Outlook

MID-YEAR OUTLOOK | 2025
Comfortably uncomfortable

Investors are shaken. The building blocks they had taken for granted – a durable economic expansion, limited new barriers to global trade, and continued spending on artificial intelligence – are suddenly at risk. Lofty expectations at the start of the year have collided with a far rougher reality.

   

Handling market volatility in 2025

Head of Investment Strategy Elyse Ausenbaugh highlights key insights from the 2025 Mid-Year Outlook and how investors should think about tariffs, U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar, AI and more.

2025 Mid-Year Outlook Overview, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

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J.P. MORGAN WEALTH MANAGEMENT

2025 Mid-Year Outlook

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INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:

  • NOT A DEPOSIT
  • NOT FDIC INSURED
  • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY
  • NO BANK GUARANTEE
  • MAY LOSE VALUE

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ELYSE AUSENBAUGH

HEAD OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY

J.P. MORGAN WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Elyse Ausenbaugh:

Bullish. That's how most investors entered 2025. Especially given a backdrop characterized by cooling inflation, a solid labor market, strong corporate earnings prospects and expectations for a pro-growth policy environment. But instead, we've seen a flurry of tariff announcements efforts to cut government spending, and concerns about the growth outlook conspire to shake investors' confidence about the path ahead.

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Low investor confidence due to:

  • Tariff announcements
  • Government spending cut efforts
  • Growth outlook

Elyse Ausenbaugh:

We're dealing with stable fundamentals today, but deep uncertainty about tomorrow. If that has you feeling a bit skittish about markets, know that you're not alone, and that we're here to help. Our Mid-Year Outlook is all about getting comfortably uncomfortable in the current environment. In it, we explore five essential questions that can help you find opportunity in uncertainty.

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Five essential questions to help investors find opportunity amid uncertainty

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  • SHOULD INVESTORS CHEER OR FEAR TRUMP 2.0?
    (Logo: A bear and bull, symbolizing market volatility)
  • IS YOUR PORTFOLIO RESILIENT TO GROWING RISKS?
    (Logo: A shield, representing protection and resilience)
  • IS THIS THE DOWNFALL OF THE U.S. DOLLAR?
    (Logo: Four currencies - dollar, pound, euro, yen - indicating global currency dynamics)
  • WHY ISN'T ANYONE TALKING ABOUT AI ANYMORE?
    (Logo: A brain with synapses, symbolizing artificial intelligence)
  • WHAT'S THE DEAL WITH DEALMAKING?
    (Logo: A handshake, representing agreements and partnerships)

Elyse Ausenbaugh:

Should investors cheer or fear Trump 2.0? Is your portfolio resilient to growing risks? Is this the downfall of the U.S. dollar? Why isn't anyone talking about Al anymore? And what's the deal with dealmaking?

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Source: J.P. Morgan Wealth Management. As of May 2025.

Elyse Ausenbaugh:

Learn more about why we think the U.S. economy can avoid a recession, where we see upside potential in the market landscape, and what to consider to bolster the resilience of your financial plan by visiting our 2025 Mid-Year Outlook.

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J.P. Morgan WEALTH MANAGEMENT

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For more insights, please visit JPMORGAN.COM/MIDYEAROUTLOOK

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All market and economic data are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the speaker's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions --including whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with any investment or financial service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.

Investing in securities involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. (In bold) Outlooks and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through (in bold) J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Handling market volatility in 2025

Head of Investment Strategy Elyse Ausenbaugh highlights key insights from the 2025 Mid-Year Outlook and how investors should think about tariffs, U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar, AI and more.

   

1

Should investors cheer or fear Trump 2.0?

Economic growth and corporate earnings are facing headwinds from tariffs and broader policy uncertainty. These risks seem likely to fuel more near-term volatility, but the strength of the macroeconomic starting point could help markets endure the pressure. With expectations for lower interest rates and deregulation, we believe stock markets in the U.S., Europe and Japan could reach new highs within the next year.

Read more (PDF)

   

2

Is your portfolio resilient to growing risks?

In the decade following the Global Financial Crisis, U.S. assets – especially stocks – thrived in an environment characterized by better economic growth, low inflation and low interest rates. Now, investors confront risks to both growth and inflation amid ongoing policy uncertainty. It is a significant shift with crucial implications, prompting a need to revisit ways to enhance portfolio resilience. Consider the broad spectrum of options to do so.

Read more (PDF)

   

3

Is this the downfall of the U.S. dollar?

Fears of the U.S. dollar’s demise are likely overstated. Its status as the world’s reserve currency remains well-entrenched, but that doesn’t mean that we aren’t entering a phase of dollar depreciation after a period of strength. To mitigate the risks, explore ways to hold exposure to other currencies like the euro and yen. Building a globally diversified portfolio can help you do so.

Read more (PDF)

   

4

Why isn’t anyone talking about AI anymore?

Artificial intelligence (AI) models are quickly getting “smarter” – and at lower costs. Those like DeepSeek, released by a Chinese startup earlier this year, have challenged investor assumptions about the future of AI. Agentic AI programs that can perform with human-like intelligence will likely define the next wave of software innovation. Expect better user experiences, accelerated adoption and productivity gains across sectors and geographies. Investors may have lost focus on AI through a policy-dominated springtime, but it deserves attention now more than ever.

Read more (PDF)

   

5

What’s the deal with dealmaking?

After learning the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the consensus assumption on Wall Street was for a revitalization of dealmaking and capital market activity. This has yet to materialize. While private market transactions have proceeded at a reasonable clip, public market activity – like initial public offerings – remains subdued. It’s worth keeping a close eye on how market-friendly the new leadership of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission will be.

Read more (PDF)

   

Closing thoughts: Comfortably uncomfortable

As we strive to help investors find opportunity in uncertainty, each element of our outlook leads to a consistent conclusion: the value of diversification. That considered, we are keen to note that diversification is an outcome of an effective goal-aligned approach to your finances – not the objective. Thorough consideration of factors like your starting point, time horizon, risk tolerance and expected contributions and distributions help determine which risks you may need or be willing to take in different parts of your portfolio. Keep the intentions for your money centered as you build and evolve your wealth plan.

 

   

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