The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) October 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed cooling headline inflation.1

“As expected, year-on-year headline inflation fell from 3.7% in September to 3.2% in October on the back of a 2.5% decline in energy prices,” said Shawn Snyder, Global Investment Strategist for J.P. Morgan Wealth Management. “Gasoline prices dropped by 5% during the month, providing the consumer some needed relief.”

Core inflation, which strips out the highly volatile food and energy components, was 0.2% higher in October after rising 0.3% in September. Core inflation “remained more sticky with the year-on-year percent change falling from 4.1% to 4.0% in October,” Snyder said. “Shelter prices, which are one of the largest components of core inflation, remained elevated at 6.7% year-on-year, but they have been gradually declining. We expect that trend to continue for some time.”

Key components

The moderation in inflation was attributed to several key factors. Most notably, oil prices have witnessed a clear decline from their late September peaks. Furthermore, inflation for used cars and trucks also showed price declines month-over-month. The most significant price level increases were in housing and food away from home.

The broader energy index fell by 2.5% over the month, largely due to a 5% decline in the gasoline index, even though other energy component indexes experienced increases. Other indexes that decreased in October included lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, communication, and airline fares.2 This stabilization is critical, as it should take some pressure off policymakers and consumers.

Food inflation, a critical component of CPI, saw a modest increase of 0.3% in October, slightly higher than the 0.2% rise in September. Breaking this down further, the index for food at home increased by 0.3%, while the index for food away from home rose by 0.4%, indicating a consistent upward trend in food prices, albeit at a slower pace.3

How sticky will the current level of inflation prove to be?

“It might be surprising, but inflation excluding shelter prices is now up just 1.5% year-on-year,” said Snyder. “Excluding food, energy and shelter prices, inflation is now just 2% higher year-on-year. While it is likely still too early for the Federal Reserve to declare victory against inflation outright, inflation appears to be trending in the right direction and that should keep additional rate hikes off the table.”

Overall, inflation has been trending down. “The key question moving forward is whether this downtrend in inflation will be accompanied by slowing economic growth,” said Snyder. “Early indicators seem to suggest that growth will moderate towards the end of the year and into early 2024.”

Next Fed steps?

The Fed continues to face the challenge of managing inflation without exacerbating a potential economic downturn.

“In general, we think the Fed will see the risks of sticky inflation and slower growth as fairly balanced and will decide to remain on pause for the indefinite future as restrictive rates do their work,” said Snyder.

The next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 12–13.



Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index Summary” (November 14, 2023).




Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category” (November 14, 2023)

Connect with a Wealth Advisor

Our Wealth Advisors begin by getting to know you personally. To get started, tell us about your needs and we’ll reach out to you.

Connect now


This material is for informational purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by J.P. Morgan’s wealth management businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). Products and services described, as well as associated fees, charges and interest rates, are subject to change in accordance with the applicable account agreements and may differ among geographic locations. Not all products and services are offered at all locations. If you are a person with a disability and need additional support accessing this material, please contact your J.P. Morgan team or email us at for assistance. Please read all Important Information.

Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan representative.

NON-RELIANCECertain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

Legal Entity and Regulatory Information.

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

Bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

This document may provide information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”). The agreements entered into with JPMS, and corresponding disclosures provided with respect to the different products and services provided by JPMS (including our Form ADV disclosure brochure, if and when applicable), contain important information about the capacity in which we will be acting. You should read them all carefully. We encourage clients to speak to their JPMS representative regarding the nature of the products and services and to ask any questions they may have about the difference between brokerage and investment advisory services, including the obligation to disclose conflicts of interests and to act in the best interests of our clients.

J.P. Morgan may hold a position for itself or our other clients which may not be consistent with the information, opinions, estimates, investment strategies or views expressed in this document.  JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates may hold a position or act as market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or act as an underwriter, placement agent, advisor or lender to such issuer.