Research
Global Data Watch
- Curbing our enthusiasm
- 30 Jan 2012
Activity readings have generally surprised to the upside during December and January, and we are in the midst of our first upward revision to global growth in some time. The Euro area economy is now expected to stabilize this quarter (previously -1.5% q/q saar) and an upward revision to the ASEAN region looks likely after the release of next week’s January PMI surveys. These changes reinforce the message that downside risks have receded—particularly risks that the Euro area would contract sharply or experience a bank funding crisis. However, there remain material constraints on global growth this year that curb our enthusiasm to extrapolate recent upside surprises. We maintain the view that global growth will rise in a gradual but bumpy manner.
Daily Economic Briefing
| February 2, 2012 | 02 Feb 2012 |
| February 1, 2012 | 01 Feb 2012 |
| January 31, 2012 | 31 Jan 2012 |
| January 30, 2012 | 30 Jan 2012 |
| January 26, 2012 | 26 Jan 2012 |
Features
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2012 should turn out better for risk markets, even as it will likely be volatile and start hesitantly, producing a mirror image to 2011’s first-strong-then-weak performance. |
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Policy failures in the US and Europe have darkened prospects for potential and actual economic growth heading into 2012. This, in turn, has resulted in a poor near-term outlook for the benchmark indices in commodities, which are not as supply constrained as a year ago. |
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Note: Global Data Watch is updated every Wednesday. Daily Economic Briefing is updated with a 1-day delay and is not published on Fridays.