Sarah Stillpass
Global Investment Strategist
Alan Wynne
Global Investment Strategist
Last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting was the event of the year for economists, investors, and market enthusiasts alike. But just like other high-profile functions throughout the year, the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting had a bit of an after-party this week. Investors were treated to key headlines, market moves and macroeconomic releases across the globe that gave us confidence that diversified investment portfolios could continue to deliver strong performance. Here are some highlights:
In this edition of Top Market Takeaways, we are giving you the skinny on three learnings beyond the Fed and what they may mean for your portfolio.
1. The housing market may have started to find its footing. While interest rate cuts can theoretically have broad and immediate impacts, bond markets were already expecting a big shift in policy. That means that even though the Fed has officially kicked off the rate-cutting cycle, mortgage rates have been falling for five months. In fact, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined for the eighth straight week, marking its longest downtrend since 2019. The rate for a 30-year mortgage is about 6%. That’s more than a full percentage point lower than its most recent peak in May, and well below the 2023 peak when rates approached 8%.
The MBA’s refinancing index, while still depressed, jumped by 20% week-over-week, the largest rise since April 2022. That’s the good news.
The not so good news? Sales of new homes in the U.S. dropped 4.7% in August and pending home sales missed expectations.
It is only logical that homeowners who bought in recent years would take advantage of the lower rates that dropped as financial markets priced in the prospect of Fed rate cuts. That said, it will likely take much lower mortgage rates to see a big swing higher in activity.
Why? 61% of U.S. homeowners hold a mortgage and 64% of those mortgages are locked at rates of 4% or lower. Even if mortgage rates dropped to 4.5%, only about 20% would have the money to either move and get a new mortgage or to refinance.
As the Fed continues easing monetary policy, we expect more turnover in the housing market, and more homeowners to tap into their home equity through refinancing and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). However, mortgage rates will likely need to fall significantly more from current levels before we see a meaningful pick up in the housing market. But the direction of travel is clear – rates are moving lower, which should still provide a pickup in housing turnover and housing supply, though likely not as fast as during previous cutting cycles.
2. China shook up global markets with a slew of policy announcements in response to weak macro data and property pressures. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) introduced several measures:
The Politburo reinforced their support for the economy, pledging stronger fiscal and monetary measures with a focus on the housing market and consumption and efforts to boost capital markets.
While the policies signal strong support and reduce downside risks, their impact may be limited and short-lived as they focus on broad credit supply rather than weak aggregate demand (which is the key challenge).
Key questions remain about the policies’ implementation and whether further fiscal stimulus will follow to support consumption and sustain recovery. Tactically, we see opportunities in the policy and momentum driven onshore equity market to catch up with the offshore market.
3. All the while, U.S. stocks continued to make #gains. Turns out that stocks like rate cuts and solid economic growth. The S&P 500 made four new all-time highs this week and currently sports a year-to-date return of over 20%, its best year-to-date performance since 1997.
The S&P 500 has spent roughly 66% of all trading days this year within 1% of an all-time high. That is well above the historical average. Over the last seven decades, the S&P 500 has spent only 20% of the time within 1% of an all-time high (inclusive of being at an all-time high).
Counterintuitively, runs like this can create uncertainty for investors. Is there more room for stocks to run? Have you missed the rally? Should I wait for a pullback to get invested?
While we did see a -8.5% drawdown from July highs, getting the timing just right is a difficult game to play. It is often better to just get invested. For example, looking at the average two-year forward price return of the S&P 500 from 1970 to today, investors were better off investing at an all-time high than on any random day.
While the main event usually gets the spotlight, this week reminded us that there is always something to learn, analyze and discuss beyond the biggest headlines.
Your J.P. Morgan advisor is here to help sift through the big and the small, preparing your portfolio for what may be on the road ahead.
All market and economic data as of 09/27/2024 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.
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