Alan Wynne
Global Investment Strategist
Rotation woes. Investors have spurned some of their favorite trades in favor of laggards for another week. The S&P 500 fell almost -2%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped -3.5%, and the “Magnificent 7” fell over -4.5%.
On the other hand, U.S. small caps popped another +2%, biotech spiked by over +5%, and the yen finally gained against the U.S. dollar.
Nvidia is now in its own bear market (down over -20% from its all-time high), but regional banks are finally higher than where they were when the U.S. mini banking crisis hit in March 2023.
Fixed income markets are feeling their own shift. Two-year yields have dropped by -8 basis points while the 10-year yield was flat. This kind of yield curve steepening (short-term yields moving down faster than long-term yields) is typical around the start of rate cutting cycles.
Indeed, yesterday’s first look at 2Q gross domestic product (GDP) showed the U.S. economy grew at a +2.8% annualized rate (faster than the 2% Street expectations). Growth is holding up, and inflation is no longer threatening. That should allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease policy rates. Futures markets suggest a 100% chance of a September rate cut. That is as strong a signal as any that it is time to step out of excess cash.
Now, we would forgive you for not noticing the moves in markets. The U.S. election is already taking up most of the airtime after all. In this week’s spotlight, we examine the extent to which the moves we are seeing in markets are being driven by changing perceptions of the U.S. election outcome.
Since 1950, there have been 18 presidential elections and 10 transitions in the White House between Democrats and Republicans. Over those 74 years, U.S. GDP growth has averaged a 3.2% annual pace, and the S&P 500 has compounded at 9.4% per year.
Despite the long-term trends, elections can introduce short-term volatility. Most of the focus this time has revolved around what a Trump/Vance victory might mean for markets given that the 2016 election caused notable moves across asset classes, and that most investors currently perceive Trump to be the favorite to win the White House.
What is the Trump trade? The Trump trade is a view that less regulation, lower taxes, less immigration and higher tariffs could benefit certain sectors and industries, and have important implications for inflation and bond yields.
What happened in 2016? An important piece of context for the 2016 election is that President Donald Trump’s victory was a surprise. It wouldn’t be this time. In 2016, investors quickly shook off initial fears that a protectionist agenda would hurt stocks, and instead embraced the prospect for corporate tax cuts and a focus on pro-growth policies like infrastructure investment.
The first “Trump trade” was most prominent in the month following the election. Before the 2016 election, the market was focused on sluggish growth, low inflation and low interest rates (aka “secular stagnation”). Trump’s policies were viewed as stimulative to nominal growth, and policymakers actually welcomed upward pressure on below-target inflation.
The first Trump trade was characterized by small caps (which outperformed large-cap equities by nearly 8%), the energy sector (which outperformed the broader index by over 10%), the 10-year Treasury bond (yields rose by almost 100 basis points) and the 2- and 10-year yield curves (which steepened by 17 basis points).
How are markets responding to the prospect of Trump 2.0? According to Real Clear Politics, betting markets gave Trump a 47% chance to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election on May 31. That rose nearly 19 percentage points to a peak of 66% on July 15. Since President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race, Trump’s odds have fallen about 10 points to 56%. We look at the rise and fall of Trump's winning odds over those periods and how the Trump 1.0 trades fared this time around.
Overall the Trump Trade 2.0 seems relatively inconclusive. Instead, it seems like markets are reacting more to the increasing likelihood that the Fed will be lowering interest rates with a backdrop of relatively decent underlying economic growth. However, certain sectors and industries may be more sensitive to changing election perceptions. Regional banks, for example, have reacted positively to an increase in Trump’s odds. Meanwhile, clean energy and Chinese stocks have been negatively impacted. The bottom line for investors is that we believe the growth, inflation and policy backdrop will be the primary drivers of market moves, but the election will matter underneath the surface.
Election years tend to bring similar levels of equity market volatility until October, when there is a noticeable uptick in the Volatility Index (VIX). But, since 1984 there has only been one election year where the market was lower 12 months after the election: that was in 2000 amid the tech bubble. Notably, implied equity market volatility falls relatively quickly after the new composition of government is confirmed and on average equities are higher 12 months after the election.
As always, reach out to your J.P. Morgan advisor, who is here to help.
The market update data is as of 07/25/24 and the analysis for the spotlight section is as of 07/24/24 and are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.
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The Chicago Board Option Exchange(CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), is a real-time index that represents the market’s expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 Index.
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The Russell 3000 Index is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 96% of the investable U.S. equity market.
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The Magnificent 7 Index is an equal-dollar weighted equity benchmark consisting of a fixed basket of 7 widely-traded companies (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) classified in the United States and representing the Communications, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors as defined by Bloomberg Industry Classification System (BICS).
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Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit, call, liquidity and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.
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