Contributors

Federico Cuevas

Global Investment Strategist

 

Slower growth, higher inflation – and markets don’t seem to mind 

This week, economic data wasn’t exactly a picture of stability. Yet, markets were largely unbothered. Consider:

  • Tariff-induced price increases are starting to show up in inflation data, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at 3.1% year-over-year – a 30-basis-point increase since the indicator bottomed in May. The details suggest that the tariff impact isn’t manifesting as a disruptive spike in prices, but rather a more gradual pass-through that we expect will continue in the months ahead.
  • Producer prices jumped 0.9% month-over-month for both headline and core in July. Over half of this broad-based increase was attributable to final demand trade services margins, which surged 2% – reflecting the markup between selling prices and purchase costs and signaling firms are exercising strong pricing power. This reinforces our view that inflation pressures will continue to build.
  • Job growth has slowed and while continuing unemployment claims fell modestly from last week’s level, they remain meaningfully higher than they were in January.
  • Commercial & industrial loan growth (the pace at which banks are lending to businesses for operations, equipment or expansion) topped 4% year-over-year. The pickup suggests that corporates are still willing to invest and look through tariff headwinds, even as surveys show subdued forward intentions for capex.

With all the data developments taken into account, the S&P 500 still managed to close above 6,400 for the first time ever this week, hitting yet another all-time high as investors focus on secular growth themes and better-than-expected earnings.

It’s the kind of macro backdrop that can make investors feel uneasy – and why, in our Mid-Year Outlook, we said that this is a time to focus on getting comfortably uncomfortable.

Based on data we see from our platform, clients have adopted the same mindset – looking through near-term noise and positioning for the forces that matter most over the long term. Against this backdrop, three trends stand out.

Flows into our in-house AI-related investment strategies in 2025 have already surpassed full-year 2024 totals

Secular trends are driving the market forward, rewarding those who lean into strength. Overall equity flows are slightly ahead compared to this time last year, with certain sectors making a significant impact. Key drivers include companies at the heart of the artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem – hardware, software and data infrastructure – delivering above-market earnings growth and raising forward guidance, reinforcing investor belief that AI is not just hype; its applications are already generating revenue. Looking ahead, AI is set to create a virtuous cycle: Higher productivity typically leads to margin protection and sustained capital spending.

This line chart shows Price and earnings, indexed, 100 = January 1, 2025 for S&P 500 Tech price and blended 1Y forward EPS.

 

Year-to-date flows into equity-linked structured notes are almost two times those from the same time last year

Clients who have been hesitant to add equity exposure at all-time highs have turned to structured notes – capturing market participation with built-in protection. On average, these strategies have been issued at a low double-digit yield with buffers on the downside. In today’s higher-rate, higher-volatility environment, they have offered a way to enhance yield, target high-conviction themes and stay invested while managing downside risk.

Infrastructure fund flows year-to-date are 1.5 times the total flows for all of 2024 

In the current environment, infrastructure has emerged as one of the most compelling ways to put capital to work. We’ve expanded our platform’s offering and it’s been resonating strongly with clients. This isn’t just about having more options available: It reflects investor demand for assets to diversify away from public markets, offer inflation-linked cash flows and tap into powerful demand drivers like AI’s need for digital infrastructure. With power as the largest infrastructure sector, rising electricity demand and an accelerating capex to improve grid resilience are creating multi-year growth opportunities – supported by long-term contracts and policy tailwinds. The combination of diversification, inflation-linked income and exposure to secular drivers makes it a compelling ballast in portfolios.

This chart shows rolling 1-year return from infrastructure income return and capital appreciation compared to a global 60/40 portfolio.

 

This same power demand story is playing out in public markets, particularly within the utilities sector. Here, earnings growth is expected to average 8% over the next five years – roughly double the sector’s historical pace – while valuations remain at a notable discount to the S&P 500, showing how certain public market segments are also benefiting from the structural tailwinds shaping the broader infrastructure landscape.

All in all, our clients have embraced the mantra of being comfortably uncomfortable – putting capital to work despite a slowing economy and an uneven macro backdrop. Investing – even at all-time highs – has historically led to consistent gains for long-term investors. Markets making new highs tend to make more of them and investing at these levels has not meaningfully impacted returns. By leaning into opportunities with defined outcomes, structural growth potential and inflation protection, they’ve stayed invested in a way that balances resilience with upside participation.

Chart 1 showing S&P 500 hit all-time highs from 1970 to present. Chart 2 shows investing at all-time highs yields future gains.

 

All market and economic data as of 08/15/25 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.


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