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An aerial shot of four students and their teacher wearing warm outdoor clothing on an overcast day in Northumberland. They are on a field trip and are crossing a river by walking over stepping stones. Video also available of this scenario

By Madison Faller

Global Investment Strategist

By Madison Faller

Our Top Market Takeaways for November 3, 2023

Sweet relief. Heading into Friday morning, the S&P 500 U-turned from its recent sell-off and is now on track for its best week of 2023. Bond yields, especially on the longer end, have fallen dramatically. That’s propelled U.S. Treasuries to one of their best weeks of the year. Both 10-year and 30-year yields have fallen roughly 40 basis points from their highs just a few weeks ago. Even U.S. high yield bonds showed up to the rally, with spreads tightening on Thursday by the most since February.

So as we barrel toward the end of the year, are markets finally finding direction?

This week has been jampacked with big-picture catalysts – from a flurry of central bank meetings to a handful of economic data prints, to a new sense of the government debt situation – and each seems to have brought a clearer sense of the path forward.

Here is what we learned, and why we think it may bring more comfort for investors:

1. Pretty much every major central bank has said they’re done hiking (just without actually saying they’re done hiking).

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England all kept policy rates unchanged at their latest meetings. Only the Bank of Japan is left holding on to an easier policy stance, and still, it’s slowly shifting toward tightening.

The line graph shows the historical and implied policy rates across 4 central banks: the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan.

Central bank policy rates and market-implied expectations, percentage

The chart is a line graph of the historical and implied policy rates across four central banks: the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan.

The U.S. policy rate starts at 0.25% on December 31, 2014, and trends upward to 2.5% on December 31, 2018.

The first data point for all three starts in December 2015 when the Federal Reserve’s policy rate was 0.25%, the BoE’s policy rate was 0.5%, the ECB’s policy rate was -0.2%, and the BoJ’s policy rate was 0.1%. 

From December 2016 to December 2018, the Fed began raising interest rates, eventually reaching a level of 2.5%. During the same time period, the BoE raised and held rates at a level of 0.75%. In July 2019, the Fed began cutting rates from 2.5% before eventually stopping at a level of 0.25% in March 2020. The Fed began rapidly raising its policy rate slightly after the BoE in March 2022, reaching 3.25% in September 2023, and eventually touching a level of 5.5% as of October 30, 2023.

In February of 2016, the BoJ lowered its policy rate to -0.1%, the ECB lowered its rate to -0.4 while there was no change to the Fed (0.5%) and BoE (0.5%) policy rates. Since cutting rates in 2016, the ECB left policy rates unchanged at -0.4%, and the BoJ has left their policy rate unchanged at -0.1% all the way until present day (October 30, 2023). Starting in June 2022 the ECB hiked its policy rate to 4.0% by October 2023. During both time periods the BoJ has kept their policy rate unchanged at a level of -0.1%.

In August 2016, the BoE lowered its policy rate to 0.25%, while there was no change to the Fed (0.5%), ECB (-0.4%) and BoJ (-0.1) policy rates. The BoE also cut their policy rate in March 2020 to a level of 0.1%, while the BoJ and ECB left their policy unchanged during this time at -0.1% and -0.4% respectively. In December 2021, BoE began rapidly increasing rates reaching 3% in November 2022, to their current level of 5.25% as of October 30, 2023.

Implied future rate for the Fed lands at 4.8% by November 2024, 4.9% by September 2024 for the BOE, 3.2% for the ECB by October 2024, and 0.2% by September 2024 for the BOJ.

The line graph shows the historical and implied policy rates across 4 central banks: the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan.

After months of questioning when the end would come, and even one “skip” meeting followed by a hike thereafter, conviction that the Fed is actually done with hikes is growing. Markets are pricing in just a ~30% chance of one more hike. If it comes at all, investors are betting on it happening in January. By then, policymakers should have an even clearer read on the economy, and this month’s data has pointed to more cooling.

