The federal government shut down October 1, halting a wide range of payments and services deemed non-essential. The shutdown comes as Congress failed to pass its annual budget to fund government operations due to disagreements over health care spending. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which produces the monthly jobs report, is considered non-essential and will suspend nearly all its operations for the duration of the shutdown. Based on the Labor Department’s contingency plan published earlier this week, this means that the September jobs report, which was originally scheduled for release on Friday, October 3, will likely be postponed until after the government reopens.
This comes on the heels of increased scrutiny of the jobs report following the BLS’ downward revision of job numbers for May and June and the August 1 firing of BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer. The last jobs report, released in September, highlighted that job growth has stalled, with only 22,000 jobs added against expectations of 75,000.
Despite these factors and the likely delay of September data, there are indications that the job market is holding stable. “While labor demand is clearly soft, what’s more important is that beneath the surface, the current labor market is best characterized as a ‘low hire, low fire’ one. Companies appear to be holding steady more than anything else – reluctant to expand their workforces aggressively, but also hesitant to make significant cuts,” explained Omar Anabtawi, Global Investment Strategist for J.P. Morgan Wealth Management. “On balance though, we would argue that the labor market is incrementally loosening rather than tightening. Our preferred gauge for how tight the labor market is, the quits rate divided by the layoff rate, has now fallen below 2019 levels.”
Still, the likely delay of September’s jobs report creates uncertainty and potentially impacts the Federal Reserve and its decision making during a period when many had assumed the U.S. was entering into an interest rate cutting cycle.
Here's a look at the reports on the labor market that will likely not be released during the government shutdown:
Employment Situation Summary, aka “the jobs report”
- Produced by: BLS
- How it's gathered: Two separate surveys – one asks households about their work status, and another asks employers about their payrolls
- When it comes out: First Friday of each month
- What data it provides: The unemployment rate, the number of net jobs added or lost, wage trends and details on hiring and firing by age, race and education level
- How it’s used: This is the main report everyone from the Federal Reserve (Fed) to your local news uses to understand if the job market is getting better or worse for workers and companies.
- What the latest report told us: The August report showed employers only added 22,000 jobs, below expectations. Unemployment stayed relatively low at 4.3%, but younger workers struggled the most. People in their early 20s saw unemployment hit 9.2%, the highest since spring 2021. This suggests companies are being much more careful about hiring new workers, especially for entry-level positions.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
- Produced by: BLS
- How it's gathered: Monthly survey asking employers how many job openings they have and how many people they hired, fired or who quit
- When it comes out: First Tuesday of the month, with a one-month lag
- What data it provides: The number of job openings, hiring rates, quit rates and layoff rates by industry
- How it's used: Clarifies whether companies are optimistic about growth (e.g., there are lots of job postings) and whether workers feel secure enough to leave for better jobs
- What the latest report told us: The August JOLTS data showed job openings essentially unchanged from July at 7.2 million, while the hiring rate declined to 3.2%. That hiring level is comparable to late 2010 or 2011, when the unemployment rate was around 9%. Only 1.9% of workers felt confident enough to quit for something better, down from nearly 3% during the pandemic job-switching boom. Meanwhile, layoffs stayed low.
Weekly unemployment insurance claims
- Produced by: Labor Department
- How it's gathered: Weekly reports from state unemployment offices on new and continuing claims
- When it comes out: Every Thursday for the prior week
- What data it provides: Initial unemployment claims (newly unemployed) and continuing claims (still unemployed for consecutive weeks)
- How it's used: The quickest way to spot if layoffs are increasing week by week, and whether people are finding new jobs quickly or staying unemployed longer
- What the latest report told us: About 218,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending September 20, which is lower than the same time last year. But people who are unemployed are staying that way longer, with continuing claims up about 5% from last year, suggesting that it's taking longer to find work once you lose your job.
While BLS’ jobs report serves as a key barometer of employment levels in the U.S., various surveys and private-sector sources can provide some insights during the shutdown should data be delayed. Many of these alternative indicators still ultimately depend on BLS data in some form, so an extended shutdown could create broader issues across the data ecosystem.
These surveys represent what economists call "soft data" – information based on sentiment and expectations rather than precise counts. Think of soft data like asking business owners, "Are you hiring more?" while hard data is more akin to counting actual paychecks. Both are useful, but feelings can change faster than actual hiring and firing decisions.
Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators
- Produced by: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, released for the first time on September 23, 2025
- How it's gathered: Uses computer models that combine official government data with real-time information like online job searches, online job postings and unemployment claims
- When it comes out: Updated twice per month
- What data it provides: Real-time estimates of unemployment, layoffs and hiring rates
- How it's used: This is a brand-new measurement that aims to help fill the gap between official monthly reports by estimating what's happening in the job market in real time.
- What the latest report told us: The Chicago Fed's model forecasts the September unemployment rate at 4.34%, suggesting a moderate increase in unemployment from August's 4.32%. The report also signals a slight slowdown in hiring and a pickup in layoffs.
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys
- Produced by: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global
- How it's gathered: Monthly surveys asking purchasing managers about business conditions, including employment
- When it comes out: Monthly
- What data it provides: Whether companies in manufacturing and services are planning to expand their workforce, along with other details on their business activity
- How it's used: The survey is a forward-looking indicator of what companies are planning to do with hiring, based on how optimistic they feel about business conditions.
- What the latest report told us: Hiring is slowing, but some industries are seeing more of an impact. The ISM Manufacturing PMI employment index registered 45.3% in September, up from 43.8% in August (anything below 50% means more companies are cutting jobs than adding them). The ISM Services survey for August (September data comes out October 3) showed services employment contracting for the third month in a row. Meanwhile, the S&P Global surveys showed modest hiring growth in manufacturing in September and in services in August.,
The Fed, which is the U.S. central bank, has a challenging job. It influences interest rates, financial regulations and the amount of money in the economy with the ultimate goal of maintaining maximum employment and price stability. It relies on federal data to monitor trends in unemployment and inflation to inform their decisions on whether to stimulate or restrict the economy.
The government shutdown will disrupt the Fed’s access to some key data on the hiring market, and if it extends for multiple weeks, it could also limit the Fed’s visibility into cost-of-living trends by delaying the monthly government inflation reports. It’s difficult to know how comfortable the Fed will be in making significant changes to interest rates without access to this data, creating uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of future interest rate adjustments.
Markets and therefore investors tend not to like uncertainty and prefer to have as much insight into economic trends as possible. The absence of official employment data creates information gaps that have the potential to increase market volatility.
Before the government shutdown, market participants were anticipating that the Fed would continue its latest rate-cutting cycle, which began in September. It remains to be seen how the likely delays to employment data and other federal economic reports could shift expectations about the Fed’s upcoming policy moves, and therefore impact markets.
Nevertheless, investors shouldn’t pivot from their existing strategy based on this news. “While the labor market is incrementally loosening, further deterioration (i.e. layoffs) is unlikely without major declines in companies’ profits and associated margin compression. Currently, margins are near their highest of the cycle while mentions of ‘job cuts’ in corporate communications are falling,” Anabtawi noted.
The government shutdown has likely limited the availability of key employment data. While private-sector and state government alternatives provide some insights, none can fully replace the analysis offered by official statistics. The uncertainty surrounding the jobs market should eventually be solved when the shutdown ends, but the likely delay could complicate decision making across financial markets and monetary policy in the near term.
