Quick shot: Build it and they will come: The Fed’s latest support measures
The formal job of the Fed is to keep inflation in check and maximize employment, but our central bank also serves a crucial role as the bedrock of the banking system.
The formal job of the Fed is to keep inflation in check and maximize employment, but our central bank also serves a crucial role as the bedrock of the banking system. As such, since the Global Financial crisis, the Fed has expanded its toolkit to offer various ways to restore or maintain financial stability when that stability is threatened.
Last weekend, the FDIC, Fed, and Treasury jointly announced efforts to make depositors at the recently failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank whole, and boost confidence in the broader financial system. Beyond guaranteeing all deposits at SVB and Signature, the Fed introduced a new emergency facility to make it easier for all banks to get the liquidity (i.e., access to cash) that they may need in times of stress. That program is called the Bank Term Funding Program, or BTFP.
Already, the data shows that banks are making use of the measures. Banks tapped the Fed’s discount window (which is the Fed’s main direct lending facility that enables it to lend banks money) for $153 billion, and the new BTFP also had about $12bn loans taken out by only its third day of existence. Roughly ~$100bn of the new borrowing came from First Republic, suggesting that banks beyond just SVB and Signature are relying on the Fed for liquidity right now.
We believe policymakers are trying to ring-fence weak links in the banking system in order to arrest a downward spiral for the entirety of it. Accomplishing that mission may take time, further or more powerful forms of central bank intervention, company-specific capital raises at much lower valuations, or some combination of these measures. Either way, the actions taken so far suggest that policymakers are willing to do what it takes to contain the turmoil before it mounts into a crisis.
Banks are tapping liquidity sources from the Fed
All market data from Bloomberg Finance L.P., 3/20/23
All market and economic data as of March 20, 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.
The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The Bloomberg Eco Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.
Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.
The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to 'stock market risk' meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.
Structured products involve derivatives and risks that may not be suitable for all investors. The most common risks include, but are not limited to, risk of adverse or unanticipated market developments, issuer credit quality risk, risk of lack of uniform standard pricing, risk of adverse events involving any underlying reference obligations, risk of high volatility, risk of illiquidity/little to no secondary market, and conflicts of interest. Before investing in a structured product, investors should review the accompanying offering document, prospectus or prospectus supplement to understand the actual terms and key risks associated with the each individual structured product. Any payments on a structured product are subject to the credit risk of the issuer and/or guarantor. Investors may lose their entire investment, i.e., incur an unlimited loss. The risks listed above are not complete. For a more comprehensive list of the risks involved with this particular product, please speak to your J.P. Morgan team.
We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.
- Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
- The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
- Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
- The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
- Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.
All companies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as a recommendation or endorsement by J.P. Morgan in this context.
Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise. Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.
This material is for information purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by J.P. Morgan’s wealth management businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). The views and strategies described in the material may not be suitable for all investors and are subject to investment risks. Please read all Important Information.
- The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS. Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.
NON-RELIANCE. Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.
Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.
LEGAL ENTITY, BRAND & REGULATORY INFORMATION
In the United States, bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.
J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Securities-based lines of credit are extended at the discretion of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“Chase Bank”) and Chase Bank has no commitment to extend a line of credit or make loans available to you under a line of credit. Any loan extended under a securities-based line of credit is subject to credit approval by Chase Bank and, if approved, the terms and conditions contained in definitive loan documentation governing the line of credit. Proceeds from a securities-based line of credit cannot be used to purchase, carry or trade securities. A line of credit collateralized by the securities in your investment account(s) involves certain risks and may not be suitable for all borrowers. Chase Bank assigns values to these securities and, at any time and without notice to you, may increase or decrease these values or change the eligibility of these securities as collateral. A decline in the value of these securities collateralizing your securities-based line of credit (whether due to a market downturn, market volatility or otherwise) directly impacts the amount of credit available to you and may require you to provide additional collateral and/or pay down your line of credit in order to avoid the forced sale of these securities by Chase Bank. The securities in your account may be sold to meet a collateral shortfall, and Chase Bank may sell your securities without contacting you. Some or all of the securities sold to meet a collateral shortfall may be sold at prices higher than their initial cost, which may result in adverse tax consequences. You should consult your tax advisor to fully understand the tax implications associated with pledging securities in connection with a loan. Please review these and other risks in more detail with your advisor, and make sure to read your line of credit documentation carefully so that you fully understand your obligations and the risks associated with this opportunity. An exercise of remedies by Chase Bank in connection with your securities-based line of credit may a ect the performance of your investment management or investment advisory account(s), and may cause such accounts to no longer conform to applicable investment guidelines. When selling securities, Chase Bank is not required to act in accordance with any fiduciary duty Chase Bank and its a liates might otherwise have as your investment manager or investment advisor. It is important to note that Chase Bank and its a liates may earn more if you borrow against your securities and other assets rather than liquidate assets to meet your cash needs. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”) is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities. The SOFR is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is determined based on certain transactions in the U.S. dollar Treasury repo market. Since the SOFR is an overnight rate, it is published every Banking Day, but is e ective for the Banking Day prior to the date of publication. Refer to your definitive loan documentation for a definition of “Banking Day.” Because the SOFR is administered by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Bank has no control over its determination, calculation or publication, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York may alter the methods of calculation, publication schedule, rate revision practices or availability of the SOFR at any time without notice. The SOFR is a floating interest rate option, and changes in the SOFR can lead to a higher or lower cost of borrowing.