The Pandemic Gap
A lot of data is being thrown around on the coronavirus and most of it requires very careful analysis before drawing conclusions.
Here’s what is clear: the rate of reported infections outside China is now accelerating at a similar rate to what was happening a month and a half ago in China. The part that’s less clear: what it all means for ultimate infection and mortality rates, which governments around the world are now responding to in cascading fashion.
In this note, we sort through the available data on COVID-19, the critical distinction between the “infected” and the “sick”, how to understand mortality rates and important context around the Spanish flu in a pre-antibiotic world.
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