As we look toward 2026, the investment landscape is marked by transformation and complexity. J.P. Morgan’s Long Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs), now in its 30th year, provides a forward-looking framework to help you navigate these changes. Our research highlights that, even amid uncertainty, disciplined investors who remain diversified and informed can continue to find compelling opportunities.

The big picture: Shifting market landscapes and silver linings

This year’s LTCMAs are shaped by three influential forces:

Economic nationalism

Across the globe, shifting political dynamics and evolving policies are reshaping markets. Trade tensions and labor shortages have become more pronounced, but governments are responding with robust fiscal measures. Infrastructure spending and incentives for business investment are helping to narrow growth gaps between regions and support economic resilience.

Fiscal activism and investment

Governments are taking a proactive stance, not just discussing growth but actively investing in it. Fiscal stimulus is driving up deficits, yet it is also fueling corporate profits and productivity. This environment creates a backdrop of strong earnings and new opportunities, particularly in sectors linked to infrastructure and innovation.

Technology’s productivity boom

The pace of technological advancement continues to accelerate. Innovations in artificial intelligence, automation and digitalization are boosting productivity and reshaping entire industries. For investors, this means the potential for outsized returns in companies and sectors that are positioned to harness these trends.

What J.P. Morgan’s LTCMAs could mean for your investment portfolio

Despite a modest dip in U.S. growth expectations, the outlook for long-term returns remains constructive. The classic 60/40 portfolio – 60% equities, 40% bonds – continues to offer solid potential, with projected returns holding steady from last year. However, the nuances within each asset class are where the real opportunities lie:

Equities

U.S. stocks remain a cornerstone of strength, supported by resilient corporate profits even as valuations stay elevated. Global equities are expected to double over the next decade and emerging markets offer even greater growth potential. Private equity stands out as a top performer, reflecting the ongoing shift toward private assets and innovation-driven companies.

Bonds

After years of subdued yields, bond investors have reason for renewed optimism. Higher starting yields and steeper yield curves point to improved returns, especially for intermediate treasuries and high yield bonds. Increased inflation volatility is resetting risk premiums, making bonds a more attractive component of diversified portfolios.

Alternatives and real assets

Hedge funds and private assets are poised to be significant contributors, offering attractive opportunities for alpha and diversification. Real estate and infrastructure are benefiting from both innovation and fiscal investment, while commodities –especially gold – are experiencing their strongest cycle since the early 2000s.

The power of diversification

One of the most important messages from this year’s LTCMAs is the enduring value of diversification. Currency movements, particularly a weaker U.S. dollar, are expected to boost returns for international assets. By looking beyond your home market and incorporating global opportunities, you can benefit from both higher returns and reduced risk.

Incorporating alternative investments into a traditional portfolio may help diversify your holdings and manage risk. This approach could offer additional ways to navigate market volatility and adapt to evolving market conditions.

Risks to watch heading into 2026

While the outlook is positive, it’s not without risks. Economic nationalism and policy shifts can create market friction and uncertainty. Inflation is expected to be slightly higher, and volatility may increase in certain areas. It remains important for your long-term assets to be invested in strategies designed to outpace inflation and adapt to changing market conditions. Work with your J.P. Morgan advisor to ensure your portfolio remains aligned with your goals and risk tolerance.

Looking ahead: Opportunity in change

The 2026 LTCMAs reflect a world that is both familiar and new. The forces of politics, policy and technology are reshaping markets, but the fundamentals of investing remain unchanged: Stay diversified, focus on your long-term objectives and be ready to adapt.

Whether you’re building a portfolio for retirement, saving for a major purchase, or seeking to grow your wealth, the outlook for stocks, bonds and alternatives remains attractive. By staying informed and working closely with your J.P. Morgan advisor, you may be better prepared to respond to potential opportunities in the future.

These assumptions are based on our view of the world over the next 10 to 15 years. Markets can change and it’s important to review your strategy regularly. With a thoughtful approach and a focus on the long term, you can navigate shifting landscapes and find your own silver linings in 2026 and beyond.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations.

“Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control.

Equities: The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to "stock market risk" meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.​

Bonds: Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.

Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. Alternative investments involve greater risks than traditional investments and should not be deemed a complete investment program. They are not tax efficient and an investor should consult with his/her tax advisor prior to investing. Alternative investments have higher fees than traditional investments and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. The value of the investment may fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than they invested.​

Diversification and asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets.

The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada.

The S&P 500, also known as Standard and Poor's 500, is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equities market. The index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 Index focuses on the large-cap segment of the market; however, since it includes a significant portion of the total value of the market, it also represents the market.

The MSCI USA Large Cap Index is designed to measure the performance of the large cap segments of the US market. With 238 constituents, the index covers approximately 70% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the US.

The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

Values represent JPMAM’s broad asset class views within the LTCMA forward looking framework, which are for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. These values are not intended to reflect actual or future performance results of any specific vehicle, product, service, strategy or security.

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