Why it matters: When the Fed has officially hiked its last time in the past, that’s tended to provide a runway for markets to rally. In the last seven Fed hiking cycles, U.S. stocks and investment-grade bonds meaningfully outperformed cash – by 19% and 14%, respectively – over the following two years.

2. The economy is slowing a bit, and that’s not a bad thing.

So far, inflation has cooled without much economic pain. As we noted last week Q3’s U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) print was a case in point for how resilient growth has been.

But from here, growth probably needs to slow down a little to ensure that inflation doesn’t reaccelerate (and prompt more moves from central banks). This week, from manufacturing and services reads to labor market data (see the cooldown in hiring in today’s jobs report), signs have pointed to some fading momentum. CEOs have echoed the same this earnings season, with more notes of dampening demand and shifts in spending patterns (even as the overall trend is still a solid one).

In more good news for a potential soft landing, word also came that the economy might be getting more “productive.” In other words, it’s using all the resources it has – from all its workers and its capital to its technological investments – more efficiently than it used to. The latest read on U.S. productivity, measured by how much employees are producing per hour, advanced by the most in three years. Meanwhile, unit labor costs, or how much a business pays its workers to produce one unit of whatever it’s producing, fell last quarter – its first decline since 2022. Taken together, this means inflation may be able to keep cooling while the economy avoids a meaningful contraction.

3. The Treasury plans to borrow less than expected next quarter.

Bond yields surged over the summer in part as the Treasury said it was going to have to issue more debt to help fund the government’s spending. All else equal, more Treasury supply puts downward pressure on prices and upward pressure on yields.

Fast forward to this week: In its latest update, the Treasury said it plans to borrow less than it anticipated in Q4, and it also intends to issue less longer-dated bonds than expected to get its job done. That shift may make it easier for the market to digest the added supply.

While we still need to see how buyers will take on this latest round of supply, this week’s news signals that bond markets might be faced with less volatility ahead.

Markets hate uncertainty, and they thrive on clarity.

In all, a better sense of the path forward offers more runway to rally.

It’s a bond buyer’s market with interest rates at today’s levels. One of the most popular measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve (i.e., the difference between 2-year and 10-year bond yields) has moved from about 100 bps of inversion in July to about 30 bps today. For investors, this means that you don’t need to give up nearly as much yield to extend duration. Across the maturities, risk spectrums and issuer types, investors have the opportunity to buy bonds at yields we haven’t seen in 15 years. For U.S. taxpayers, we think municipal bonds look especially compelling, offering the potential for an even greater pickup in yield, low default risk and an attractive entry point with seasonal supply trends. To echo our earlier point and add potential urgency, yields have a habit of falling (and prices rising) after the Fed is done raising interest rates.

This line graph shows the 10-year Treasury yield since the start of 2023.

10-year U.S. Treasury yield, percentage

The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield since the start of 2023.

  • The yield starts at 3.87% on January 2, 2023.
  • The yield trends downward to 3.37% on January 18, 2023.
  • Then the yield trends upward to 4.06% on March 2, 2023.
  • Then the yield trends downward to 3.31% on April 6, 2023.
  • Then the yield trends upward to 4.03% on July 6, 2023.
  • The yield continues to trend upward to 4.99% on October 19, 2023.
  • The yield finishes at 4.68% on November 2, 2023.

The labels and associated dates and yields (taken from the day prior to the event) are:

  • February FOMC Meeting: February 1, 3.42%
  • U.S. regional banking crisis: March 8, 3.96%
  • May FOMC meeting kickstarts “higher for longer” speculation: May 3, 3.57%
  • Bank of Japan loosens its yield curve control policy: July 28, 3.87%
  • Fitch downgrades U.S. government credit rating: August 1, 3.96%
  • U.S. Treasury ramps up issuance: August 2, 4.02%
  • September FOMC meeting: September 20, 4.36%
  • Israel-Hamas conflict: October 7, 4.72%
  • November FOMC meeting and Treasury refunding announcement: November 1, 4.83%
This line graph shows the 10-year Treasury yield since the start of 2023.

