows the yield-to-worst for 7-day tax exempt securities and 20-year municipal bonds from March 2022 to February 2023.

As the Federal Reserve reaches the end of its rate hiking cycle and inflation continues its bumpy decline, we expect longer-duration core bonds to outperform short-term ones (either municipal, federal or corporate). But short-term municipal bonds may look attractive for capital that is earmarked for liquidity and yield in the near term.

Please reach out to your J.P. Morgan team for the latest opportunities that we see.

DISCLOSURES

All market and economic data as of February 24, 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.

The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.

Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.

The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to 'stock market risk' meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.


IMPORTANT INFORMATION

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Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.​ Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss. ​

This material is for information purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by J.P. Morgan’s wealth management businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). The views and strategies described in the material may not be suitable for all investors and are subject to investment risks. Please read all Important Information.

  • The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS. Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

NON-RELIANCE. Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

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J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

Please read additional Important Information in conjunction with these pages.

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