Outlook

MID-YEAR OUTLOOK | 2025
Comfortably uncomfortable

Investors are shaken. The building blocks they had taken for granted – a durable economic expansion, limited new barriers to global trade, and continued spending on artificial intelligence – are suddenly at risk. Lofty expectations at the start of the year have collided with a far rougher reality.

   

1

Should investors cheer or fear Trump 2.0?

Economic growth and corporate earnings are facing headwinds from tariffs and broader policy uncertainty. These risks seem likely to fuel more near-term volatility, but the strength of the macroeconomic starting point could help markets endure the pressure. With expectations for lower interest rates and deregulation, we believe stock markets in the U.S., Europe and Japan could reach new highs within the next year.

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2

Is your portfolio resilient to growing risks?

In the decade following the Global Financial Crisis, U.S. assets – especially stocks – thrived in an environment characterized by better economic growth, low inflation and low interest rates. Now, investors confront risks to both growth and inflation amid ongoing policy uncertainty. It is a significant shift with crucial implications, prompting a need to revisit ways to enhance portfolio resilience. Consider the broad spectrum of options to do so.

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3

Is this the downfall of the U.S. dollar?

Fears of the U.S. dollar’s demise are likely overstated. Its status as the world’s reserve currency remains well-entrenched, but that doesn’t mean that we aren’t entering a phase of dollar depreciation after a period of strength. To mitigate the risks, explore ways to hold exposure to other currencies like the euro and yen. Building a globally diversified portfolio can help you do so.

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4

Why isn’t anyone talking about AI anymore?

Artificial intelligence (AI) models are quickly getting “smarter” – and at lower costs. Those like DeepSeek, released by a Chinese startup earlier this year, have challenged investor assumptions about the future of AI. Agentic AI programs that can perform with human-like intelligence will likely define the next wave of software innovation. Expect better user experiences, accelerated adoption and productivity gains across sectors and geographies. Investors may have lost focus on AI through a policy-dominated springtime, but it deserves attention now more than ever.

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5

What’s the deal with dealmaking?

After learning the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the consensus assumption on Wall Street was for a revitalization of dealmaking and capital market activity. This has yet to materialize. While private market transactions have proceeded at a reasonable clip, public market activity – like initial public offerings – remains subdued. It’s worth keeping a close eye on how market-friendly the new leadership of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission will be.

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Closing thoughts: Comfortably uncomfortable

As we strive to help investors find opportunity in uncertainty, each element of our outlook leads to a consistent conclusion: the value of diversification. That considered, we are keen to note that diversification is an outcome of an effective goal-aligned approach to your finances – not the objective. Thorough consideration of factors like your starting point, time horizon, risk tolerance and expected contributions and distributions help determine which risks you may need or be willing to take in different parts of your portfolio. Keep the intentions for your money centered as you build and evolve your wealth plan.

 

   

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Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. Alternative investments involve greater risks than traditional investments and should not be deemed a complete investment program. They are not tax-efficient, and an investor should consult with his/her tax advisor prior to investing. Alternative investments have higher fees than traditional investments, and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. The value of the investment may fall as well as rise, and investors may get back less than they invested.

Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage. The value of commodity-linked derivative instruments may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Use of leveraged commodity-linked derivatives creates an opportunity for increased return but, at the same time, creates the possibility for greater loss.

Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.

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