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Global Data Watch
- Because something is happening here
- 06 Feb 2012
We have expected the global economy to lift during 1H12 following a bumpy and gradual path. The manufacturing sector was anticipated to lead, bouncing into the new year as the damage from Thai flooding faded (see “What’s behind the bounce in global manufacturing?” in this GDW). However, this sector’s recovery will likely fade soon as the global inventory adjustment has further to run and global consumer demand slows. The latest activity data track the contours of this story. Indeed, global IP surged in December and indications from the US and Japan point to another strong gain this month. Meanwhile, global retail sales gains stalled over November and December.
Daily Economic Briefing
| February 6, 2012 | 06 Feb 2012 |
| February 2, 2012 | 02 Feb 2012 |
| February 1, 2012 | 01 Feb 2012 |
| January 31, 2012 | 31 Jan 2012 |
| January 30, 2012 | 30 Jan 2012 |
Features
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2012 should turn out better for risk markets, even as it will likely be volatile and start hesitantly, producing a mirror image to 2011’s first-strong-then-weak performance. |
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Policy failures in the US and Europe have darkened prospects for potential and actual economic growth heading into 2012. This, in turn, has resulted in a poor near-term outlook for the benchmark indices in commodities, which are not as supply constrained as a year ago. |
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Note: Global Data Watch is updated every Wednesday. Daily Economic Briefing is updated with a 1-day delay and is not published on Fridays.