Mountain range visible in Munnar, Kerala, India. During Sun set time golden hour

By: Rashmi Gupta, Multi Asset Portfolio Manager

We receive a flood of inquiries about emerging and global markets and see many bright spots. India's economy, policies and technology make it one of the standouts. Managing Director Rashmi Gupta, a J.P. Morgan Private Bank Portfolio Manager, explains why.

You’re bullish on Indian equities, within a broader, long-term emerging markets portfolio. Why?

Rashmi Gupta: We think India is on the cusp of a new era, as it benefits from wide-ranging pro-growth reforms.

India’s real GDP growth rate of the past 20 years has averaged 6%–7% annually1 – which is higher than many developed and emerging markets – and we expect this trend to continue. Why do we think so?

The administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has focused on supporting economic growth, reducing the fiscal deficit and improving companies’ ease of doing business. Pro-growth policies include bankruptcy code reform, corporate tax cuts and reduced caps on foreign ownership in major sectors. Increased tax collection2 is allowing for investment in high-speed rail, subways, port-to-railway connections, etc. to further drive economic growth. Infrastructure development is an area where India had lagged. The Reserve Bank of India has revamped monetary policy to focus on reducing the risks to the Indian rupee and to stabilize inflation, measures to improve macroeconomic stability and support growth.

India’s expanding, working-age labor force could also help propel the next leg of economic growth. This demographic advantage makes India more attractive to domestic and foreign companies. People are also becoming wealthier, driving domestic demand.

Significantly, India is also one of the biggest beneficiaries of a geopolitical shift: the diversification of global supply chains. Geographically, India is a hub in Asia. It’s also a democracy, which is attractive to certain governments, including the United States.

How does this backdrop connect to potential investment returns?

GUPTA: Corporate earnings are starting to reflect India’s high GDP growth. Indian companies saw double-digit earnings growth in 2023, and the consensus among analysts is that this trend should continue.

Some equity markets don’t reflect the real economy – technology drives U.S. market returns, even though consumption dominates the economy. In India, the market really reflects the economy. For example, banks are the backbone of the economy and financials make up more than a quarter of India’s investible universe. India’s banking reforms and the clean-up of bank balance sheets have created a strong banking picture and opportunities for investors.

How is India poised to be a winner as supply chains diversify?

GUPTA: India is revitalizing its manufacturing capacity as lower tax rates for manufacturers make the country more competitive with East Asia. Take Apple as an example: it’s been ramping up iPhone production in India and plans to produce over a quarter of new iPhones in India. Auto manufacturers are moving to increase production in India. We’re seeing more pharma, electronics and other producers drawn to India’s location and tax incentives – and to its young, well-educated and inexpensive labor force, and growing middle class.

Bar chart showing the projected change in working age population from 2018 to 2028 across 10 countries

How does India being a technological powerhouse fit in?

GUPTA: India has harnessed digitalization to lift up the broad population and economy, to begin addressing the rural-urban gap and to create efficiencies – opening the door to new digital businesses and products, including payments and e-commerce.

The government has created a decentralized digital infrastructure platform, known as the “India Stack,” that is helping digitally transform the economy. One example: India’s universal biometric digital ID system, Aadhaar, has enrolled 99% of the population.3 You can use a fingerprint or iris scan as a unique identifier, even if you can’t read or write or don’t have a physical address. It lets anyone in the country access education, health care, welfare subsidies (with far less slippage), e-commerce, financial services and more. India’s digitalization is a real differentiator. It’s inclusive, free and doesn’t require having a certain app.

What should people know about India’s equity markets?

GUPTA: They’re deep, liquid, mature and well diversified across sectors and company types. The market tends to have a growth tilt, which makes sense for an emerging markets with an elevated growth outlook and opportunities driven by domestic consumption. But it also offers value- and commodities-tilted opportunities. We see opportunities across large, small and mid-caps. And retail flows into domestic mutual funds, by Indian investors, are strong. But the attractive earnings are the most important thing for us. We also see a lot of room for return on equity to improve. Companies have been focused on boosting margins and earnings.

Alongside the opportunities, what are the risks?

GUPTA: There are risks, and so diversification is always important. We do see opportunities across other emerging markets.

One of the main risks is Indian equities’ premium valuation versus history, and versus other emerging markets, although it’s not at extreme highs (and we think the fundamentals support these levels). India’s markets can also be sensitive to rises in rates.

India will hold presidential and state assembly elections in April and May, and a big change in leadership would pose a market risk, given that our investment case is so predicated on a growth-friendly administration. But we believe the market is pricing in continuity for Modi and his party. The other risks to consider apply to all global markets, such as the possibility of a deep recession in the U.S., and energy price, or other, external shocks.

How could Indian equities fit into an investor’s approach to emerging markets?

GUPTA: We recommend a balanced approach. While we have been overweight India for some time, other emerging markets equities also offer strong expected returns and earnings, different drivers of returns and less expensive valuations. It’s important for portfolios to have diversified return and risk drivers and positions with low correlations to each other.

We consider India a more defensive market that is appropriately paired with other emerging markets that trade at deeply discounted valuations – for example, Brazil and Mexico.

Closing thoughts, Rashmi?

GUPTA: We think India is among the most attractive long-term opportunities, as part of a diversified global equities portfolio.

India offers:

  • Meaningful pro-growth policy support
  • Unique demographic tailwinds supported by a young, well-educated and inexpensive labor force
  • Superior economic and earnings growth potential

While many investors focus on the risks of deglobalization, we believe India can and may be a big winner as global companies look to diversify their supply chains. Investing in India comes with risks, so diversification can help. We like to invest in India as part of a broad multi-country emerging markets strategy. Now might be a good time to take a look.

Could Indian equities be an appropriate addition, as part of your diversified portfolio? Reach out to a J.P. Morgan advisor to learn more.



India Annual GDP Constant 2011-12 Prices YoY, Central Statistics Office India, January 2023.


After another major reform, the simplified Goods and Services Tax (GST).


Mahendra Singh, “99% of Indians over 18 now have Aadhaar cards,” Times of India, January 28, 2017.

Connect with a Wealth Advisor

Our Wealth Advisors begin by getting to know you personally. To get started, tell us about your needs and we’ll reach out to you.

Connect now



All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.

All market and economic data as of December 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision.

This material is for informational purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by J.P. Morgan’s wealth management businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). Products and services described, as well as associated fees, charges and interest rates, are subject to change in accordance with the applicable account agreements and may differ among geographic locations. Not all products and services are offered at all locations. If you are a person with a disability and need additional support accessing this material, please contact your J.P. Morgan team or email us at for assistance. Please read all Important Information.

Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan representative.

NON-RELIANCECertain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

Legal Entity and Regulatory Information.

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

Bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

This document may provide information about the brokerage and investment advisory services provided by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”). The agreements entered into with JPMS, and corresponding disclosures provided with respect to the different products and services provided by JPMS (including our Form ADV disclosure brochure, if and when applicable), contain important information about the capacity in which we will be acting. You should read them all carefully. We encourage clients to speak to their JPMS representative regarding the nature of the products and services and to ask any questions they may have about the difference between brokerage and investment advisory services, including the obligation to disclose conflicts of interests and to act in the best interests of our clients.

J.P. Morgan may hold a position for itself or our other clients which may not be consistent with the information, opinions, estimates, investment strategies or views expressed in this document.  JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates may hold a position or act as market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or act as an underwriter, placement agent, advisor or lender to such issuer.