We think now offers an entry point for U.S. stocks. Even after this week’s rally, stocks are still pricing in a lot of bad stuff. Roughly 70% of S&P 500 stocks are in correction territory (or down 10% or more from their 52-week highs), and broadly, valuations are about back in line with long-term averages. Seasonality could also prove favorable: Going back to 1950, November and December are usually two of the best months of the year. Finally, with more stability in bond yields, investors can soon refocus on fundamentals. Earnings are having a transition quarter, and expectations from here point to future growth. That’s especially true for tech+, where improving earnings and the power of artificial intelligence (AI) combine to create a compelling case.

This bar graph shows the S&P 500 earnings per share growth, year-over-year as a percentage.

S&P 500 earnings per share growth, year-over-year percentage

The chart shows the S&P 500 earnings per share growth, year-over-year as a percentage with Q3 2023 on being consensus expectations.

  • In Q1 2019, earnings growth was 0.2%
  • In Q2 2019, earnings growth was 1.2%
  • In Q3 2019, earnings growth was -1.6%
  • In Q4 2019, earnings growth was 1.0%
  • In Q1 2020, earnings growth was -14.1%
  • In Q2 2020, earnings growth was -32.2%
  • In Q3 2020, earnings growth was -6.7%
  • In Q4 2020, earnings growth was 1.2%
  • In Q1 2021, earnings growth was 47%
  • In Q2 2021, earnings growth was 86.9%
  • In Q3 2021, earnings growth was 36.7%
  • In Q4 2021, earnings growth was 30.9%
  • In Q1 2022, earnings growth was 10.3%
  • In Q2 2022, earnings growth was 7.4%
  • In Q3 2022, earnings growth was 3.3%
  • In Q4 2022, earnings growth was -3.4%
  • In Q1 2023, earnings growth was -1.4%
  • In Q2 2023, earnings growth was -3.8%
  • For Q3 2023, expected earnings growth is 3.7%
  • For Q4 2023, expected earnings growth is 3.9%
  • For Q1 2024, expected earnings growth is 7.2%
  • For Q2 2024, expected earnings growth is 10.8%
  • For Q3 2024, expected earnings growth is 10.1%
  • For Q4 2024, expected earnings growth is 16.4%
  • Expected Q2 2023, EPS Contraction:-3.8%
  • Expected Q3 2023, EPS Growth: +3.7%
This bar graph shows the S&P 500 earnings per share growth, year-over-year as a percentage.

Finally, if we’re wrong, alternatives can be a powerful force in portfolios beyond diversification. For example, infrastructure and real assets can offer protection if inflation lingers (or, in a worst case, reaccelerates). Private credit can benefit in an environment with higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions, and experienced managers can capitalize on stress in commercial real estate.

In all, we see opportunity in a world in transition.

Your J.P. Morgan team is here to discuss what it means for you and the opportunities we see ahead.

All market data from FactSet and Bloomberg Finance L.P., 11/03/23.

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Small capitalization companies typically carry more risk than well-established "blue-chip" companies since smaller companies can carry a higher degree of market volatility than most large cap and/or blue-chip companies.

International investments may not be suitable for all investors. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the United States and other nations. Investments in international markets can be more volatile.

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Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise. 

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All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.

Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise. 

Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.  

Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. Alternative investments involve greater risks than traditional investments and should not be deemed a complete investment program. They are not tax efficient and an investor should consult with his/her tax advisor prior to investing. Alternative investments have higher fees than traditional investments and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. The value of the investment may fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than they invested. 

Investors should understand the potential tax liabilities surrounding a municipal bond purchase. Certain municipal bonds are federally taxed if the holder is subject to alternative minimum tax. Capital gains, if any, are federally taxable. The investor should note that the income from tax-free municipal bond funds may be subject to state and local taxation and the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT).

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  • The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

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